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Game Recap
EDM9
FinalThu, Oct 1, 2026Every game that night
VAN7

EDM beat VAN 9-7, and the chances backed it up: 3.76 expected goals to 2.50. EDM outshot VAN 31 to 22. C. McDavid led the way with 5 points (1 G, 4 A). M. Rossi had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. D. Levi stopped 15 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
EDM4419
VAN0347
  1. 1st 9:26EDMV. PodkolzinPP0.17 xG
  2. 1st 14:26EDMO. Michaels0.27 xG
  3. 1st 14:42EDME. Bouchard0.01 xG
  4. 1st 19:32EDMR. Shea0.21 xG
  5. 2nd 0:27EDML. Draisaitl0.07 xG
  6. 2nd 4:31VANP. Cotter0.18 xG
  7. 2nd 5:04EDMT. Frederic0.35 xG
  8. 2nd 5:47VANB. Boeser0.01 xG
  9. 2nd 7:49EDMC. McDavidSH0.11 xG
  10. 2nd 8:23EDMK. KapanenSH0.20 xG
  11. 2nd 19:59VANA. Bains0.04 xG
  12. 3rd 1:53VANM. Rossi0.47 xG
  13. 3rd 4:43VANM. Rossi0.15 xG
  14. 3rd 7:37VANE. PetterssonPP0.10 xG
  15. 3rd 9:26EDML. DraisaitlPP0.10 xG
  16. 3rd 18:31VANJ. Oleksiak0.10 xG

Team Stats

EDMVAN
31Shots on goal22
3.76Expected goals2.50
53Shot attempts48
215v5 shots on goal16
2/5Power play1/3
20Hits28
17Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes10
18Giveaways27
3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.76 xGVAN 2.50 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdEDM goal, 9:26EDM goal, 14:26EDM goal, 14:42EDM goal, 19:32EDM goal, 0:27VAN goal, 4:31EDM goal, 5:04VAN goal, 5:47EDM goal, 7:49EDM goal, 8:23VAN goal, 19:59VAN goal, 1:53VAN goal, 4:43VAN goal, 7:37EDM goal, 9:26VAN goal, 18:31

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM28 on goal, 9 scored
VAN20 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC145302+4022:034:39
L. DraisaitlC213500+3020:194:41
K. KapanenRW112111-2018:484:05
V. PodkolzinRW112420+3018:044:02
M. JosephRW0112520015:070:07
O. MichaelsRW101120-1013:230:07
I. HowardLW0113100010:582:25
T. FredericC1012210210:552:39
A. FormentonLW0000110016:150:00
C. DachC000201-3012:461:15
M. JonesLW000120-3211:410:46
J. SamanskiC000000008:410:00
E. BouchardD123410+3024:214:36
R. SheaD101110+3023:052:07
C. MurphyD0001160024:470:00
M. EkholmD000010+3020:420:19
J. WalmanD000101-3213:022:12
S. MukhamadullinD000002-4010:010:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Levi22157.68259:51Win
T. Jarry000–0:00

VAN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
E. PetterssonC1232800017:363:24
M. RossiC2134200215:163:17
B. BoeserRW112220+1018:383:19
P. CotterLW112150+1016:120:00
A. BainsLW112100+1011:290:00
L. OhgrenLW011102+1018:331:47
J. LekkerimäkiRW011100+1012:041:47
J. DeBruskLW000410-1215:373:16
L. KarlssonC000101-3013:471:45
M. SassonC000000-2013:360:11
D. O'ConnorLW000021-2013:230:06
B. GallagherRW000031-1211:080:00
F. HronekD022103-2023:023:36
J. OleksiakD112122+1221:190:00
T. WillanderD011001-1021:111:52
L. SchennD011030+2214:020:00
Z. BuiumD000301-3020:581:35
E. PetterssonD000000+2016:170:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Lankinen20138.65028:23Loss
L. Meriläinen11101.90930:41

