Game Recap: FLA 5, LAK 2, November 6, 2025

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Game Recap

FLA5

FinalThu, Nov 6, 2025Every game that night

LAK2

FLA beat LAK 5-2, with the chances close: 2.47 expected goals to 1.98. B. Marchand led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). E. Rodrigues had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. S. Bobrovsky stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	2	1	2	5
LAK	2	0	0	2

1st 2:06FLAS. Bennett0.31 xG
1st 9:23LAKA. KopitarPP0.09 xG
1st 11:00LAKC. Perry0.12 xG
1st 17:30FLAB. Marchand0.08 xG
2nd 11:45FLAS. Reinhart0.17 xG
3rd 8:41FLAA. LundellSH0.17 xG
3rd 12:36FLAB. Marchand0.15 xG

Team Stats

FLALAK

24Shots on goal26

2.47Expected goals1.98

50Shot attempts50

195v5 shots on goal19

0/2Power play1/4

24Hits16

14Blocked shots16

13Penalty minutes9

10Giveaways13

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 2.47 xGLAK 1.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA23 on goal, 5 scored

LAK25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Marchand	LW	2	0	2	3	1	1	+1	2	15:08	2:28
S. Reinhart	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	21:02	2:43
A. Lundell	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+2	0	17:59	2:19
E. Luostarinen	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+2	0	16:28	1:14
S. Bennett	C	1	0	1	2	4	0	+1	2	16:19	1:41
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	2	15:51	1:30
J. Boqvist	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	12:41	0:00
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	5	1	1	+1	0	18:22	1:17
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	16:18	2:30
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:06	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	7	9:16	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:24	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	2	2	0	1	0	+3	0	19:26	0:18
A. Ekblad	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	22:31	1:38
J. Petry	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	15:50	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	24:02	0:18
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+3	0	21:01	2:04
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	13:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	26	24	2	.923	60:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	19:27	4:04
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	5	17:35	4:18
A. Kopitar	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	16:38	4:00
A. Kempe	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	-2	0	16:27	4:17
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:28	4:16
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	15:41	0:19
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	15:19	2:21
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-3	2	14:45	2:37
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:07	2:01
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	13:13	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:19	0:00
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	9:19	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	18:12	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	1	1	1	3	3	+1	0	17:36	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-2	0	20:01	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-3	0	19:01	2:35
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	0	18:29	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	18:23	2:22

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	24	19	5	.792	60:00	Loss
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe14:21E. Rodrigues14:23S. Reinhart15:16

Line 2S. Bennett14:37J. Boqvist12:41M. Samoskevich13:46

Line 3E. Luostarinen11:57A. Lundell12:49B. Marchand12:18

Line 4A. Greer9:16C. Schwindt9:08N. Gregor7:24

Pair 1A. Ekblad17:08G. Forsling19:30

Pair 2S. Jones16:34N. Mikkola16:17

Pair 3J. Petry15:48D. Sebrango13:37

LAK

Line 1K. Fiala15:08Q. Byfield13:19A. Laferriere10:17

Line 2T. Moore13:50P. Danault12:08A. Kuzmenko12:58

Line 3A. Kopitar11:43A. Kempe11:13J. Armia12:34

Line 4C. Perry13:17A. Turcotte12:19J. Malott9:19

Pair 1B. Dumoulin18:31C. Ceci17:02

Pair 2D. Doughty16:08M. Anderson15:38

Pair 3B. Clarke16:01J. Edmundson15:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdaySam Reinhart FLA Turns 30 that day1 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 2.9, LAK 2.9	FLA 5, LAK 2
Total goals	5.7	7
Shots on goal	FLA 27.5, LAK 27.2	FLA 24, LAK 26
Win chance	LAK 51%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Reinhart	2.8	1	0.92	1	37%	1
LAK A. Kempe	2.8	2	0.90	1	34%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.8	1	0.77	0	30%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	3	0.66	1	26%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.5	3	0.79	2	28%	2
FLA S. Bennett	2.4	2	0.57	1	24%	1
FLA A. Lundell	2.2	1	0.66	1	20%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	2.2	1	0.47	0	19%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	1	0.70	1	22%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.0	1	0.47	0	16%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.9	5	0.44	0	16%	0
LAK T. Moore	1.9	3	0.46	0	20%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.8	2	0.38	0	7%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.7	1	0.41	1	9%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.7	0	0.32	0	9%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.7	1	0.43	0	10%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.7	2	0.47	1	22%	1
LAK D. Doughty	1.5	3	0.46	0	10%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.4	1	0.60	0	24%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.4	2	0.42	1	14%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.4	0	0.50	0	16%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.3	3	0.75	1	22%	1
LAK J. Armia	1.2	1	0.34	0	14%	0
FLA N. Gregor	1.1	1	0.15	0	8%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	1	0.19	1	4%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	0	0.17	2	4%	0
LAK C. Ceci	1.0	0	0.20	0	3%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.9	2	0.21	0	3%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.9	1	0.23	1	11%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.9	0	0.20	0	9%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	1	0.21	1	4%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	0.8	2	0.23	0	8%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.8	0	0.20	1	3%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.7	0	0.16	0	6%	0
FLA D. Sebrango	0.7	2	0.10	0	3%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.7	0	0.11	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.