Game Recap: EDM 3, VAN 4 (OT), October 26, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM3

Final/OTSun, Oct 26, 2025Every game that night

VAN4

VAN beat EDM 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.60 expected goals to 2.80. B. Boeser led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). K. Sherwood had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. T. Demko stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
EDM	0	1	2	0	3
VAN	1	2	0	1	4

1st 15:42VANB. Boeser0.06 xG
2nd 2:22VANE. PetterssonPP0.11 xG
2nd 16:32EDML. Draisaitl0.19 xG
2nd 19:19VANK. Sherwood0.19 xG
3rd 1:21EDMJ. Roslovic0.08 xG
3rd 14:57EDML. DraisaitlPP0.16 xG
OT 1:43VANK. Sherwood0.23 xG

Team Stats

EDMVAN

29Shots on goal27

2.80Expected goals2.60

62Shot attempts54

275v5 shots on goal20

1/2Power play1/2

19Hits14

13Blocked shots18

4Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways17

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 2.80 xGVAN 2.60 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM29 on goal, 3 scored

VAN27 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	2	0	2	3	1	0	+1	0	20:55	2:05
J. Roslovic	C	1	1	2	4	0	1	+2	0	15:43	0:00
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	23:03	2:06
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-2	0	20:51	1:45
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+2	2	15:11	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	18:53	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:13	0:49
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	14:04	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	13:07	0:00
D. Tomasek	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	8:19	1:38
I. Howard	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	8:18	0:22
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	8:12	0:42
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	24:59	1:52
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	0	23:32	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	19:37	0:21
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:02	0:35
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:07	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	15:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	27	23	4	.852	61:43	OT loss
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Boeser	RW	1	2	3	3	0	0	+2	0	20:40	2:47
C. Garland	RW	0	2	2	2	0	1	+1	2	22:05	2:47
K. Sherwood	LW	2	0	2	5	4	1	+1	0	16:40	0:39
E. Pettersson	C	1	0	1	2	1	4	0	0	20:22	2:47
E. Kane	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	17:34	0:39
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	17:49	1:51
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	16:33	0:39
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	15:55	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	15:39	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:52	1:17
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	7:14	0:00
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:27	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	28:19	2:47
M. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	27:21	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	-1	0	20:22	0:18
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	22:11	0:00
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:21	0:00
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	8:18	0:39

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	29	26	3	.897	61:43	Win
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1A. Mangiapane16:23C. McDavid18:32R. Nugent-Hopkins16:47

Line 2V. Podkolzin15:11J. Roslovic15:43L. Draisaitl16:34

Line 3A. Henrique13:59T. Frederic14:04C. Lazar12:44

Line 4I. Howard7:56M. Savoie7:30D. Tomasek6:41

Pair 1E. Bouchard21:31D. Nurse21:54

Pair 2M. Ekholm17:32J. Walman17:29

Pair 3B. Kulak15:27T. Emberson14:38

VAN

Line 1E. Kane16:55B. Boeser17:03L. Reichel15:54

Line 2E. Pettersson15:58C. Garland17:56J. DeBrusk14:34

Line 3A. Räty14:44D. O'Connor15:21K. Sherwood13:34

Line 4A. Bains6:27M. Sasson7:14L. Karlsson6:35

Pair 1M. Pettersson26:32F. Hronek23:22

Pair 2T. Myers20:30E. Pettersson19:18

Pair 3P. Joseph11:21V. Mancini7:17

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamVasily Podkolzin EDM Faces VAN, his team until May 20241 A, 3 SOG
HometownRyan Nugent-Hopkins EDM Plays near home (born in Burnaby)1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.2, VAN 2.9	EDM 3, VAN 4
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	EDM 28.5, VAN 24.7	EDM 29, VAN 27
Win chance	EDM 54%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.1	3	1.57	1	36%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	3	1.35	2	42%	2
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	0	0.83	1	19%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.5	2	0.78	2	26%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.5	2	0.56	1	27%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.3	4	0.63	0	28%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	3	0.80	3	32%	1
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	2	0.75	1	22%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.9	5	0.56	2	23%	2
VAN E. Pettersson	1.9	2	0.87	1	29%	1
EDM D. Nurse	1.8	4	0.36	0	9%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.8	0	0.40	0	12%	0
EDM D. Tomasek	1.8	1	0.43	0	15%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	1.7	4	0.45	2	17%	1
EDM M. Ekholm	1.7	1	0.41	0	10%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.3	0	0.29	0	13%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.3	0	0.20	0	9%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.2	2	0.35	0	17%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.2	2	0.38	0	17%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.2	3	0.32	1	11%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.2	0	0.44	1	7%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.1	2	0.33	0	16%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.1	3	0.24	0	6%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.1	0	0.27	0	5%	0
EDM I. Howard	1.1	1	0.20	0	11%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.1	0	0.25	0	12%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.0	0	0.23	0	10%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.0	1	0.28	0	13%	0
VAN L. Reichel	1.0	2	0.29	0	11%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	0	0.18	0	3%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.8	0	0.27	1	4%	0
VAN P. Joseph	0.7	2	0.12	0	3%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.7	0	0.19	0	8%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.6	0	0.14	0	7%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.6	1	0.09	1	3%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.6	1	0.15	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.