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Game Recap
FLA4
FinalTue, Nov 10, 2026Every game that night
CBJ1

FLA beat CBJ 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.43 expected goals to 2.61. CBJ outshot FLA 38 to 28. S. Bennett led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). I. Provorov had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Markstrom stopped 37 of 38.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
FLA0224
CBJ0101
  1. 2nd 2:00FLAS. BennettPP0.16 xG
  2. 2nd 4:17FLAL. Eller0.13 xG
  3. 2nd 19:41CBJI. Provorov0.17 xG
  4. 3rd 14:29FLAS. Bennett0.05 xG
  5. 3rd 17:44FLAS. ReinhartEN0.75 xG

Team Stats

FLACBJ
28Shots on goal38
3.43Expected goals2.61
48Shot attempts73
235v5 shots on goal35
1/1Power play0/1
24Hits27
16Blocked shots8
14Penalty minutes14
21Giveaways19
4Takeaways10

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.43 xGCBJ 2.61 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdFLA goal, 2:00FLA goal, 4:17CBJ goal, 19:41FLA goal, 14:29FLA goal, 17:44

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA28 on goal, 4 scored
CBJ38 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. BennettC202410+1217:010:25
A. LundellC0222120016:340:15
C. VerhaegheC011400+1018:001:11
M. TkachukLW011010+1017:131:36
S. ReinhartC101301+2017:081:23
E. LuostarinenC0111010014:580:13
L. EllerC101330+1014:300:00
B. TkachukLW00023001216:511:21
J. DevineRW000210-1013:580:00
G. HathawayRW0000410010:590:00
C. SchwindtRW0000310010:160:00
B. ImamaLW000011009:510:00
A. EkbladD022000+2020:550:04
S. JonesD011006+1021:481:32
G. ForslingD000220+2022:460:00
N. MikkolaD000200+1020:500:00
R. GudasD000323-1016:140:00
D. KulikovD000020-1016:080:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Markstrom38371.97460:00Win
A. Schmid000–0:00

CBJ Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
V. NichushkinRW011410+1018:470:49
D. VoronkovLW011040+1016:400:46
A. FantilliC0003200219:180:47
S. MonahanC000301-1017:011:11
K. JohnsonC000000-1016:451:11
M. KniesLW000210-1016:081:13
C. CoyleC000220-2215:151:14
C. SillingerC000331-2015:110:00
M. OlivierRW000220-1014:450:00
R. LombergLW000140009:520:00
J. WilliamsC000110009:230:00
S. LorentzC000020009:000:00
I. ProvorovD101600-2020:570:39
Z. WerenskiD0006110028:021:21
D. SeversonD0001010024:010:00
D. MateychukD000212-1020:450:49
D. FabbroD0002100012:370:00
E. GudbransonD000022-11012:320:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Talbot27243.88959:25Loss
J. Greaves000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe16:01S. Reinhart14:17L. Eller13:38
Line 2S. Bennett15:55M. Tkachuk14:57B. Tkachuk15:30
Line 3J. Devine13:58A. Lundell14:05E. Luostarinen12:32
Line 4C. Schwindt10:16G. Hathaway10:14B. Imama9:51
Pair 1G. Forsling20:49A. Ekblad19:01
Pair 2S. Jones17:50N. Mikkola18:12
Pair 3D. Kulikov15:46R. Gudas16:13

CBJ

Line 1V. Nichushkin16:39A. Fantilli17:56D. Voronkov15:54
Line 2S. Monahan14:01K. Johnson14:45M. Knies14:24
Line 3M. Olivier13:22C. Sillinger13:22C. Coyle12:44
Line 4S. Lorentz9:00J. Williams9:23R. Lomberg9:52
Pair 1Z. Werenski25:23D. Severson22:43
Pair 2I. Provorov17:39D. Mateychuk17:48
Pair 3E. Gudbranson12:18D. Fabbro11:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

14 of 20 overs hit (70%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
FLA B. Tkachuk3.5+120-1402Under
CBJ A. Fantilli2.5+120-1353Over
FLA A. Lundell2.5+146-1852Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.5+115-1464Over
FLA M. Tkachuk2.5-108-1100Under
FLA S. Bennett2.5+135-1604Over
FLA S. Reinhart2.5+100-1203Over
CBJ Z. Werenski2.5-155+1306Over
FLA A. Ekblad1.5+141-1800Under
CBJ C. Coyle1.5-125+1052Over
CBJ C. Sillinger1.5+115-1303Over
CBJ D. Mateychuk1.5+125-1352Over
FLA G. Forsling1.5+120-1352Over
CBJ I. Provorov1.5-105-1206Over
CBJ K. Johnson1.5-155+1350Under
CBJ M. Knies1.5-105-1152Over
CBJ M. Olivier1.5-110-1052Over
FLA S. Jones1.5-140+1200Under
CBJ S. Monahan1.5+125-1603Over
CBJ V. Nichushkin1.5+105-1204Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreFLA 3.1, CBJ 3.1FLA 4, CBJ 1
Total goals6.35
Shots on goalFLA 27.1, CBJ 26.9FLA 28, CBJ 38
Win chanceCBJ 50%FLA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CBJ Z. Werenski3.461.07021%0
FLA B. Tkachuk3.220.81031%0
FLA S. Reinhart2.530.92137%1
CBJ A. Fantilli2.530.76029%0
FLA M. Tkachuk2.401.01129%0
FLA S. Bennett2.440.64227%2
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.440.80130%0
FLA A. Lundell2.020.54220%0
FLA S. Jones2.000.61114%0
CBJ K. Johnson2.000.72024%0
CBJ V. Nichushkin1.840.66127%0
CBJ I. Provorov1.760.3818%1
CBJ C. Coyle1.720.74024%0
CBJ M. Olivier1.720.48021%0
CBJ M. Knies1.620.77026%0
CBJ C. Sillinger1.630.45016%0
CBJ D. Mateychuk1.520.44011%0
FLA A. Ekblad1.500.40210%0
FLA L. Eller1.530.39115%1
CBJ S. Monahan1.530.58020%0
FLA G. Forsling1.520.3008%0
CBJ D. Voronkov1.300.38118%0
FLA E. Luostarinen1.210.40114%0
CBJ D. Severson1.210.4409%0
FLA N. Mikkola1.020.2006%0
CBJ S. Lorentz1.000.27011%0
CBJ D. Fabbro0.920.1804%0
FLA J. Devine0.920.1006%0
FLA R. Gudas0.830.1503%0
CBJ R. Lomberg0.810.1407%0
CBJ E. Gudbranson0.800.1502%0
FLA C. Schwindt0.700.1708%0
FLA G. Hathaway0.700.1608%0
FLA D. Kulikov0.700.1504%0
FLA B. Imama0.600.0604%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.