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Game Recap
EDM5
FinalWed, Apr 8, 2026Every game that night
SJS2

EDM beat SJS 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.90 expected goals to 1.77. EDM outshot SJS 26 to 14. C. McDavid scored three for EDM. C. McDavid had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. C. Ingram stopped 8 of 10.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
EDM2305
SJS1102
  1. 1st 4:27SJSM. CelebriniPP0.05 xG
  2. 1st 6:18EDMC. McDavidPP0.11 xG
  3. 1st 18:38EDMV. PodkolzinPP0.28 xG
  4. 2nd 3:33EDMJ. RoslovicPP0.16 xG
  5. 2nd 4:37SJSK. Sherwood0.10 xG
  6. 2nd 5:53EDMC. McDavid0.20 xG
  7. 2nd 14:13EDMC. McDavid0.19 xG

Team Stats

EDMSJS
26Shots on goal14
2.90Expected goals1.77
57Shot attempts41
205v5 shots on goal11
3/3Power play1/3
33Hits19
12Blocked shots15
2Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways19
2Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.90 xGSJS 1.77 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdSJS goal, 4:27EDM goal, 6:18EDM goal, 18:38EDM goal, 3:33SJS goal, 4:37EDM goal, 5:53EDM goal, 14:13

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM25 on goal, 5 scored
SJS14 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC325801+2021:103:25
V. PodkolzinRW112322+1016:483:25
J. RoslovicC112230+1012:483:25
R. Nugent-HopkinsC0112100019:313:25
K. KapanenRW0001100016:450:00
M. SavoieC000300+1216:350:00
T. FredericC000170-1015:100:00
A. HenriqueC0001120013:230:00
C. DachC000070-1012:270:00
J. DickinsonC0000010012:060:00
J. SamanskiC000210-1011:190:00
M. JonesLW000030+1010:220:00
E. BouchardD022000+1022:323:25
M. EkholmD011002+1017:390:00
D. NurseD0001310021:170:00
C. MurphyD000122+1020:080:00
J. WalmanD0000010018:140:00
T. EmbersonD000120-1016:570:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Ingram1082.80040:00Win
T. Jarry4401.00020:00

SJS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. CelebriniC1014110221:484:14
A. WennbergC011002+1020:524:15
W. SmithC011111-1018:404:04
K. SherwoodLW101240+1018:010:45
W. EklundLW011210+1017:200:34
C. GrafRW0000300016:590:00
T. ToffoliC000112-1013:244:06
M. MisaC000102-2211:340:43
Z. OstapchukC0000210011:240:00
B. GoodrowC0000400010:470:00
A. GaudetteRW0000010010:270:00
I. ChernyshovLW000000-2010:250:35
D. OrlovD0110100021:384:19
M. FerraroD0001010023:410:08
N. LeddyD000102-1019:000:00
V. DesharnaisD0001110218:580:00
J. KlingbergD000001+1017:490:22
S. DickinsonD000000-2013:540:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Nedeljkovic26215.80859:54Loss
Y. Askarov000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1V. Podkolzin13:23M. Savoie14:15C. McDavid17:07
Line 2T. Frederic15:10C. Dach12:27J. Samanski11:19
Line 3K. Kapanen14:48R. Nugent-Hopkins15:29J. Dickinson10:12
Line 4A. Henrique10:58M. Jones10:16J. Roslovic9:23
Pair 1J. Walman18:14T. Emberson16:57
Pair 2C. Murphy17:08D. Nurse18:18
Pair 3M. Ekholm15:42E. Bouchard17:14

SJS

Line 1K. Sherwood17:11W. Eklund16:46A. Wennberg13:46
Line 2M. Celebrini17:28W. Smith14:30C. Graf14:07
Line 3A. Gaudette10:27Z. Ostapchuk10:57B. Goodrow10:12
Line 4T. Toffoli9:12I. Chernyshov9:50M. Misa10:45
Pair 1M. Ferraro20:08J. Klingberg17:27
Pair 2N. Leddy17:34S. Dickinson13:49
Pair 3D. Orlov17:19V. Desharnais16:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamDarnell Nurse SJS Faces EDM, his team until Apr 20261 SOG
  • Old teamJake Walman EDM Faces SJS, his team until Mar 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreEDM 3.5, SJS 3.3EDM 5, SJS 2
Total goals6.87
Shots on goalEDM 28.9, SJS 27.1EDM 26, SJS 14
Win chanceEDM 54%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
SJS M. Celebrini3.541.32138%1
EDM C. McDavid3.581.61540%3
EDM E. Bouchard2.601.06220%0
SJS W. Smith2.410.89129%0
EDM M. Savoie2.330.66024%0
SJS T. Toffoli2.110.64026%0
SJS K. Sherwood2.020.47122%1
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins2.020.81125%0
EDM D. Nurse2.010.37010%0
EDM J. Roslovic1.920.57222%1
SJS W. Eklund1.820.59117%0
EDM V. Podkolzin1.730.46218%1
EDM K. Kapanen1.710.43016%0
SJS C. Graf1.600.55021%0
EDM J. Walman1.600.37011%0
SJS I. Chernyshov1.500.53017%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.500.49110%0
SJS D. Orlov1.200.52110%0
SJS A. Wennberg1.200.64118%0
EDM A. Henrique1.210.31015%0
SJS J. Klingberg1.200.42010%0
SJS M. Misa1.210.44017%0
EDM J. Dickinson1.100.31014%0
SJS A. Gaudette1.100.29016%0
SJS S. Dickinson1.100.2704%0
EDM T. Frederic1.110.22012%0
EDM M. Jones1.000.2109%0
EDM C. Murphy1.010.2707%0
SJS M. Ferraro1.010.2706%0
SJS B. Goodrow0.800.1709%0
EDM C. Dach0.700.1707%0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk0.700.1207%0
SJS V. Desharnais0.710.1602%0
SJS N. Leddy0.610.2704%0
EDM T. Emberson0.610.1703%0
EDM J. Samanski0.420.20010%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.