Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
FLA1
DET4
DET beat FLA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.77 expected goals to 2.26. M. Appleton led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Talbot stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| DET | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
- 2nd 2:09DETM. Appleton0.25 xG
- 2nd 9:36DETP. KanePP0.16 xG
- 2nd 14:05FLAB. Marchand0.04 xG
- 3rd 18:02DETM. AppletonEN0.86 xG
- 3rd 19:42DETM. RasmussenEN0.84 xG
Team Stats
FLADET
21Shots on goal25
2.26Expected goals4.77
63Shot attempts54
185v5 shots on goal20
0/2Power play1/3
32Hits15
9Blocked shots21
6Penalty minutes4
15Giveaways23
2Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.26 xGDET 4.77 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:08 | 0:59 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:56 | 2:39 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:16 | 2:40 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 | 1:00 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:58 | 1:01 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 2:38 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 | 1:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:23 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 25:31 | 2:47 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 23:53 | 2:26 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:25 | 0:13 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:57 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12:14 | 0:52 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 57:43 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:56 | 3:03 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:20 | 3:14 |
| M. Appleton | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| P. Kane | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:54 | 3:00 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 | 1:45 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:06 | 1:53 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:52 | 1:47 |
| M. Brandsegg-Nygård | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 1:38 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 3:06 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 25:30 | 3:06 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 23:49 | 0:03 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21:43 | 0:03 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 19:48 | 1:59 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
Line 1C. Verhaeghe14:33E. Rodrigues14:48S. Reinhart15:10
Line 2E. Luostarinen13:29A. Lundell12:51J. Boqvist12:20
Line 3S. Bennett13:06M. Samoskevich12:40B. Marchand11:28
Line 4L. Kunin8:56J. Gadjovich8:47A. Greer8:23
Pair 1S. Jones19:38N. Mikkola18:52
Pair 2G. Forsling18:03A. Ekblad17:44
Pair 3J. Petry11:22U. Balinskis11:50
DET
Line 1D. Larkin14:54E. Finnie13:52M. Appleton13:11
Line 2A. DeBrincat13:18M. Kasper13:24P. Kane12:54
Line 3J. Compher11:55A. Copp11:37M. Brandsegg-Nygård12:46
Line 4M. Rasmussen9:37E. Soderblom9:15J. Riemsdyk9:25
Pair 1B. Chiarot20:04M. Seider19:18
Pair 2S. Edvinsson18:55A. Sandin-Pellikka16:23
Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker10:29A. Johansson12:43
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.2, DET 2.9 | FLA 1, DET 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 28.1, DET 26.6 | FLA 21, DET 25 |
| Win chance | FLA 55% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.0 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.8 | 2 | 0.98 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.8 | 3 | 0.73 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.5 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.5 | 2 | 0.78 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.4 | 4 | 0.81 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.2 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.0 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.0 | 0 | 0.50 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 2.0 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.9 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.9 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.8 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.8 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.7 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.2 | 3 | 0.28 | 2 | 11% | 2 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.0 | 3 | 0.26 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.