Game Recap: EDM 4, WPG 1, April 13, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM4

FinalSun, Apr 13, 2025Every game that night

WPG1

EDM beat WPG 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.30 expected goals to 2.02. EDM outshot WPG 39 to 18. C. Perry led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Skinner stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	0	2	2	4
WPG	0	1	0	1

2nd 0:59EDMC. Brown0.22 xG
2nd 6:16WPGA. IafalloPP0.60 xG
2nd 12:39EDMA. Henrique0.55 xG
3rd 12:25EDMC. Perry0.12 xG
3rd 18:40EDMV. ArvidssonEN0.61 xG

Team Stats

EDMWPG

39Shots on goal18

4.30Expected goals2.02

72Shot attempts40

355v5 shots on goal12

0/1Power play1/2

19Hits19

10Blocked shots17

4Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways24

11Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 4.30 xGWPG 2.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM37 on goal, 4 scored

WPG17 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	2	2	4	0	0	+3	0	19:56	2:00
C. Perry	RW	1	1	2	2	3	2	+2	0	14:22	2:00
C. Brown	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	18:12	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+2	0	16:54	2:00
A. Henrique	C	1	0	1	3	2	2	+2	0	15:48	2:00
D. Ryan	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	10:15	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	2	16:36	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:34	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:23	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	14:22	0:00
N. Philp	C	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	11:41	0:00
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:03	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	24:15	2:00
B. Kulak	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	23:13	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	24:19	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+2	0	16:36	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:22	0:00
C. Dineen	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	14:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	18	17	1	.944	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-4	2	20:40	2:14
A. Iafallo	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	-2	0	18:57	1:43
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	0	18:58	2:11
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	18:57	2:14
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:22	0:49
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	15:50	0:46
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:10	0:36
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:48	1:05
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	12:44	0:00
D. Gustafsson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:48	0:00
J. Anderson-Dolan	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	10:10	0:10
D. Toninato	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	9:06	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	20:39	1:57
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	23:20	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	21:40	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	19:31	1:03
V. Heinola	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:52	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-2	0	14:23	0:12

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	38	35	3	.921	59:05	Loss
C. Driedger	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamStuart Skinner WPG Faces EDM, his team until Dec 202517 saves on 18, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.0, WPG 3.1	EDM 4, WPG 1
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	EDM 28.7, WPG 27.3	EDM 39, WPG 18
Win chance	WPG 52%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.1	3	0.98	0	35%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.8	2	0.75	1	13%	0
EDM C. McDavid	2.7	4	1.23	2	33%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.5	4	0.51	1	22%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.4	4	0.38	0	8%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	3	0.90	1	32%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.1	2	0.47	0	23%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.9	2	0.45	0	21%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.9	2	0.58	0	20%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.7	3	0.27	1	5%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.7	3	0.35	1	13%	1
WPG A. Iafallo	1.7	2	0.44	1	18%	1
WPG M. Appleton	1.5	0	0.34	0	13%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.4	1	0.27	0	12%	0
EDM C. Dineen	1.4	0	0.16	0	2%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.4	2	0.33	2	17%	1
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	3	0.41	1	20%	1
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	0	0.26	0	6%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.3	0	0.45	0	14%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.3	1	0.23	1	7%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.2	3	0.21	0	10%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.1	1	0.24	0	10%	0
WPG J. Anderson-Dolan	1.0	0	0.17	0	8%	0
EDM N. Philp	0.9	3	0.15	0	7%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	1	0.28	0	5%	0
WPG B. Tanev	0.9	0	0.23	0	11%	0
EDM M. Jones	0.9	2	0.16	0	7%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.9	1	0.11	0	3%	0
WPG V. Heinola	0.9	1	0.16	0	2%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	1	0.24	0	9%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.8	0	0.12	0	2%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	1	0.16	0	2%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.7	0	0.17	0	3%	0
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.7	0	0.15	0	5%	0
WPG D. Toninato	0.7	0	0.19	0	8%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.6	2	0.13	1	7%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.