Game Recap: FLA 4, BUF 3, January 12, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

FLA4

FinalMon, Jan 12, 2026Every game that night

BUF3

FLA beat BUF 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.32 expected goals to 2.53. FLA outshot BUF 32 to 23. C. Verhaeghe led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). S. Reinhart had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. S. Bobrovsky stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	2	0	2	4
BUF	1	1	1	3

1st 2:35FLAS. ReinhartPP0.11 xG
1st 10:19BUFJ. Bryson0.01 xG
1st 15:11FLAA. Greer0.05 xG
2nd 17:57BUFZ. Benson0.71 xG
3rd 11:07FLAA. Lundell0.65 xG
3rd 18:46FLAA. GreerEN0.59 xG
3rd 19:46BUFA. Tuch0.04 xG

Team Stats

FLABUF

32Shots on goal23

3.32Expected goals2.53

70Shot attempts55

285v5 shots on goal20

1/1Power play0/2

18Hits22

14Blocked shots19

9Penalty minutes7

11Giveaways21

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.32 xGBUF 2.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA32 on goal, 4 scored

BUF21 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	3	3	1	1	1	+1	0	20:39	0:19
S. Bennett	C	0	2	2	4	2	0	+1	2	19:29	0:19
A. Greer	LW	2	0	2	2	1	0	+1	0	17:35	0:00
S. Reinhart	C	1	0	1	7	1	1	0	0	20:55	0:19
A. Lundell	C	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0	18:53	0:19
E. Luostarinen	C	0	1	1	1	1	3	0	0	18:29	0:00
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	16:40	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:46	0:00
S. Vilmanis	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	12:03	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	6:25	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	6:14	0:00
J. Studnicka	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	5:31	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	24:12	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	22:19	0:19
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	25:16	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	23:58	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	13:15	0:00
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	5	10:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	23	20	3	.870	59:37	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	0	1	1	5	0	2	0	0	22:08	2:20
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	18:51	2:09
Z. Benson	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	18:17	1:40
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	17:55	1:35
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	19:14	1:51
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	18:03	1:40
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	16:53	2:18
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	16:43	2:13
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:47	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	8:07	0:00
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	5	7:13	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	6:41	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	25:27	1:58
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	24:16	1:47
Z. Metsa	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	10:07	0:00
J. Bryson	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	8:18	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	2	6	3	-1	0	24:27	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	23:46	0:29

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ellis	31	28	3	.903	57:28	Loss
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe18:46S. Bennett18:22A. Greer16:00

Line 2E. Luostarinen16:21A. Lundell16:20S. Reinhart17:53

Line 3E. Rodrigues13:14M. Samoskevich13:11S. Vilmanis11:29

Line 4L. Kunin5:19J. Boqvist5:49J. Studnicka5:31

Pair 1A. Ekblad20:27G. Forsling20:42

Pair 2N. Mikkola22:12U. Balinskis19:31

Pair 3J. Petry12:22D. Sebrango10:21

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson17:48J. Doan15:46P. Krebs14:42

Line 2A. Tuch15:28J. Norris13:35J. Zucker13:40

Line 3R. McLeod14:01J. Quinn15:28Z. Benson15:42

Line 4B. Malenstyn6:41J. Dunne7:13J. Greenway8:07

Pair 1M. Samuelsson23:14R. Dahlin22:24

Pair 2O. Power21:40B. Byram20:19

Pair 3J. Bryson8:18Z. Metsa9:44

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.3, BUF 3.1	FLA 4, BUF 3
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	FLA 28.9, BUF 26.9	FLA 32, BUF 23
Win chance	FLA 52%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Bennett	3.1	4	0.86	2	33%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.0	5	0.94	1	39%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.9	7	1.06	1	42%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.7	1	0.81	1	14%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.4	4	0.72	1	23%	1
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.3	1	0.73	3	28%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.3	4	0.58	0	21%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.2	2	0.79	1	29%	1
BUF J. Doan	2.1	1	0.65	0	23%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.0	0	0.38	0	14%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.0	2	0.64	0	24%	0
BUF O. Power	1.7	0	0.46	0	7%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.6	0	0.53	0	11%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.6	1	0.46	1	14%	1
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.6	1	0.51	1	16%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.5	4	0.52	0	18%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.5	2	0.40	1	10%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.4	0	0.61	0	27%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.4	1	0.57	1	13%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.4	2	0.37	0	7%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.3	2	0.30	2	13%	2
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	0	0.58	1	19%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.1	0	0.25	1	6%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	3	0.23	0	6%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	2	0.35	0	10%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.9	1	0.25	0	4%	0
BUF J. Greenway	0.9	0	0.22	0	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	0	0.17	0	7%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.8	1	0.16	0	7%	0
FLA L. Kunin	0.8	1	0.13	0	8%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.7	0	0.20	0	10%	0
FLA J. Studnicka	0.7	0	0.08	0	4%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.6	0	0.11	1	4%	0
FLA D. Sebrango	0.5	0	0.12	0	2%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	1	0.12	1	1%	1

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.