EDM beat SJS 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.89 expected goals to 1.39. EDM outshot SJS 28 to 18. T. Emberson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Dineen had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. S. Skinner stopped 18 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 8:20EDMT. Emberson0.02 xG
- 2nd 10:17EDMM. Jones0.13 xG
- 3rd 17:23EDMC. PerryEN0.19 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 2.89 xGSJS 1.39 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Perry | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:37 | 2:58 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:31 | 2:57 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:43 | 2:55 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:14 | 1:02 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:49 | 1:03 |
| M. Jones | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:32 | 1:05 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 2:55 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:07 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hutson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:28 | 1:05 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | +1 | 0 | 27:53 | 0:27 |
| C. Dineen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 23:17 | 0:39 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:45 | 2:54 |
| J. Brown | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 18 | 18 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:14 | Win |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:49 | 0:59 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:48 | 1:03 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:14 | 0:59 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:12 | 1:03 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:26 | 1:03 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:19 | 1:01 |
| D. Gushchin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:59 | 1:01 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| C. Lund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:54 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:07 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:15 | 0:00 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:06 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:16 | 1:01 |
| L. Carlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:18 | 1:05 |
| J. Schuldt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:47 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 58:51 | Loss |
| G. Romanov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 4.1, SJS 2.8 | EDM 3, SJS 0 |
| Total goals | 6.9 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 33.6, SJS 26.6 | EDM 28, SJS 18 |
| Win chance | EDM 68% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.2 | 2 | 0.83 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 3.1 | 3 | 0.74 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 3.1 | 1 | 1.08 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.0 | 1 | 1.73 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 3.0 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.4 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 2.4 | 2 | 0.92 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.1 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 2.0 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 2.0 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.9 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.6 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.5 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.5 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| EDM C. Dineen | 1.5 | 4 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS D. Gushchin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.3 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS L. Carlsson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.3 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS N. Gregor | 1.3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS C. Lund | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM M. Jones | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 2 | 3% | 1 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.9 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS M. Vlasic | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM J. Brown | 0.8 | 3 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS J. Schuldt | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.