Game Recap: EDM 3, STL 2 (OT), February 4, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM3

Final/OTTue, Feb 4, 2025Every game that night

STL2

EDM beat STL 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.82 expected goals to 3.26. EDM outshot STL 39 to 22. C. McDavid led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). L. Draisaitl had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. S. Skinner stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
EDM	0	1	1	1	3
STL	0	0	2	0	2

2nd 5:50EDMC. McDavidPP0.06 xG
3rd 5:12STLJ. KyrouPP0.80 xG
3rd 8:58STLC. Parayko0.16 xG
3rd 17:46EDML. Draisaitl0.11 xG
OT 2:33EDMC. Brown0.19 xG

Team Stats

EDMSTL

39Shots on goal22

3.82Expected goals3.26

72Shot attempts48

305v5 shots on goal17

1/3Power play1/1

13Hits28

13Blocked shots14

2Penalty minutes6

18Giveaways15

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.82 xGSTL 3.26 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM38 on goal, 3 scored

STL22 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	2	3	1	0	0	+1	0	24:43	4:11
L. Draisaitl	C	1	1	2	8	1	0	0	0	25:16	4:15
C. Brown	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	12:05	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	5	0	2	+1	0	20:23	4:01
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:16	3:58
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	16:48	1:22
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	16:45	1:07
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:49	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:42	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:04	1:03
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:36	0:00
N. Philp	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:35	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	2	2	6	1	1	+2	0	25:30	4:40
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	2	23:38	0:58
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	4	4	2	0	0	22:15	1:10
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:50	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:55	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	22	20	2	.909	61:34	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	21:00	1:01
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	19:42	0:58
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	3	1	1	-2	0	18:54	0:52
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	18:25	0:54
B. Schenn	C	0	1	1	0	9	0	-1	0	17:30	0:51
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:34	0:54
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:04	0:58
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:53	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	12:11	0:00
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	11:06	1:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	10:30	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	9:30	0:00
C. Parayko	D	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	0	25:01	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	22:29	1:08
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	20:32	0:44
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	20:02	0:00
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:28	0:00
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	39	36	3	.923	62:33	OT loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDylan Holloway STL Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20241 A, 3 SOG
Old teamKasperi Kapanen EDM Faces STL, his team until Nov 20241 SOG
Old teamPhilip Broberg STL Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20243 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.2, STL 2.7	EDM 3, STL 2
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	EDM 30.9, STL 26.5	EDM 39, STL 22
Win chance	EDM 57%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.4	1	1.60	3	40%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.3	8	1.39	2	44%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	3.1	5	0.77	0	36%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.9	6	0.83	2	16%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.7	1	0.76	1	31%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.3	4	0.40	0	10%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.3	4	0.53	0	19%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.2	3	0.57	1	22%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.1	2	0.45	1	11%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.1	1	0.73	1	26%	0
STL R. Thomas	2.0	3	0.83	1	23%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	1	0.74	0	23%	0
EDM J. Skinner	1.9	1	0.43	0	20%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.8	0	0.56	1	20%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.7	3	0.36	1	10%	1
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	2	0.40	0	21%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.5	0	0.30	0	6%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.5	1	0.39	0	8%	0
EDM J. Klingberg	1.5	0	0.43	0	8%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.3	0	0.27	0	11%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.3	0	0.32	0	13%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.3	2	0.31	1	10%	1
EDM C. Perry	1.3	4	0.35	0	17%	0
STL A. Texier	1.3	3	0.33	0	14%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	0	0.42	0	8%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	0	0.21	0	11%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.1	3	0.27	0	6%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.1	1	0.27	0	11%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.0	0	0.24	0	10%	0
EDM N. Philp	1.0	0	0.19	0	7%	0
STL N. Leddy	0.9	1	0.29	0	4%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	0	0.30	0	11%	0
STL N. Walker	0.9	1	0.23	0	12%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	0	0.26	0	10%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	0	0.20	0	2%	0
STL R. Suter	0.7	0	0.18	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.