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Game Recap
EDM4
FinalThu, Jan 8, 2026Every game that night
WPG3

EDM beat WPG 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.27 expected goals to 1.97. EDM outshot WPG 30 to 16. C. McDavid led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). I. Howard had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. C. Pickard stopped 13 of 16.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
EDM1124
WPG3003
  1. 1st 11:11WPGK. Connor0.19 xG
  2. 1st 17:02EDMV. Podkolzin0.16 xG
  3. 1st 18:16WPGT. Pearson0.04 xG
  4. 1st 18:56WPGJ. Morrissey0.03 xG
  5. 2nd 19:39EDMC. McDavid0.23 xG
  6. 3rd 8:19EDMZ. Hyman0.14 xG
  7. 3rd 10:37EDME. BouchardPP0.16 xG

Team Stats

EDMWPG
30Shots on goal16
3.27Expected goals1.97
51Shot attempts40
275v5 shots on goal13
1/2Power play0/2
9Hits24
8Blocked shots9
9Penalty minutes9
16Giveaways15
2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 3.27 xGWPG 1.97 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdWPG goal, 11:11EDM goal, 17:02WPG goal, 18:16WPG goal, 18:56EDM goal, 19:39EDM goal, 8:19EDM goal, 10:37

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM29 on goal, 4 scored
WPG16 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC112500+1024:243:16
L. DraisaitlC011200+2020:313:16
R. Nugent-HopkinsC011100+1219:533:16
Z. HymanLW1012000019:413:16
V. PodkolzinRW101120+1014:450:00
K. KapanenRW011110+1014:440:00
J. RoslovicC000200-2214:110:00
M. SavoieC000100-2012:470:00
I. HowardLW000400-2012:260:00
M. JanmarkC0002000012:120:00
C. LazarC000010006:510:00
T. FredericC000000056:470:00
E. BouchardD1124010026:023:16
D. NurseD011313-1020:050:00
T. EmbersonD011021+1016:400:00
S. StastneyD000100-2020:550:00
M. EkholmD000102+1020:070:00
R. StillmanD000021+1012:590:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Pickard16133.81360:00Win
C. Ingram000–0:00

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. ScheifeleC0221000022:432:59
K. ConnorLW112300-1020:432:58
A. IafalloLW011010-1016:501:09
T. PearsonLW101120+1010:200:00
C. KoepkeLW011150+109:290:00
G. VilardiC0000000018:213:03
J. ToewsC000300-1017:282:47
M. BarronC0000100016:020:03
A. LowryC0000200015:340:03
N. NiederreiterRW0003000414:430:57
C. PerfettiC0000310012:270:58
D. ZhilkinC000000+106:550:00
J. MorrisseyD101302+1024:402:48
N. PionkD000033+1022:201:10
D. DeMeloD000000-2019:430:03
D. SambergD000010-2019:210:03
L. StanleyD000111+1516:440:59
L. SchennD000052+1014:350:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Hellebuyck30264.86757:46Loss
E. Comrie000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman14:53C. McDavid17:29R. Nugent-Hopkins15:04
Line 2K. Kapanen14:41V. Podkolzin14:06L. Draisaitl15:40
Line 3J. Roslovic13:54M. Savoie10:52I. Howard12:15
Line 4M. Janmark9:16T. Frederic6:47C. Lazar6:30
Pair 1M. Ekholm19:05E. Bouchard19:25
Pair 2D. Nurse17:01S. Stastney18:03
Pair 3R. Stillman12:48T. Emberson14:41

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele17:30K. Connor14:49A. Iafallo14:35
Line 2N. Niederreiter13:46M. Barron14:51A. Lowry13:32
Line 3J. Toews12:12G. Vilardi13:11C. Perfetti11:29
Line 4T. Pearson10:20C. Koepke8:01D. Zhilkin6:55
Pair 1J. Morrissey19:48N. Pionk17:31
Pair 2L. Schenn13:54L. Stanley14:52
Pair 3D. DeMelo17:55D. Samberg17:19

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreEDM 2.9, WPG 3.2EDM 4, WPG 3
Total goals6.17
Shots on goalEDM 27.1, WPG 27.7EDM 30, WPG 16
Win chanceWPG 54%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WPG K. Connor3.531.20239%1
EDM C. McDavid3.251.44235%1
EDM E. Bouchard2.840.95218%1
EDM Z. Hyman2.820.78134%1
EDM L. Draisaitl2.621.21137%0
WPG M. Scheifele2.311.13237%0
WPG G. Vilardi2.100.87032%0
EDM M. Ekholm2.010.47010%0
EDM D. Nurse1.930.3519%0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins1.810.75121%0
WPG M. Barron1.800.36015%0
WPG J. Morrissey1.830.77115%1
EDM J. Roslovic1.820.47018%0
WPG N. Pionk1.700.3908%0
WPG C. Perfetti1.700.49017%0
WPG N. Niederreiter1.530.38018%0
WPG A. Iafallo1.400.37116%0
EDM V. Podkolzin1.410.37114%1
WPG D. Samberg1.300.2605%0
WPG J. Toews1.330.41014%0
WPG A. Lowry1.300.38016%0
WPG C. Koepke1.210.23111%0
EDM K. Kapanen1.110.28110%0
WPG T. Pearson1.110.26111%1
EDM M. Savoie1.110.25011%0
EDM I. Howard1.140.20010%0
EDM S. Stastney0.910.2004%0
WPG D. DeMelo0.900.3105%0
WPG L. Stanley0.810.2205%0
EDM T. Frederic0.800.1709%0
WPG L. Schenn0.800.1203%0
EDM M. Janmark0.720.2107%0
EDM T. Emberson0.700.1713%0
EDM R. Stillman0.600.1202%0
EDM C. Lazar0.500.1406%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.