Game Recap: EDM 3, SJS 2, April 3, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM3

FinalThu, Apr 3, 2025Every game that night

SJS2

EDM beat SJS 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.74 expected goals to 1.86. EDM outshot SJS 38 to 29. J. Skinner led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Kulak had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. C. Pickard stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	1	2	0	3
SJS	1	1	0	2

1st 6:22EDMC. Brown0.21 xG
1st 8:10SJSJ. Thompson0.06 xG
2nd 2:59EDMV. ArvidssonPP0.15 xG
2nd 8:48SJST. Toffoli0.27 xG
2nd 14:57EDMJ. Skinner0.16 xG

Team Stats

EDMSJS

38Shots on goal29

2.74Expected goals1.86

65Shot attempts46

335v5 shots on goal28

1/2Power play0/1

17Hits15

9Blocked shots15

2Penalty minutes4

8Giveaways17

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.74 xGSJS 1.86 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM37 on goal, 3 scored

SJS29 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Skinner	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	13:30	0:27
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	5	0	1	-1	0	17:58	1:46
C. Brown	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+2	0	16:12	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+2	0	15:11	0:00
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	10:04	1:14
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	21:32	1:46
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	18:08	1:46
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	3	3	-1	0	17:01	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:20	0:59
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	12:28	0:27
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	12:25	0:00
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	9:42	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	2	2	0	0	0	+1	0	20:28	1:46
J. Walman	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	21:21	0:27
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	0	24:00	0:27
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	7	1	1	+1	0	19:05	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:25	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	29	27	2	.931	59:08	Win
O. Rodrigue	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	21:09	2:00
T. Toffoli	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	19:47	1:24
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	19:36	1:55
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	21:57	1:54
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	20:25	1:34
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	2	15:06	0:36
C. Lund	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	-2	0	14:01	0:06
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:53	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	11:30	0:00
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	11:22	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	10:43	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	9:08	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	2	2	2	2	1	+2	0	24:41	0:00
J. Thompson	D	1	0	1	3	2	2	-1	0	13:19	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	26:43	0:26
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:43	0:00
M. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:47	0:00
L. Carlsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	14:42	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
G. Romanov	38	35	3	.921	57:15	Loss
G. Carriere	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDarnell Nurse SJS Faces EDM, his team until Apr 20264 SOG
Old teamJake Walman EDM Faces SJS, his team until Mar 20251 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 4.0, SJS 2.8	EDM 3, SJS 2
Total goals	6.9	5
Shots on goal	EDM 33.2, SJS 27.3	EDM 38, SJS 29
Win chance	EDM 67%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.5	1	1.65	1	49%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	3.3	2	0.81	1	26%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.0	2	0.84	0	39%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	3.0	4	0.74	1	32%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	0	1.02	2	18%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.6	5	0.67	1	25%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.5	4	0.54	0	12%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.5	3	0.68	2	29%	1
EDM J. Walman	2.2	1	0.53	1	14%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.2	1	0.89	0	26%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.0	0	0.66	0	20%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.8	1	0.67	0	20%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.6	2	0.23	0	12%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.6	1	0.37	0	14%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.5	2	0.39	1	12%	1
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	2	0.52	0	24%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.4	7	0.36	0	7%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.4	3	0.31	0	8%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.3	2	0.40	0	16%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.3	3	0.39	0	19%	0
SJS L. Carlsson	1.2	2	0.30	0	9%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.2	2	0.35	0	13%	0
SJS J. Thompson	1.2	3	0.21	1	7%	1
SJS N. Gregor	1.1	1	0.17	0	9%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	0	0.46	1	15%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	2	0.23	2	6%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.9	0	0.32	1	11%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	0	0.20	0	10%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.9	2	0.21	0	8%	0
EDM M. Jones	0.9	0	0.20	0	8%	0
SJS M. Vlasic	0.8	1	0.18	0	5%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	1	0.21	0	2%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.8	3	0.16	0	4%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	0	0.10	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.