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Game Recap
FLA4
FinalThu, Mar 19, 2026Every game that night
EDM0

FLA beat EDM 4-0, with the chances close: 3.06 expected goals to 2.49. S. Bennett led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). S. Bobrovsky stopped 21 of 21.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
FLA2114
EDM0000
  1. 1st 11:12FLAC. Reinhardt0.23 xG
  2. 1st 19:02FLAA. Greer0.10 xG
  3. 2nd 14:21FLAA. LundellPP0.65 xG
  4. 3rd 15:23FLAC. Verhaeghe0.13 xG

Team Stats

FLAEDM
23Shots on goal21
3.06Expected goals2.49
56Shot attempts46
195v5 shots on goal20
1/2Power play0/2
21Hits28
9Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes4
17Giveaways16
3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.06 xGEDM 2.49 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdFLA goal, 11:12FLA goal, 19:02FLA goal, 14:21FLA goal, 15:23

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA23 on goal, 4 scored
EDM21 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
E. RodriguesC022300+1017:441:51
S. BennettC022311+1216:261:51
C. VerhaegheC101400+1016:350:41
A. LundellC1012000016:251:51
A. GreerLW101221+1016:030:00
M. TkachukLW011210+1214:501:57
C. ReinhardtLW101110+1011:410:00
E. LuostarinenC0000110016:200:35
J. BoqvistC0001000015:460:41
T. NosekLW000051+1012:530:00
M. SamoskevichRW000021+1012:100:40
L. KuninC000130+1011:240:00
M. BenningD022010+2015:430:00
S. JonesD0000110024:342:00
N. MikkolaD0000210022:310:01
G. ForslingD000101+1020:330:00
A. EkbladD000200+1018:130:32
D. KulikovD000111+2016:090:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Bobrovsky212101.00060:00Win
D. Tarasov000–0:00

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC000100-1021:293:31
M. SavoieC000400-1018:052:18
K. KapanenRW000200-1017:371:31
V. PodkolzinRW0002200217:230:56
Z. HymanLW000110-2016:483:04
R. Nugent-HopkinsC000011-1015:332:29
J. RoslovicC000210-1015:161:41
J. DickinsonC000110-2014:400:01
A. HenriqueC0000210012:300:00
M. JonesLW0000810011:240:00
J. SamanskiC0000100010:570:00
T. FredericC000120009:030:00
E. BouchardD000310-2027:073:19
M. EkholmD000230-1021:060:29
C. MurphyD000023-1019:410:00
D. NurseD000033-1019:160:00
J. WalmanD000201-1016:100:41
S. StastneyD0000040213:230:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Ingram23194.82660:00Loss
T. Jarry000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe15:54S. Bennett14:35M. Tkachuk12:53
Line 2A. Lundell12:38E. Luostarinen14:07J. Boqvist14:20
Line 3A. Greer15:19E. Rodrigues14:15M. Samoskevich11:30
Line 4L. Kunin11:22C. Reinhardt11:41T. Nosek11:39
Pair 1S. Jones20:05N. Mikkola20:04
Pair 2G. Forsling19:03A. Ekblad16:09
Pair 3D. Kulikov16:06M. Benning15:40

EDM

Line 1C. McDavid17:53M. Savoie15:07V. Podkolzin16:27
Line 2Z. Hyman13:44R. Nugent-Hopkins11:48J. Roslovic13:35
Line 3J. Samanski10:21J. Dickinson14:03K. Kapanen15:24
Line 4A. Henrique11:21M. Jones11:24T. Frederic9:03
Pair 1M. Ekholm19:53E. Bouchard22:30
Pair 2D. Nurse18:07C. Murphy17:53
Pair 3J. Walman15:24S. Stastney13:23

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreFLA 3.0, EDM 3.4FLA 4, EDM 0
Total goals6.54
Shots on goalFLA 26.7, EDM 29.3FLA 23, EDM 21
Win chanceEDM 57%FLA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid3.311.67038%0
EDM Z. Hyman2.910.93040%0
EDM E. Bouchard2.931.11019%0
FLA S. Bennett2.730.80230%0
FLA M. Tkachuk2.621.04131%0
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.240.69126%1
FLA E. Rodrigues2.230.48218%0
FLA M. Samoskevich2.100.43015%0
FLA A. Lundell2.120.68122%1
EDM D. Nurse1.900.3609%0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins1.800.83024%0
EDM J. Walman1.720.41011%0
EDM J. Roslovic1.720.51020%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.720.5309%0
EDM M. Savoie1.540.48016%0
EDM K. Kapanen1.520.42015%0
EDM V. Podkolzin1.520.43016%0
FLA S. Jones1.400.4109%0
FLA A. Ekblad1.420.54011%0
FLA A. Greer1.420.33114%1
FLA G. Forsling1.310.3409%0
FLA E. Luostarinen1.300.40013%0
EDM C. Murphy1.100.2506%0
EDM J. Dickinson1.110.33015%0
EDM A. Henrique1.000.25012%0
FLA L. Kunin0.910.1609%0
FLA T. Nosek0.900.2106%0
FLA N. Mikkola0.900.2005%0
FLA C. Reinhardt0.910.1919%1
EDM M. Jones0.900.1908%0
FLA J. Boqvist0.810.25011%0
EDM T. Frederic0.810.19010%0
EDM S. Stastney0.800.1704%0
FLA D. Kulikov0.810.2005%0
EDM J. Samanski0.400.2309%0

Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.