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Game Recap
EDM3
FinalSat, Oct 10, 2026Every game that night
SJS1

EDM beat SJS 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.92 expected goals to 1.52. D. Nurse had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. T. Jarry stopped 19 of 20.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
EDM1023
SJS0011
  1. 1st 12:37EDMM. Ekholm0.03 xG
  2. 3rd 3:13EDMV. Podkolzin0.10 xG
  3. 3rd 5:40EDMA. Formenton0.18 xG
  4. 3rd 11:19SJSM. Celebrini0.04 xG

Team Stats

EDMSJS
20Shots on goal20
2.92Expected goals1.52
49Shot attempts43
135v5 shots on goal17
0/2Power play0/1
24Hits34
9Blocked shots11
2Penalty minutes4
18Giveaways15
4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.92 xGSJS 1.52 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdEDM goal, 12:37EDM goal, 3:13EDM goal, 5:40SJS goal, 11:19

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM20 on goal, 3 scored
SJS20 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC011420+1024:042:53
V. PodkolzinRW101130+1220:482:53
M. JosephRW0111100014:420:02
A. FormentonLW1012430014:020:00
I. HowardLW011000+108:591:06
J. SamanskiC011001+106:190:00
L. DraisaitlC000310+1021:492:52
K. KapanenRW0001100017:302:30
O. MichaelsRW0001200014:150:04
F. HallanderC0001200014:111:03
J. DickinsonC0000210013:430:00
T. FredericC000310+109:531:06
C. MurphyD0110210024:230:03
E. BouchardD011100+2024:072:52
M. EkholmD101200+1022:461:29
R. SheaD0000010024:011:07
S. MukhamadullinD000030+1011:180:00
T. EmbersonD0000020011:100:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
T. Jarry20191.95060:00Win
D. Levi000–0:00

SJS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. CelebriniC1012210221:591:47
M. MisaC011010-1012:440:13
A. WennbergC0001000020:321:47
W. SmithC000101-1020:111:47
I. StenbergLW0002110018:091:47
M. MarchmentLW000110-1017:441:35
K. SherwoodLW0000610216:150:13
C. GrafRW000121-1014:130:00
T. ToffoliC000110-2011:250:13
I. ChernyshovLW0001110011:030:13
B. GoodrowC0002500010:150:00
Z. OstapchukC000080008:010:00
D. NurseD000500-1021:560:00
J. TroubaD000114-2020:410:13
L. CagnoniD000000+1020:211:47
M. KesselringD000110-2019:030:00
D. OrlovD000131+1018:200:13
S. DickinsonD000010-1016:400:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
Y. Askarov20173.85056:28Loss
A. Nedeljkovic000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl17:34C. McDavid19:17V. Podkolzin17:19
Line 2M. Joseph13:40O. Michaels14:02A. Formenton12:27
Line 3K. Kapanen13:13F. Hallander12:57J. Dickinson13:08
Line 4T. Frederic8:47I. Howard7:53J. Samanski6:19
Pair 1C. Murphy21:41R. Shea21:18
Pair 2M. Ekholm19:07E. Bouchard20:10
Pair 3T. Emberson11:10S. Mukhamadullin11:18

SJS

Line 1W. Smith17:02M. Celebrini18:47M. Marchment14:51
Line 2A. Wennberg15:56I. Stenberg15:02K. Sherwood14:55
Line 3C. Graf12:04M. Misa11:55T. Toffoli10:48
Line 4B. Goodrow8:00I. Chernyshov10:26Z. Ostapchuk6:56
Pair 1D. Nurse18:46M. Kesselring17:56
Pair 2D. Orlov17:36L. Cagnoni17:09
Pair 3J. Trouba17:15S. Dickinson15:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

3 of 14 overs hit (21%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
EDM C. McDavid3.5-114-1114Over
EDM E. Bouchard2.5-130+1101Under
EDM L. Draisaitl2.5-160+1303Over
EDM V. Podkolzin2.5+105-1301Under
SJS W. Smith2.5+105-1351Under
SJS C. Graf1.5+115-1501Under
SJS D. Nurse1.5+110-1255Over
SJS I. Chernyshov1.5-118+1101Under
SJS J. Trouba1.5+100-1301Under
EDM K. Kapanen1.5-140+1301Under
SJS K. Sherwood1.5-190+1400Under
SJS L. Cagnoni1.5+115-1450Under
SJS M. Marchment1.5-150+1201Under
SJS T. Toffoli1.5-150+1301Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamDarnell Nurse SJS Faces EDM, his team until Apr 20265 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreEDM 3.7, SJS 3.1EDM 3, SJS 1
Total goals6.84
Shots on goalEDM 29.1, SJS 25.9EDM 20, SJS 20
Win chanceEDM 59%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid3.741.82143%0
SJS M. Celebrini3.421.31136%1
EDM L. Draisaitl3.031.57045%0
EDM E. Bouchard2.611.24124%0
EDM V. Podkolzin2.310.68125%1
SJS K. Sherwood2.200.55025%0
SJS W. Smith2.210.83027%0
SJS T. Toffoli2.110.64026%0
EDM A. Formenton2.020.46121%1
EDM K. Kapanen2.010.58021%0
SJS M. Marchment2.010.75027%0
SJS D. Nurse1.850.3409%0
SJS J. Trouba1.810.3507%0
EDM F. Hallander1.610.46015%0
SJS L. Cagnoni1.400.4209%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.420.52111%1
SJS M. Kesselring1.410.2405%0
SJS M. Misa1.400.51118%0
SJS C. Graf1.310.47018%0
SJS I. Chernyshov1.310.59021%0
EDM I. Howard1.300.25110%0
SJS A. Wennberg1.310.65018%0
EDM M. Joseph1.110.35112%0
EDM C. Murphy1.100.2818%0
EDM T. Frederic1.030.22012%0
SJS D. Orlov1.010.3305%0
EDM J. Dickinson1.000.28013%0
EDM R. Shea1.000.4809%0
SJS S. Dickinson0.900.2403%0
EDM S. Mukhamadullin0.900.2407%0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk0.900.1208%0
SJS B. Goodrow0.820.1809%0
EDM T. Emberson0.500.1603%0
EDM J. Samanski0.400.21110%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.