Game Recap: EDM 4, SJS 5, February 28, 2026

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Game Recap

EDM4

FinalSat, Feb 28, 2026Every game that night

SJS5

SJS beat EDM 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.96 expected goals to 2.68. SJS outshot EDM 33 to 24. E. Bouchard led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Celebrini had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.6. Y. Askarov stopped 20 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	1	1	2	4
SJS	3	0	2	5

1st 8:34SJSM. Celebrini0.07 xG
1st 11:07SJSM. MisaPP0.46 xG
1st 14:51EDML. DraisaitlPP0.17 xG
1st 17:05SJSB. Goodrow0.22 xG
2nd 15:49EDME. Bouchard0.15 xG
3rd 2:54EDMT. Frederic0.17 xG
3rd 5:30SJSA. Wennberg0.20 xG
3rd 7:13EDMJ. Walman0.09 xG
3rd 9:27SJSS. Mukhamadullin0.04 xG

Team Stats

EDMSJS

24Shots on goal33

2.68Expected goals3.96

53Shot attempts58

155v5 shots on goal27

1/3Power play1/2

24Hits22

10Blocked shots15

4Penalty minutes6

18Giveaways20

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.68 xGSJS 3.96 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM24 on goal, 4 scored

SJS33 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	3	3	3	4	0	-2	0	21:34	4:23
L. Draisaitl	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	21:47	4:26
M. Savoie	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	13:34	0:47
T. Frederic	C	1	0	1	2	5	1	+1	0	12:38	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	20:57	4:25
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	17:37	4:00
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	14:44	0:24
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	14:10	0:22
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	13:32	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:32	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:20	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	9:09	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	1	2	3	3	0	1	0	0	23:24	4:40
J. Walman	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	20:51	0:07
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	18:45	1:12
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	21:37	0:21
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	16:21	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	33	28	5	.848	58:15	Loss
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Misa	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	12:16	1:13
M. Celebrini	C	1	0	1	7	1	1	0	0	21:17	2:15
W. Smith	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	18:43	1:58
A. Wennberg	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	18:30	2:17
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:31	1:11
P. Kurashev	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	13:32	1:30
B. Goodrow	C	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	11:49	0:00
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	11:07	1:17
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	10:19	0:00
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	5	2	0	+1	2	19:00	2:11
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	16:59	0:00
P. Regenda	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:48	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+2	0	21:11	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	19:15	2:19
S. Mukhamadullin	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	+2	0	18:27	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	22:17	1:09
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	2	20:01	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	15:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	24	20	4	.833	59:54	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman15:59C. McDavid15:05R. Nugent-Hopkins11:31

Line 2J. Roslovic14:14M. Savoie10:44T. Frederic12:38

Line 3C. Lazar9:03A. Mangiapane10:11K. Kapanen13:26

Line 4V. Podkolzin13:48L. Draisaitl16:54

Pair 1D. Nurse19:32J. Walman19:09

Pair 2M. Ekholm15:57E. Bouchard16:48

Pair 3T. Emberson15:00S. Stastney15:44

SJS

Line 1W. Smith16:02M. Celebrini18:02K. Sherwood16:10

Line 2A. Wennberg13:05C. Graf13:52P. Kurashev11:40

Line 3W. Eklund12:47M. Misa10:49T. Toffoli9:44

Line 4B. Goodrow10:51P. Regenda10:48Z. Ostapchuk9:30

Pair 1M. Ferraro17:19S. Mukhamadullin17:18

Pair 2D. Orlov19:31J. Klingberg16:31

Pair 3V. Desharnais17:23S. Dickinson14:08

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDarnell Nurse SJS Faces EDM, his team until Apr 20261 SOG
Old teamJake Walman EDM Faces SJS, his team until Mar 20251 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.9, SJS 3.0	EDM 4, SJS 5
Total goals	7.0	9
Shots on goal	EDM 31.9, SJS 26.4	EDM 24, SJS 33
Win chance	EDM 63%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.8	3	1.78	3	42%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	3.6	7	1.29	1	35%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	3.2	1	0.98	0	42%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	5	1.50	1	44%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	3	1.07	3	21%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.5	2	0.72	1	29%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	2.5	5	0.60	0	26%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.3	3	0.87	1	28%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.1	2	0.95	0	27%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.1	1	0.64	1	18%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.1	1	0.40	0	10%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	2.0	1	0.55	0	22%	0
EDM J. Walman	2.0	1	0.48	1	13%	1
EDM K. Kapanen	1.8	0	0.46	0	16%	0
SJS P. Regenda	1.8	1	0.38	0	20%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.7	0	0.49	1	11%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.6	0	0.44	0	17%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.5	3	0.39	1	15%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.5	1	0.52	1	13%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.4	2	0.51	0	20%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.4	1	0.66	1	18%	1
SJS P. Kurashev	1.3	0	0.45	1	15%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.2	1	0.32	0	16%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.2	3	0.45	2	13%	1
EDM T. Frederic	1.1	2	0.22	1	13%	1
SJS D. Orlov	1.0	3	0.40	0	8%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	0	0.23	1	5%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	0.9	0	0.29	0	14%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	0.9	1	0.23	0	4%	0
EDM S. Stastney	0.8	1	0.18	0	4%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	1	0.16	1	8%	1
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.7	1	0.22	1	6%	1
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	0	0.23	0	4%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.7	0	0.18	0	8%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	1	0.12	1	7%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.6	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.