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Game Recap
FLA1
CAR0
FLA beat CAR 1-0 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.92 expected goals to 2.46. N. Mikkola had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. J. Markstrom stopped 15 of 15.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- OT 4:55FLAG. Forsling0.04 xG
Team Stats
FLACAR
20Shots on goal15
1.92Expected goals2.46
49Shot attempts37
125v5 shots on goal5
0/7Power play0/6
43Hits41
13Blocked shots19
17Penalty minutes17
12Giveaways15
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 1.92 xGCAR 2.46 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:58 | 4:29 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 7:25 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:32 | 6:18 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:08 | 5:34 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 | 4:13 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:01 | 8:25 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:33 | 6:05 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:52 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Vilmanis | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9:37 | 0:06 |
| B. Imama | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6:03 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 22:40 | 2:33 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28:59 | 7:26 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:32 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:17 | 4:43 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11:46 | 0:00 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 15 | 15 | 0 | 1.000 | 64:55 | Win |
| A. Schmid | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:38 | 7:41 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 20:56 | 5:49 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:54 | 2:46 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 | 6:51 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 1:28 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:21 | 5:48 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:27 | 2:48 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:51 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:46 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5:01 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 25:15 | 2:59 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:32 | 0:08 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 | 0:06 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19:10 | 0:23 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 5:32 |
| C. Legault | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Bussi | 20 | 19 | 1 | .950 | 64:55 | OT loss |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
Line 1C. Verhaeghe13:05S. Bennett12:07M. Tkachuk9:08
Line 2S. Reinhart10:33A. Barkov9:44B. Tkachuk9:22
Line 3E. Luostarinen9:17S. Vilmanis11:23A. Lundell8:56
Line 4L. Eller9:28G. Hathaway7:27B. Imama6:03
Pair 1S. Jones16:52N. Mikkola16:37
Pair 2D. Kulikov11:29R. Gudas10:23
Pair 3A. Ekblad10:02G. Forsling12:39
CAR
Line 1L. Stankoven12:59J. Blake11:49T. Hall11:33
Line 2J. Staal10:33J. Martinook10:10N. Ehlers10:25
Line 3S. Aho10:15A. Svechnikov9:12E. Robinson9:45
Line 4W. Carrier6:46N. Deslauriers5:01M. Jankowski7:36
Pair 1J. Slavin15:04J. Chatfield13:13
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere11:46C. Legault11:19
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Prop Results
2 of 16 overs hit (13%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SOG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | +120 | -140 | 2 | Under |
| FLA B. Tkachuk | 2.5 | -130 | +118 | 1 | Under |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.5 | +125 | -155 | 2 | Under |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.5 | +125 | -148 | 2 | Under |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.5 | +135 | -160 | 2 | Under |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.5 | +127 | -148 | 4 | Over |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.5 | +140 | -176 | 1 | Under |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.5 | +150 | -154 | 2 | Under |
| FLA A. Barkov | 1.5 | -120 | +108 | 1 | Under |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.5 | +120 | -140 | 3 | Over |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 1.5 | -160 | +135 | 1 | Under |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | -115 | -105 | 0 | Under |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 1.5 | -150 | +136 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.5 | -120 | +108 | 1 | Under |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.5 | -112 | -110 | 1 | Under |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.5 | -130 | +106 | 1 | Under |
1 of 35 overs hit (3%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | G | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA A. Barkov | 0.5 | +275 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 0.5 | +950 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| FLA A. Lundell | 0.5 | +380 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 0.5 | +200 | -260 | 0 | Under |
| FLA B. Imama | 0.5 | +1450 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| FLA B. Tkachuk | 0.5 | +200 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 0.5 | +300 | -400 | 0 | Under |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.5 | +2000 | -5000 | 0 | Under |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 0.5 | +500 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| CAR E. Robinson | 0.5 | +425 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| FLA G. Forsling | 0.5 | +1200 | -3500 | 1 | Over |
| FLA G. Hathaway | 0.5 | +1000 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Blake | 0.5 | +240 | -320 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 0.5 | +1500 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Martinook | 0.5 | +475 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Slavin | 0.5 | +1500 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Staal | 0.5 | +295 | -475 | 0 | Under |
| CAR K. Miller | 0.5 | +800 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| FLA L. Eller | 0.5 | +1000 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 0.5 | +230 | -320 | 0 | Under |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.5 | +700 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 0.5 | +210 | -280 | 0 | Under |
| CAR N. Deslauriers | 0.5 | +1100 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 0.5 | +250 | -350 | 0 | Under |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 0.5 | +1300 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| FLA R. Gudas | 0.5 | +2100 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Aho | 0.5 | +230 | -290 | 0 | Under |
| FLA S. Bennett | 0.5 | +250 | -350 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 0.5 | +600 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| FLA S. Jones | 0.5 | +800 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 0.5 | +210 | -270 | 0 | Under |
| FLA S. Vilmanis | 0.5 | +1000 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Walker | 0.5 | +900 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| CAR T. Hall | 0.5 | +300 | -475 | 0 | Under |
| CAR W. Carrier | 0.5 | +1100 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
1 of 32 overs hit (3%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA A. Barkov | 0.5 | +125 | -145 | 0 | Under |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 0.5 | +235 | -330 | 0 | Under |
