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Game Recap
FLA1
CAR9
CAR beat FLA 9-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.07 expected goals to 1.69. CAR outshot FLA 36 to 16. N. Ehlers scored three for CAR. N. Ehlers had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. B. Bussi stopped 15 of 16.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| CAR | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
- 1st 18:35CARN. Ehlers0.16 xG
- 2nd 1:19FLAU. Balinskis0.09 xG
- 2nd 13:10CARM. Jankowski0.45 xG
- 2nd 16:28CARA. NikishinPP0.04 xG
- 3rd 4:08CARA. SvechnikovPP0.18 xG
- 3rd 11:17CARN. EhlersPP0.23 xG
- 3rd 11:38CART. HallPP0.26 xG
- 3rd 13:03CARN. Ehlers0.20 xG
- 3rd 18:23CART. Hall0.30 xG
- 3rd 18:35CARE. Robinson0.18 xG
Team Stats
FLACAR
16Shots on goal36
1.69Expected goals4.07
35Shot attempts63
115v5 shots on goal26
0/5Power play4/5
19Hits30
13Blocked shots8
27Penalty minutes17
16Giveaways20
5Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 1.69 xGCAR 4.07 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 16:36 | 1:48 |
| S. Vilmanis | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:59 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:04 | 6:23 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:24 | 6:26 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:36 | 6:25 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 10 | 16:31 | 2:29 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:12 | 2:57 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:08 | 1:41 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9:26 | 0:09 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:12 | 1:02 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:23 | 0:09 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:31 | 5:03 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:22 | 3:06 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:21 | 1:34 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:16 | 0:16 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:41 | 0:07 |
| D. Sebrango | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 7 | 12:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 36 | 27 | 9 | .750 | 60:00 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Ehlers | LW | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:14 | 2:16 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:21 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:40 | 2:26 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:07 | 2:26 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 2:26 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:21 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:25 |
| T. Hall | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:25 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:12 | 0:14 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12:54 | 0:04 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:50 | 1:49 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 4 | 14:14 | 0:04 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 27:30 | 0:38 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 21:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 19:21 | 0:04 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Bussi | 16 | 15 | 1 | .938 | 59:47 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
Line 1C. Verhaeghe14:03A. Greer12:50S. Bennett13:47
Line 2M. Samoskevich13:57S. Vilmanis11:57E. Rodrigues11:37
Line 3S. Reinhart11:57A. Lundell11:39E. Luostarinen12:35
Line 4L. Kunin7:58C. Schwindt7:57J. Boqvist7:49
Pair 1A. Ekblad14:24G. Forsling16:09
Pair 2N. Mikkola18:14U. Balinskis15:41
Pair 3J. Petry15:38D. Sebrango12:08
CAR
Line 1T. Hall11:15L. Stankoven12:39J. Blake11:48
Line 2J. Staal12:03N. Ehlers11:10J. Martinook10:51
Line 3S. Aho10:40A. Svechnikov12:44S. Jarvis10:55
Line 4M. Jankowski10:40E. Robinson10:59J. Kotkaniemi12:17
Pair 2M. Reilly13:21A. Nikishin13:16
Pair 3J. Chatfield15:26J. Slavin13:01
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.8, CAR 3.2 | FLA 1, CAR 9 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 24.6, CAR 29.8 | FLA 16, CAR 36 |
| Win chance | CAR 56% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.8 | 2 | 0.83 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 0 | 1.00 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.6 | 4 | 0.83 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.4 | 2 | 0.76 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.4 | 7 | 0.80 | 4 | 27% | 3 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.2 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.2 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.2 | 2 | 0.90 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.2 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.1 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 1.8 | 0 | 0.46 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.8 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 2 | 19% | 2 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR M. Reilly | 1.5 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.4 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.3 | 4 | 0.43 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.3 | 3 | 0.34 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.3 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 3 | 13% | 1 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA C. Schwindt | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA D. Sebrango | 0.4 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.