Game Recap: EDM 2, STL 3, November 3, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

EDM2

FinalMon, Nov 3, 2025Every game that night

STL3

STL beat EDM 3-2, with the chances close: 2.46 expected goals to 2.70. R. Thomas led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Binnington stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	1	1	0	2
STL	0	2	1	3

1st 18:38EDMJ. RoslovicPP0.21 xG
2nd 2:27EDMA. Mangiapane0.16 xG
2nd 16:08STLD. DvorskyPP0.11 xG
2nd 18:38STLR. Thomas0.21 xG
3rd 18:37STLP. Suter0.37 xG

Team Stats

EDMSTL

26Shots on goal22

2.70Expected goals2.46

59Shot attempts47

245v5 shots on goal20

1/1Power play1/2

17Hits13

12Blocked shots21

4Penalty minutes2

16Giveaways18

5Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.70 xGSTL 2.46 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM25 on goal, 2 scored

STL22 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	2	21:30	0:08
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	2	2	0	0	1	+1	0	19:17	0:08
J. Roslovic	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-2	0	17:52	0:08
A. Mangiapane	LW	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	16:22	0:00
L. Draisaitl	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	19:26	0:08
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	16:11	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:50	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	15:45	0:00
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:27	0:00
N. Philp	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:49	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	7:57	0:00
I. Howard	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	7:00	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	21:22	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	3	4	2	+1	0	20:54	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	20:42	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	19:31	0:08
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	19:19	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	18:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	22	19	3	.864	58:18	Loss
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	19:56	1:30
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	19:15	1:26
B. Schenn	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	16:22	0:44
P. Suter	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:09	0:47
D. Dvorsky	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:33	1:03
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	19:07	1:27
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	14:34	0:47
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	14:04	0:48
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	12:33	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	12:28	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	11:27	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	11:08	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	1	1	1	2	4	0	0	24:18	1:15
P. Broberg	D	0	1	1	3	1	2	+1	0	21:38	0:24
C. Parayko	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	0	0	21:24	0:24
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	22:03	0:35
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:58	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	26	24	2	.923	60:00	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1R. Nugent-Hopkins16:39C. McDavid19:58A. Mangiapane15:34

Line 2L. Draisaitl17:54J. Roslovic16:44V. Podkolzin16:11

Line 3A. Henrique14:06T. Frederic15:03M. Savoie11:42

Line 4N. Philp8:49C. Lazar7:57I. Howard7:00

Pair 1D. Nurse20:14J. Walman17:55

Pair 2B. Kulak19:53T. Emberson17:25

Pair 3M. Ekholm18:58E. Bouchard17:38

STL

Line 1R. Thomas18:04J. Snuggerud17:49P. Buchnevich17:17

Line 2B. Schenn14:54P. Suter14:36J. Kyrou13:16

Line 3D. Holloway13:47D. Dvorsky13:30M. Joseph12:33

Line 4N. Bjugstad11:01A. Toropchenko10:45O. Sundqvist10:10

Pair 1J. Faulk22:21C. Fowler21:00

Pair 2C. Parayko20:34P. Broberg20:34

Pair 3T. Tucker13:13M. Kessel14:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDylan Holloway STL Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20242 SOG
Old teamPhilip Broberg STL Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20241 A, 3 SOG
HometownTrent Frederic EDM Plays in his hometown2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.1, STL 3.1	EDM 2, STL 3
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	EDM 27.6, STL 26.1	EDM 26, STL 22
Win chance	STL 50%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.2	0	1.59	2	38%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	0	1.37	0	44%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.8	2	0.81	0	33%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.6	3	0.82	0	16%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.5	2	0.79	0	26%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	2.0	2	0.56	1	21%	1
STL P. Buchnevich	2.0	0	0.81	0	27%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	0	0.79	2	24%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.9	3	0.35	0	8%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.9	0	0.50	1	19%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.8	1	0.41	0	10%	0
STL P. Suter	1.7	2	0.54	1	22%	1
STL R. Thomas	1.6	4	0.96	2	22%	1
STL B. Schenn	1.6	0	0.63	1	22%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.6	3	0.38	0	8%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.6	1	0.38	1	10%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.6	1	0.43	1	9%	0
STL N. Bjugstad	1.5	2	0.31	0	14%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.4	3	0.36	0	13%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	1	0.38	0	18%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.3	1	0.49	0	9%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.3	3	0.34	1	9%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.3	3	0.40	1	19%	1
STL M. Joseph	1.2	1	0.30	0	10%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.1	1	0.21	0	4%	0
EDM I. Howard	1.1	0	0.25	0	12%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	0	0.25	0	11%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.1	2	0.18	0	10%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.1	2	0.26	0	14%	0
EDM N. Philp	1.0	1	0.24	0	10%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.0	1	0.38	0	12%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	0	0.17	0	3%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.7	1	0.19	0	8%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.6	0	0.15	0	5%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.5	1	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.