| FLA A. Lundell | 0.5 | +275 | -390 | 0 | Under |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 0.5 | +165 | -225 | 0 | Under |
| FLA B. Tkachuk | 0.5 | +200 | -245 | 0 | Under |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 0.5 | +250 | -350 | 1 | Over |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.5 | +425 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 0.5 | +350 | -525 | 0 | Under |
| CAR E. Robinson | 0.5 | +320 | -475 | 0 | Under |
| FLA G. Forsling | 0.5 | +265 | -370 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Blake | 0.5 | +175 | -240 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 0.5 | +320 | -475 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Martinook | 0.5 | +340 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Slavin | 0.5 | +270 | -380 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Staal | 0.5 | +245 | -350 | 0 | Under |
| CAR K. Miller | 0.5 | +195 | -265 | 0 | Under |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 0.5 | +225 | -310 | 0 | Under |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.5 | +425 | – | 0 | Under |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 0.5 | +145 | -180 | 0 | Under |
| CAR N. Deslauriers | 0.5 | +650 | – | 0 | Under |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 0.5 | +150 | -200 | 0 | Under |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 0.5 | +400 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| FLA R. Gudas | 0.5 | +500 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Aho | 0.5 | +110 | -140 | 0 | Under |
| FLA S. Bennett | 0.5 | +235 | -295 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 0.5 | +135 | -175 | 0 | Under |
| FLA S. Jones | 0.5 | +145 | -170 | 0 | Under |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 0.5 | +145 | -185 | 0 | Under |
| FLA S. Vilmanis | 0.5 | +650 | -1100 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Walker | 0.5 | +295 | -425 | 0 | Under |
| CAR T. Hall | 0.5 | +215 | -255 | 0 | Under |
| CAR W. Carrier | 0.5 | +400 | – | 0 | Under |
2 of 31 overs hit (6%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | P | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA A. Barkov | 0.5 | -132 | +120 | 0 | Under |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 0.5 | +180 | -245 | 0 | Under |
| FLA A. Lundell | 0.5 | +150 | -190 | 0 | Under |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 0.5 | -130 | +100 | 0 | Under |
| FLA B. Tkachuk | 0.5 | -130 | +110 | 0 | Under |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 0.5 | +125 | -145 | 1 | Over |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.5 | +340 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 0.5 | +185 | -255 | 0 | Under |
| CAR E. Robinson | 0.5 | +170 | -230 | 0 | Under |
| FLA G. Forsling | 0.5 | +205 | -285 | 1 | Over |
| CAR J. Blake | 0.5 | -120 | -105 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 0.5 | +265 | -370 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Martinook | 0.5 | +180 | -245 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Slavin | 0.5 | +225 | -320 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Staal | 0.5 | +130 | -160 | 0 | Under |
| CAR K. Miller | 0.5 | +160 | -190 | 0 | Under |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 0.5 | +100 | -130 | 0 | Under |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.5 | +265 | -380 | 0 | Under |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 0.5 | -145 | +125 | 0 | Under |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 0.5 | -132 | +105 | 0 | Under |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 0.5 | +300 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| FLA R. Gudas | 0.5 | +390 | -575 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Aho | 0.5 | -165 | +135 | 0 | Under |
| FLA S. Bennett | 0.5 | +105 | -130 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 0.5 | -105 | -125 | 0 | Under |
| FLA S. Jones | 0.5 | +105 | -132 | 0 | Under |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 0.5 | -130 | +120 | 0 | Under |
| FLA S. Vilmanis | 0.5 | +390 | -600 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Walker | 0.5 | +215 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| CAR T. Hall | 0.5 | +110 | -135 | 0 | Under |
| CAR W. Carrier | 0.5 | +285 | -400 | 0 | Under |
0 of 18 overs hit (0%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | PPP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA A. Barkov | 0.5 | +250 | -375 | 0 | Under |
| FLA A. Lundell | 0.5 | +400 | -1100 | 0 | Under |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 0.5 | +220 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| FLA B. Tkachuk | 0.5 | +290 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 0.5 | +390 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Blake | 0.5 | +210 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Staal | 0.5 | +450 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| CAR K. Miller | 0.5 | +390 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 0.5 | +360 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 0.5 | +210 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 0.5 | +200 | -280 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Aho | 0.5 | +165 | -240 | 0 | Under |
| FLA S. Bennett | 0.5 | +340 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 0.5 | +190 | -260 | 0 | Under |
| FLA S. Jones | 0.5 | +260 | -400 | 0 | Under |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 0.5 | +270 | -425 | 0 | Under |
| CAR T. Hall | 0.5 | +380 | -900 | 0 | Under |
0 of 2 overs hit (0%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA J. Markstrom | 26.5 | +106 | -125 | 15 | Under |
| CAR B. Bussi | 21.5 | -120 | -105 | 19 | Under |
Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.6, CAR 3.5 | FLA 1, CAR 0 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 22.6, CAR 31.1 | FLA 20, CAR 15 |
| Win chance | CAR 65% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA B. Tkachuk | 3.3 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.4 | 2 | 0.93 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.4 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.3 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.3 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.3 | 1 | 0.66 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.3 | 4 | 0.92 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.3 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.2 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 2.1 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.0 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.0 | 1 | 0.88 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.8 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.7 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.7 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.6 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.6 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.2 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| CAR C. Legault | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA L. Eller | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 0.8 | 4 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA S. Vilmanis | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA G. Hathaway | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CAR N. Deslauriers | 0.7 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA R. Gudas | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| FLA B. Imama | 0.5 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.