Game Recap: FLA 2, COL 6, December 11, 2025

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Game Recap

FLA2

FinalThu, Dec 11, 2025Every game that night

COL6

COL beat FLA 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.85 expected goals to 1.71. COL outshot FLA 42 to 25. N. MacKinnon led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. MacKinnon had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 4.3. M. Blackwood stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	1	0	1	2
COL	2	3	1	6

1st 1:14COLS. Malinski0.05 xG
1st 7:21FLAN. Gregor0.14 xG
1st 18:30COLB. Nelson0.52 xG
2nd 5:05COLG. Brindley0.17 xG
2nd 7:18COLN. MacKinnon0.02 xG
2nd 12:31COLA. Lehkonen0.11 xG
3rd 6:18COLG. Landeskog0.65 xG
3rd 13:08FLAM. Samoskevich0.22 xG

Team Stats

FLACOL

25Shots on goal42

1.71Expected goals4.85

53Shot attempts72

215v5 shots on goal40

0/2Power play0/3

28Hits11

13Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways20

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 1.71 xGCOL 4.85 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA25 on goal, 2 scored

COL42 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Rodrigues	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	15:54	2:17
M. Samoskevich	RW	1	0	1	2	3	1	+1	2	13:59	1:52
N. Gregor	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	-1	0	12:07	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	11:18	0:00
B. Marchand	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:21	2:19
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	17:10	2:06
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	16:31	1:46
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-3	0	15:33	1:28
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	15:17	1:45
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	15:00	1:44
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	0	14:32	0:10
J. Studnicka	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	13:03	0:11
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	22:03	2:19
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-3	0	20:44	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-3	0	20:01	1:30
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	2	19:19	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:54	0:11
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:18	0:22

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	42	36	6	.857	59:56	Loss
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	1	2	7	1	0	+2	0	19:34	4:05
M. Necas	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	0	17:14	3:20
G. Brindley	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	2	16:06	1:32
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	20:12	2:47
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	+2	0	18:02	3:11
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	16:48	2:18
G. Landeskog	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:52	4:08
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:07	0:08
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	13:52	0:21
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:25	0:08
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	10:13	1:26
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:58	0:00
S. Malinski	D	1	1	2	3	1	2	+2	0	17:53	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	2	2	1	3	0	+1	2	17:04	0:08
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	22:27	4:46
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	0	0	21:08	1:22
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	18:57	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	4	0	3	+2	0	17:08	0:20

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	25	23	2	.920	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe14:45S. Bennett13:39B. Marchand12:38

Line 2S. Reinhart12:22A. Lundell12:43E. Luostarinen12:53

Line 3J. Boqvist13:43J. Studnicka11:16N. Gregor10:38

Line 4E. Rodrigues12:30M. Samoskevich12:03A. Greer10:41

Pair 1S. Jones17:26N. Mikkola17:44

Pair 2J. Petry17:14U. Balinskis15:06

Pair 3G. Forsling17:06A. Ekblad15:13

COL

Line 1A. Lehkonen14:37N. MacKinnon15:25G. Brindley14:30

Line 2P. Kelly11:35J. Drury14:02J. Kiviranta2:53

Line 3B. Nelson16:21G. Landeskog11:44V. Nichushkin12:48

Line 4V. Olofsson8:47R. Colton13:10M. Necas13:54

Pair 1D. Toews17:09C. Makar16:41

Pair 2B. Burns15:43J. Manson16:05

Pair 3S. Malinski16:18S. Girard17:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 2.6, COL 3.5	FLA 2, COL 6
Total goals	6.1	8
Shots on goal	FLA 26.8, COL 32.1	FLA 25, COL 42
Win chance	COL 65%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.3	7	1.50	2	42%	1
COL C. Makar	3.3	1	1.25	1	25%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.8	0	0.64	0	27%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.6	0	0.77	0	28%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.6	1	0.81	0	35%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	3	0.68	0	27%	0
COL M. Necas	2.5	1	1.07	2	31%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.4	5	0.83	1	33%	1
COL G. Landeskog	2.3	2	0.80	1	30%	1
FLA A. Lundell	2.2	2	0.57	0	19%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.1	3	0.64	1	29%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.0	3	0.73	1	31%	1
COL R. Colton	2.0	2	0.46	0	20%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.9	2	0.34	1	13%	1
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.9	3	0.41	1	16%	0
COL B. Burns	1.9	4	0.40	1	8%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.8	3	0.34	2	6%	1
COL D. Toews	1.7	3	0.56	1	10%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.7	1	0.41	1	10%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.6	2	0.40	0	18%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.6	2	0.43	0	14%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	1	0.31	2	7%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.5	0	0.31	0	7%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.4	3	0.34	0	7%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.4	0	0.28	1	12%	0
COL J. Drury	1.3	0	0.32	0	12%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	1	0.25	0	11%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.1	3	0.34	2	14%	1
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	1	0.18	0	4%	0
COL S. Girard	1.0	1	0.27	1	4%	0
FLA J. Studnicka	0.9	2	0.09	0	5%	0
FLA N. Gregor	0.9	3	0.11	1	6%	1
FLA J. Boqvist	0.9	0	0.22	0	11%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	0.9	1	0.16	0	4%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.7	1	0.16	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.