Game Recap: FLA 1, BOS 4, November 8, 2026

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Game Recap

FLA1

FinalSun, Nov 8, 2026Every game that night

BOS4

BOS beat FLA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.28 expected goals to 3.43. D. Pastrnak led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Peterka had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Swayman stopped 40 of 41.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	1	0	0	1
BOS	3	0	1	4

1st 4:50BOSE. Lindholm0.03 xG
1st 6:11BOSM. Eyssimont0.21 xG
1st 15:59BOSM. GeekiePP0.17 xG
1st 18:05FLAC. VerhaeghePP0.08 xG
3rd 0:58BOSJ. Peterka0.33 xG

Team Stats

FLABOS

41Shots on goal36

3.43Expected goals4.28

62Shot attempts53

215v5 shots on goal22

1/5Power play1/9

38Hits13

6Blocked shots7

72Penalty minutes54

11Giveaways19

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.43 xGBOS 4.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA41 on goal, 1 scored

BOS36 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	5	5	0	-1	16	17:39	6:13
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	2	17:31	6:47
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	8	1	0	0	25	13:12	5:10
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-2	4	18:34	6:55
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	2	18:07	3:45
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	17:15	1:41
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	5	1	1	-1	2	16:33	2:37
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	5	12:56	0:00
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	10	11:21	1:26
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-2	2	9:09	0:00
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:43	0:00
B. Imama	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:32	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-3	0	25:33	7:41
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	21:51	0:13
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	21:35	0:58
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-3	0	18:19	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:14	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	11:55	0:45

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	36	32	4	.889	59:04	Loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Zacha	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	21:51	8:26
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	2	2	3	1	0	+1	0	21:16	10:42
E. Lindholm	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	18:58	8:34
J. Peterka	RW	1	0	1	7	0	0	+1	0	16:54	6:45
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:53	6:46
F. Minten	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	4	16:42	4:44
M. Geekie	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	0	14:49	9:32
M. Eyssimont	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	8:14	0:26
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	2	14:21	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:02	0:01
M. Poitras	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	11:25	3:53
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	17	7:15	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	2	21:08	7:45
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	22:14	0:41
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+2	0	17:28	7:59
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17	16:33	0:00
F. Brunet	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	15:36	1:18
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	10	14:28	0:53

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	41	40	1	.976	59:48	Win
M. DiPietro	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1S. Bennett12:50M. Tkachuk10:27B. Tkachuk7:20

Line 2L. Eller8:45S. Reinhart9:19C. Verhaeghe9:43

Line 3G. Hathaway6:51C. Schwindt6:54B. Imama7:52

Line 4A. Lundell6:20C. Reinhardt7:54E. Luostarinen4:38

Pair 1A. Ekblad12:02G. Forsling12:48

Pair 2R. Gudas10:05U. Balinskis10:41

Pair 3S. Jones10:28N. Mikkola10:13

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak8:54J. Peterka9:13P. Zacha8:28

Line 2C. Mittelstadt9:54M. Khusnutdinov10:09E. Lindholm7:29

Line 3M. Eyssimont7:48F. Minten8:42M. Geekie5:17

Line 4T. Jeannot9:12M. Kastelic6:25M. Poitras7:24

Pair 1W. Borgen13:57N. Zadorov9:34

Pair 2H. Lindholm10:11C. McAvoy10:26

Pair 3F. Brunet13:27M. Lohrei8:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 19 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
FLA B. Tkachuk	3.5	+121	-140	8	Over
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.5	+115	-130	3	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	+100	-115	2	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.5	+110	-135	5	Over
FLA S. Bennett	2.5	+129	-155	2	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	+100	-114	3	Over
FLA A. Ekblad	1.5	+145	-165	1	Under
FLA A. Lundell	1.5	-135	+105	5	Over
BOS C. McAvoy	1.5	-120	+110	2	Over
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.5	+125	-160	1	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	1.5	-135	+115	4	Over
BOS F. Minten	1.5	+105	-120	1	Under
FLA G. Forsling	1.5	+155	-155	1	Under
BOS J. Peterka	1.5	-180	+146	7	Over
FLA L. Eller	1.5	+121	-130	1	Under
BOS M. Geekie	1.5	-150	+125	5	Over
BOS M. Poitras	1.5	+105	-135	1	Under
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	-152	+125	1	Under
FLA S. Jones	1.5	-170	+140	3	Over

