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Game Recap
EDM3
WPG1
EDM beat WPG 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 3.38 expected goals to 3.97. WPG outshot EDM 42 to 21. K. Connor had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. C. Pickard stopped 41 of 42.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| WPG | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 2nd 8:00EDMM. Jones0.12 xG
- 2nd 12:49EDMJ. RoslovicPP0.33 xG
- 3rd 5:46WPGA. Lowry0.13 xG
- 3rd 18:37EDMZ. HymanEN0.39 xG
Team Stats
EDMWPG
21Shots on goal42
3.38Expected goals3.97
45Shot attempts79
185v5 shots on goal31
1/1Power play0/3
22Hits32
17Blocked shots8
11Penalty minutes7
21Giveaways13
9Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 3.38 xGWPG 3.97 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:43 | 1:20 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:02 | 1:20 |
| M. Savoie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:16 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:16 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:16 |
| M. Jones | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:01 | 0:00 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:18 | 1:21 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 | 0:00 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 7 | 14:49 | 1:20 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:20 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 26:35 | 1:31 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:17 | 0:15 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:38 | 0:05 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:07 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:47 | 0:00 |
| R. Stillman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Pickard | 42 | 41 | 1 | .976 | 59:56 | Win |
| C. Ingram | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| A. Lowry | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 26:44 | 5:21 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 25:09 | 5:10 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:15 | 5:07 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:38 | 5:01 |
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:56 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:52 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:45 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:00 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:28 | 0:00 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:22 | 0:33 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 27:58 | 5:15 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:20 | 0:14 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 19:33 | 0:30 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:04 | 0:16 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 20 | 18 | 2 | .900 | 58:24 | Loss |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
EDM
Line 1Z. Hyman15:46C. McDavid17:21R. Nugent-Hopkins13:06
Line 2L. Draisaitl18:22V. Podkolzin13:48M. Savoie12:00
Line 3J. Roslovic12:56T. Frederic8:55M. Janmark13:52
Line 4A. Henrique9:13C. Lazar8:20M. Jones8:01
Pair 1M. Ekholm20:17E. Bouchard21:35
Pair 2D. Nurse19:07S. Stastney16:23
Pair 3T. Emberson12:48R. Stillman11:50
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele19:47G. Vilardi18:50K. Connor17:32
Line 2A. Lowry11:45M. Barron12:32T. Pearson10:48
Line 3A. Iafallo9:37C. Perfetti11:11V. Namestnikov8:49
Line 4G. Nyquist9:11N. Niederreiter11:45J. Toews10:32
Pair 1D. DeMelo20:44J. Morrissey21:07
Pair 2D. Samberg17:44N. Pionk16:28
Pair 3L. Schenn11:05L. Stanley14:13
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 2.8, WPG 3.0 | EDM 3, WPG 1 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 27.0, WPG 26.9 | EDM 21, WPG 42 |
| Win chance | WPG 54% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.3 | 9 | 1.18 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.1 | 1 | 1.42 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.8 | 4 | 0.96 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.8 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.6 | 1 | 1.21 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.3 | 2 | 1.14 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.1 | 3 | 0.84 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.0 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.9 | 0 | 0.76 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.8 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 1.8 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM J. Roslovic | 1.7 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.7 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.7 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG G. Nyquist | 1.3 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.2 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.2 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| EDM M. Savoie | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.2 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG T. Pearson | 1.1 | 4 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM S. Stastney | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM M. Jones | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.9 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM T. Frederic | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.8 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.6 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM R. Stillman | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| EDM C. Lazar | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.