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Game Recap
FLA3
DET1
FLA beat DET 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.29 expected goals to 4.93. M. Tkachuk scored three for FLA. S. Bobrovsky stopped 28 of 29.
Team Stats
FLADET
23Shots on goal29
2.29Expected goals4.93
45Shot attempts69
155v5 shots on goal22
1/3Power play1/4
29Hits11
17Blocked shots10
6Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways12
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.29 xGDET 4.93 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:35 | 3:49 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 | 3:53 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:19 | 1:41 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:53 | 3:50 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:31 | 1:45 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:30 | 1:44 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:45 | 3:48 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:00 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:44 | 1:38 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:35 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 25:37 | 3:46 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 23:04 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:54 | 0:22 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 1:30 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:04 |
| D. Sebrango | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:17 | 3:29 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 20:32 | 2:59 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:28 | 2:46 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:31 | 4:10 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 | 2:26 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:20 | 3:26 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 1:02 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:05 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:15 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:15 | 2:11 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:43 | 0:00 |
| D. Shine | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:37 | 4:22 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:28 | 0:14 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:01 | 2:18 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17:10 | 0:00 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 3:02 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
Line 1A. Lundell15:44E. Rodrigues15:51S. Reinhart14:44
Line 2S. Bennett13:18M. Tkachuk14:07C. Verhaeghe14:07
Line 3A. Greer9:43E. Luostarinen8:51B. Marchand8:03
Line 4T. Nosek8:04J. Boqvist7:27M. Samoskevich7:42
Pair 1A. Ekblad16:41G. Forsling18:28
Pair 2N. Mikkola19:51U. Balinskis15:21
Pair 3D. Kulikov12:03D. Sebrango10:00
DET
Line 1P. Kane16:03A. DeBrincat16:11A. Copp15:01
Line 2L. Raymond15:40J. Compher12:30D. Larkin11:34
Line 3M. Kasper13:03E. Finnie12:29M. Appleton10:21
Line 4J. Riemsdyk5:34M. Rasmussen5:08D. Shine4:27
Pair 1M. Seider17:09S. Edvinsson18:28
Pair 2B. Chiarot15:38J. Bernard-Docker14:25
Pair 3A. Johansson14:55A. Sandin-Pellikka11:29
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.9, DET 3.2 | FLA 3, DET 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 27.3, DET 27.2 | FLA 23, DET 29 |
| Win chance | DET 55% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.1 | 3 | 0.97 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.8 | 4 | 0.93 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.8 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.7 | 4 | 0.95 | 3 | 30% | 3 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 1 | 0.91 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.3 | 3 | 0.84 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.2 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.1 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 4 | 0.99 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.1 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.0 | 1 | 0.68 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.0 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.8 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.7 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.6 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.5 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.4 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.1 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 0.8 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET D. Shine | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA D. Sebrango | 0.6 | 3 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.