Game Recap: FLA 4, BOS 3, October 21, 2025

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Game Recap

FLA4

FinalTue, Oct 21, 2025Every game that night

BOS3

FLA beat BOS 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.54 expected goals to 2.51. BOS outshot FLA 31 to 23. P. Zacha led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Kuraly had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. S. Bobrovsky stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	1	1	2	4
BOS	0	0	3	3

1st 1:01FLAM. SamoskevichPP0.56 xG
2nd 2:01FLAA. Greer0.10 xG
3rd 2:46BOSP. Zacha0.17 xG
3rd 4:46BOSE. LindholmPP0.08 xG
3rd 9:58FLAE. Luostarinen0.24 xG
3rd 18:29BOSM. Geekie0.58 xG
3rd 19:34FLAC. Verhaeghe0.17 xG

Team Stats

FLABOS

23Shots on goal31

3.54Expected goals2.51

44Shot attempts60

185v5 shots on goal25

1/3Power play1/5

26Hits23

16Blocked shots7

17Penalty minutes15

18Giveaways14

2Takeaways11

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.54 xGBOS 2.51 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA23 on goal, 4 scored

BOS28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Marchand	LW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	2	19:38	3:07
A. Lundell	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	19:43	3:02
E. Luostarinen	C	1	0	1	4	3	2	0	0	19:14	1:18
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	18:13	1:21
S. Bennett	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	2	17:08	1:26
M. Samoskevich	RW	1	0	1	4	3	0	0	0	13:44	3:09
A. Greer	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	5:50	0:00
J. Gadjovich	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	5	4:21	0:00
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	19:32	3:07
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	14:29	1:21
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	12:56	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:43	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	23:54	1:24
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	23:37	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	23:27	3:04
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+1	4	20:30	0:01
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	11:58	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	11:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	31	28	3	.903	60:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	2	2	4	1	0	0	0	23:05	7:14
P. Zacha	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	2	19:10	6:13
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	15:29	3:04
M. Geekie	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	21:16	6:31
E. Lindholm	C	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	2	19:06	5:54
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:09	3:23
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	16:25	0:01
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:46	0:02
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	7	10:39	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	9:50	0:01
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	9:09	2:02
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	7:07	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	26:30	5:54
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	2	22:07	0:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:00	2:37
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	16:23	0:08
J. Harris	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	15:20	0:08
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:45	3:18

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	23	19	4	.826	59:16	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe16:33S. Bennett15:22S. Reinhart14:37

Line 2B. Marchand14:15A. Lundell12:59E. Luostarinen11:51

Line 3E. Rodrigues12:49J. Boqvist12:13M. Samoskevich10:35

Line 4A. Greer5:50L. Kunin5:27J. Gadjovich4:21

Pair 1A. Ekblad16:43G. Forsling17:47

Pair 2N. Mikkola17:09S. Jones16:42

Pair 3J. Petry11:11U. Balinskis11:06

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak15:03M. Geekie14:24E. Lindholm12:45

Line 2S. Kuraly13:19M. Kastelic12:50J. Viel10:35

Line 3V. Arvidsson12:27C. Mittelstadt11:45P. Zacha11:42

Line 4T. Jeannot8:15F. Minten6:22M. Eyssimont7:07

Pair 1N. Zadorov19:13H. Jokiharju15:00

Pair 2A. Peeke13:54J. Harris15:03

Pair 3C. McAvoy17:23M. Lohrei10:23

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrad Marchand FLA Faces BOS, his team until Mar 20252 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.0, BOS 2.7	FLA 4, BOS 3
Total goals	5.7	7
Shots on goal	FLA 29.0, BOS 25.0	FLA 23, BOS 31
Win chance	FLA 56%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.3	4	1.11	2	39%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.9	2	0.70	1	28%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.9	1	0.98	0	38%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.6	2	0.73	1	28%	1
FLA B. Marchand	2.4	1	0.76	2	27%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.1	2	0.62	1	19%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.1	4	0.43	1	17%	1
BOS C. McAvoy	2.0	2	0.57	0	11%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.9	1	0.47	0	17%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.9	0	0.54	1	11%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	1	0.58	1	22%	1
BOS V. Arvidsson	1.8	1	0.42	1	17%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.8	0	0.49	0	11%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.8	0	0.37	1	9%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.7	2	0.68	1	27%	1
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.7	3	0.25	0	11%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.3	3	0.60	2	19%	1
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	3	0.29	0	8%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.2	4	0.38	1	13%	1
BOS S. Kuraly	1.2	4	0.25	0	12%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.2	0	0.33	0	5%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.1	2	0.24	0	11%	0
FLA L. Kunin	1.1	0	0.19	0	10%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	1.1	0	0.22	0	4%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	1	0.18	0	3%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.1	1	0.44	2	15%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.1	0	0.19	0	12%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.0	2	0.18	0	4%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.0	0	0.22	0	12%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.0	0	0.17	0	4%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.9	1	0.26	0	12%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.9	1	0.20	1	8%	1
FLA J. Petry	0.9	1	0.28	0	4%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.8	1	0.13	1	7%	0
BOS J. Viel	0.8	1	0.12	0	8%	0
BOS J. Harris	0.7	3	0.19	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.