5 of 35 overs hit (14%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+490	-600	0	Under
FLA B. Imama	0.5	+1500	-2800	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+185	-200	0	Under
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	+525	-1000	0	Under
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+410	-600	0	Under
FLA C. Reinhardt	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
FLA C. Schwindt	0.5	+800	-2000	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+260	-370	1	Over
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	+140	-190	0	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+310	-390	1	Over
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+600	-800	0	Under
BOS F. Brunet	0.5	+1400	-5000	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+380	-600	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
FLA G. Hathaway	0.5	+1300	-1600	0	Under
BOS H. Lindholm	0.5	+1500	-2500	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+290	-400	1	Over
FLA L. Eller	0.5	+600	-1600	0	Under
BOS M. Eyssimont	0.5	+550	-1200	1	Over
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+240	-320	1	Over
BOS M. Kastelic	0.5	+850	-1000	0	Under
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
BOS M. Lohrei	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under
BOS M. Poitras	0.5	+600	-650	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+240	-300	0	Under
FLA N. Mikkola	0.5	+2200	-2800	0	Under
BOS N. Zadorov	0.5	+2000	-2800	0	Under
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+750	-1000	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+220	-250	0	Under
BOS T. Jeannot	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
FLA U. Balinskis	0.5	+2100	-3500	0	Under
BOS W. Borgen	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under

7 of 17 overs hit (41%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+275	-325	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+142	-180	1	Over
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	+128	-140	1	Over
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+230	-400	1	Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+180	-200	0	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	-120	+102	2	Over
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+200	-200	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+320	-325	1	Over
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+320	-400	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+170	-209	0	Under
FLA L. Eller	0.5	+320	-440	0	Under
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+145	-190	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	-105	-105	1	Over
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	+142	-155	2	Over
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+120	-135	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+165	-180	0	Under

11 of 17 overs hit (65%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
BOS D. Pastrnak	1.5	+158	-175	2	Over
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+215	-235	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	-155	+135	1	Over
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	-113	+105	1	Over
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+135	-170	1	Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	-110	-110	1	Over
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+100	-105	1	Over
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+165	-165	1	Over
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+260	-325	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+100	-112	1	Over
FLA L. Eller	0.5	+200	-260	0	Under
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	-132	+120	1	Over
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	-195	+170	1	Over
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	-145	+125	2	Over
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+115	-130	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	-105	+100	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	-125	+125	0	Under

6 of 15 overs hit (40%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+200	-260	1	Over
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	+210	-275	0	Under
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+240	-325	1	Over
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	+140	-190	1	Over
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+250	-325	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+525	-1000	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+475	-625	0	Under
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+210	-295	1	Over
BOS M. Lohrei	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+150	-185	1	Over
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	+250	-350	1	Over
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+190	-275	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+220	-290	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
BOS J. Swayman	25.5	+105	-105	40	Over
FLA J. Markstrom	22.5	-120	+100	32	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 2.8, BOS 3.4	FLA 1, BOS 4
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	FLA 27.0, BOS 26.1	FLA 41, BOS 36
Win chance	BOS 60%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA B. Tkachuk	3.4	8	0.74	1	29%	0
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.3	3	1.32	2	39%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.6	3	0.81	0	34%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.5	5	0.89	1	26%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	2	0.70	1	28%	1
FLA S. Bennett	2.4	2	0.54	0	24%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.0	5	0.47	0	18%	0
BOS J. Peterka	2.0	7	0.73	1	28%	1
BOS C. McAvoy	1.8	2	0.76	1	13%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.8	3	0.49	0	10%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.8	3	0.29	1	13%	1
BOS P. Zacha	1.7	1	0.81	2	26%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.7	5	0.75	1	29%	1
BOS E. Lindholm	1.7	4	0.70	1	24%	1
BOS F. Minten	1.5	1	0.49	1	21%	0
FLA L. Eller	1.5	1	0.35	0	14%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.4	0	0.38	0	6%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.4	1	0.35	0	8%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.4	0	0.37	0	13%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.4	1	0.25	0	6%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.2	0	0.29	0	6%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.2	1	0.53	1	17%	0
FLA C. Reinhardt	1.1	1	0.25	0	12%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.1	1	0.39	0	9%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.0	4	0.18	0	5%	0
BOS W. Borgen	1.0	1	0.25	0	5%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.0	2	0.27	0	12%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.0	0	0.17	0	5%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.8	2	0.33	0	13%	0
BOS F. Brunet	0.8	1	0.24	0	3%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	0.8	1	0.24	0	10%	0
BOS M. Poitras	0.7	1	0.27	0	8%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.7	1	0.15	0	7%	0
FLA G. Hathaway	0.7	2	0.13	0	7%	0
FLA B. Imama	0.6	1	0.05	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.