Game Recap: FLA 1, CGY 4, March 20, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

FLA1

FinalFri, Mar 20, 2026Every game that night

CGY4

CGY beat FLA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.32 expected goals to 1.71. CGY outshot FLA 36 to 25. B. Coleman led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). V. Olofsson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. D. Wolf stopped 24 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	0	0	1	1
CGY	0	2	2	4

2nd 7:44CGYJ. Farabee0.01 xG
2nd 10:10CGYV. Olofsson0.14 xG
3rd 4:17FLAA. Greer0.04 xG
3rd 16:59CGYM. FrostPP0.38 xG
3rd 17:30CGYM. CoronatoPP0.16 xG

Team Stats

FLACGY

25Shots on goal36

1.71Expected goals3.32

49Shot attempts55

175v5 shots on goal18

0/2Power play2/7

27Hits18

7Blocked shots11

25Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways16

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 1.71 xGCGY 3.32 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA23 on goal, 1 scored

CGY36 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Nosek	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	2	14:21	0:00
A. Greer	LW	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	17	13:23	0:00
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	17:13	2:43
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	16:15	2:43
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	15:40	2:42
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	15:13	2:42
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	14:38	0:56
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:55	0:56
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:36	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	13:16	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	12:19	0:56
N. Foote	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	9:42	0:00
D. Sebrango	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	16:52	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	24:32	2:43
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	21:54	0:56
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	19:22	0:00
M. Benning	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	18:12	0:57
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-2	2	17:01	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	36	32	4	.889	60:00	Loss
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Coleman	LW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	17:39	5:59
M. Gridin	RW	0	1	1	4	0	1	-1	0	19:09	5:57
M. Coronato	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	2	18:49	5:56
M. Frost	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	-1	0	17:56	5:52
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:26	0:25
J. Farabee	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	2	14:05	1:37
V. Olofsson	LW	1	0	1	6	0	0	+1	0	12:57	4:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	10:32	0:00
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	4	0	2	+1	0	17:58	3:52
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:39	3:25
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:20	2:29
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	2	9:38	0:00
Z. Parekh	D	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	0	20:06	7:03
O. Määttä	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:59	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	+1	0	20:36	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:12	0:09
H. Brzustewicz	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	17:31	2:53
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	25	24	1	.960	59:53	Win
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe11:43S. Bennett12:02M. Tkachuk11:44

Line 2T. Nosek10:59C. Reinhardt12:28A. Greer10:54

Line 3E. Luostarinen10:13E. Rodrigues10:44J. Boqvist9:56

Line 4V. Hinostroza11:18L. Kunin9:52N. Foote9:37

Pair 1D. Kulikov15:05A. Ekblad15:22

Pair 2S. Jones15:13N. Mikkola13:45

Pair 3M. Benning15:38D. Sebrango13:27

CGY

Line 1M. Coronato12:51M. Gridin13:12M. Frost12:04

Line 2R. Strome12:21Y. Sharangovich12:35C. Zary10:46

Line 3M. Pospisil9:38A. Klapka10:32V. Olofsson8:32

Line 4M. Backlund10:14J. Farabee10:41B. Coleman8:51

Pair 1Z. Whitecloud17:06K. Bahl16:19

Pair 2O. Määttä14:47H. Brzustewicz14:38

Pair 3Z. Parekh12:41J. Hanley12:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 2.9, CGY 2.9	FLA 1, CGY 4
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	FLA 27.9, CGY 27.6	FLA 25, CGY 36
Win chance	CGY 50%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Bennett	2.7	0	0.75	0	28%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.6	3	0.96	0	29%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.4	1	0.59	2	25%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.3	3	0.66	0	25%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.2	3	0.47	0	17%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	3	0.56	1	22%	1
CGY M. Backlund	2.2	4	0.56	0	20%	0
CGY M. Gridin	1.8	4	0.47	1	17%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.7	2	0.46	1	22%	0
CGY V. Olofsson	1.7	6	0.47	1	22%	1
CGY J. Farabee	1.6	3	0.45	1	19%	1
FLA S. Jones	1.5	0	0.36	0	8%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.5	4	0.49	1	17%	1
FLA A. Greer	1.5	1	0.33	1	14%	1
CGY C. Zary	1.4	0	0.42	0	17%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.4	1	0.44	0	9%	0
CGY R. Strome	1.3	1	0.50	0	15%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.3	1	0.39	0	13%	0
CGY H. Brzustewicz	1.2	2	0.20	0	6%	0
FLA N. Foote	1.2	1	0.26	0	13%	0
CGY O. Määttä	1.1	1	0.31	1	5%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.1	4	0.26	1	7%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.0	0	0.24	0	7%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.0	0	0.27	1	12%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	0	0.29	0	5%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.0	0	0.25	0	6%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.0	2	0.18	0	5%	0
FLA L. Kunin	1.0	1	0.15	0	9%	0
FLA V. Hinostroza	0.9	3	0.21	0	9%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.9	0	0.20	1	6%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.9	0	0.25	0	11%	0
FLA C. Reinhardt	0.9	3	0.19	0	10%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.8	1	0.17	0	4%	0
FLA D. Sebrango	0.7	1	0.09	1	2%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	1	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.