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl14:41V. Podkolzin13:56C. McDavid14:19
Line 2A. Formenton12:51M. Joseph12:48O. Michaels12:09
Line 3K. Kapanen12:41M. Jones10:55C. Dach10:49
Line 4J. Samanski8:41I. Howard8:24T. Frederic8:16
Pair 1C. Murphy21:22R. Shea17:57
Pair 2M. Ekholm17:06E. Bouchard17:48
Pair 3J. Walman9:56S. Mukhamadullin10:01

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser14:18L. Ohgren14:23P. Cotter14:10
Line 2D. O'Connor11:10M. Sasson10:52B. Gallagher10:09
Line 3J. DeBrusk11:25E. Pettersson10:42L. Karlsson11:46
Line 4A. Bains10:34J. Lekkerimäki10:17M. Rossi10:54
Pair 1J. Oleksiak17:52T. Willander17:51
Pair 2Z. Buium18:27F. Hronek14:27
Pair 3L. Schenn12:40E. Pettersson12:43

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 18 overs hit (50%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
EDM C. McDavid3.5-113-1153Under
VAN B. Boeser2.5+115-1352Under
EDM E. Bouchard2.5-110-1044Over
VAN J. DeBrusk2.5-125+1084Over
EDM L. Draisaitl2.5-160+1405Over
EDM V. Podkolzin2.5+108-1204Over
EDM C. Dach1.5+110-1452Over
VAN D. O'Connor1.5-105-1200Under
VAN E. Pettersson1.5-178+1602Over
VAN F. Hronek1.5-165+1351Under
EDM I. Howard1.5-145+1103Over
VAN J. Lekkerimäki1.5+120-1501Under
EDM J. Walman1.5-130+1051Under
EDM K. Kapanen1.5-135+1101Under
VAN L. Karlsson1.5+115-1451Under
EDM M. Ekholm1.5-140+1200Under
VAN M. Rossi1.5-110-1204Over
VAN Z. Buium1.5+135-1703Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • HometownTristan Jarry EDM Plays near home (born in Surrey)0 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreEDM 3.9, VAN 3.1EDM 9, VAN 7
Total goals7.016
Shots on goalEDM 30.8, VAN 25.7EDM 31, VAN 22
Win chanceEDM 61%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid3.531.71538%1
EDM L. Draisaitl2.851.52342%2
VAN J. DeBrusk2.540.58026%0
EDM E. Bouchard2.541.23322%1
VAN B. Boeser2.220.73229%1
EDM A. Formenton2.100.47020%0
EDM V. Podkolzin2.040.55219%1
EDM K. Kapanen1.910.51218%1
VAN D. O'Connor1.900.39017%0
VAN E. Pettersson1.820.77326%1
VAN F. Hronek1.710.6229%0
VAN L. Karlsson1.610.49018%0
VAN L. Ohgren1.610.40116%0
EDM J. Walman1.510.40011%0
VAN M. Rossi1.440.61321%2
EDM M. Ekholm1.400.52010%0
EDM I. Howard1.330.23110%0
VAN B. Gallagher1.100.26011%0
VAN M. Sasson1.100.36018%0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki1.110.29114%0
EDM C. Murphy1.110.2908%0
EDM T. Frederic1.020.20111%1
VAN Z. Buium1.030.3507%0
EDM M. Jones1.010.2108%0
EDM S. Mukhamadullin1.000.2908%0
VAN J. Oleksiak0.910.2225%1
VAN T. Willander0.900.3217%0
EDM C. Dach0.920.2308%0
VAN P. Cotter0.810.23213%1
EDM R. Shea0.810.4017%1
EDM M. Joseph0.720.2317%0
VAN E. Pettersson0.700.1504%0
VAN A. Bains0.710.1527%1
VAN L. Schenn0.600.1112%0
EDM J. Samanski0.500.23010%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.