Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
FLA5
CHI1
FLA beat CHI 5-1, with the chances close: 2.50 expected goals to 2.01. T. Bjornfot led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Bertuzzi had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. D. Tarasov stopped 21 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| CHI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 15:33FLAT. Bjornfot0.19 xG
- 2nd 19:30CHIT. Bertuzzi0.18 xG
- 3rd 5:20FLAM. Samoskevich0.04 xG
- 3rd 7:24FLAC. Verhaeghe0.13 xG
- 3rd 18:11FLAS. ReinhartEN0.30 xG
- 3rd 19:38FLAT. Bjornfot0.16 xG
Team Stats
FLACHI
25Shots on goal22
2.50Expected goals2.01
47Shot attempts39
225v5 shots on goal19
0/1Power play0/3
25Hits11
5Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes2
14Giveaways12
7Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.50 xGCHI 2.01 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:44 | 0:51 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:51 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:51 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:51 | 1:09 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:15 | 0:51 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 9:36 | 0:00 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:16 | 1:09 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 | 1:09 |
| S. Vilmanis | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:00 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:46 | 1:09 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 9:24 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 23:20 | 0:51 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:44 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:08 | 1:09 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 20:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 22 | 21 | 1 | .955 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 | 3:35 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:09 | 0:19 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:07 | 3:37 |
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:41 | 3:35 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:24 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 15:50 | 3:22 |
| O. Moore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:45 | 1:59 |
| N. Lardis | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:10 | 2:01 |
| R. Greene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 13:27 | 2:02 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 | 2:08 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:17 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:43 | 0:16 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:47 | 3:27 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:17 | 0:10 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:57 | 2:23 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 18:49 | 0:25 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 17:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 24 | 20 | 4 | .833 | 59:00 | Loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
Line 1S. Bennett16:00S. Vilmanis15:08M. Tkachuk14:17
Line 2C. Verhaeghe14:26E. Rodrigues13:31S. Reinhart11:50
Line 3B. Marchand13:37A. Lundell13:35E. Luostarinen13:01
Line 4A. Greer9:24C. Schwindt8:40M. Samoskevich9:24
Pair 1N. Mikkola20:11U. Balinskis19:18
Pair 2A. Ekblad17:28G. Forsling17:56
Pair 3J. Petry14:17T. Bjornfot12:57
CHI
Line 1J. Dickinson14:13I. Mikheyev15:15T. Bertuzzi13:42
Line 2N. Foligno11:15L. Slaggert10:28R. Donato11:33
Line 3A. Burakovsky12:28O. Moore13:46C. Bedard13:06
Pair 1A. Vlasic18:16L. Crevier18:20
Pair 2C. Murphy16:18M. Grzelcyk16:34
Pair 3A. Levshunov16:33W. Kaiser16:18
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.1, CHI 2.9 | FLA 5, CHI 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 28.6, CHI 24.3 | FLA 25, CHI 22 |
| Win chance | FLA 54% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.3 | 4 | 0.89 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.9 | 2 | 1.03 | 1 | 40% | 1 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.8 | 1 | 1.04 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.6 | 3 | 0.98 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.6 | 1 | 0.87 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.4 | 0 | 0.67 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.4 | 2 | 0.76 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.1 | 4 | 0.45 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 2.0 | 5 | 0.72 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.8 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.8 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CHI A. Burakovsky | 1.7 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 1.6 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 1.5 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CHI R. Greene | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI N. Lardis | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI O. Moore | 1.1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.1 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI M. Grzelcyk | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 0.8 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA S. Vilmanis | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.6 | 2 | 0.07 | 2 | 1% | 2 |
| FLA C. Schwindt | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.