Game Recap: FLA 2, LAK 1, October 6, 2026

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Game Recap

FLA2

FinalTue, Oct 6, 2026Every game that night

LAK1

FLA beat LAK 2-1, with the chances close: 2.53 expected goals to 2.13. FLA outshot LAK 28 to 20. J. Markstrom stopped 19 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	0	1	1	2
LAK	1	0	0	1

1st 19:00LAKA. Laferriere0.12 xG
2nd 3:49FLAS. Jones0.13 xG
3rd 11:20FLAM. Tkachuk0.08 xG

Team Stats

FLALAK

28Shots on goal20

2.53Expected goals2.13

64Shot attempts47

185v5 shots on goal10

0/6Power play0/5

33Hits13

14Blocked shots17

15Penalty minutes17

15Giveaways27

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 2.53 xGLAK 2.13 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA29 on goal, 2 scored

LAK20 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	2	5	0	+1	0	21:25	7:00
S. Bennett	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	19:29	5:46
L. Eller	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	12:56	0:00
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	21:01	6:27
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	18:40	3:39
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	0	18:10	4:02
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	17:12	6:27
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	4	15:43	3:07
S. Vilmanis	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:49	1:53
B. Marchand	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	9:36	1:39
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	5	7:52	0:00
B. Imama	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	6:18	0:00
S. Jones	D	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	25:33	5:24
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+2	0	21:22	0:20
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	4	18:23	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	18:10	0:16
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:13	4:20
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	12:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	20	19	1	.950	60:00	Win
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Laferriere	RW	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	17:10	2:24
E. Haula	LW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	16:08	0:55
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	21:42	4:40
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	21:10	5:01
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	2	20:25	6:22
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:16	4:35
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	16:12	0:02
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	0	13:18	0:06
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:29	0:02
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	11:42	2:13
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	11:29	1:29
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	6	19:15	2:41
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:46	0:47
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	16:11	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	2	16:05	0:04
E. Gustafsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:59	2:08
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:29	0:06
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	5	13:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	28	26	2	.929	57:56	Loss
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe13:09M. Tkachuk12:34S. Bennett12:01

Line 2E. Luostarinen10:55A. Lundell12:06S. Vilmanis9:56

Line 3S. Reinhart11:10B. Tkachuk9:49B. Marchand7:02

Line 4L. Eller8:15B. Imama6:18G. Hathaway4:49

Pair 1S. Jones14:45N. Mikkola14:22

Pair 2D. Kulikov14:39G. Forsling13:56

Pair 3R. Gudas10:28U. Balinskis9:51

LAK

Line 1A. Kempe13:07Q. Byfield12:01A. Panarin11:59

Line 2A. Laferriere13:02M. Zuccarello10:06E. Haula10:52

Line 3S. Laughton9:42T. Moore12:44J. Armia8:07

Line 4C. Perry7:27A. Turcotte7:45

Pair 1E. Gustafsson11:54B. Clarke13:04

Pair 2C. Ceci11:14M. Anderson12:19

Pair 3D. Doughty10:51B. Dumoulin10:55

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 16 overs hit (44%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
LAK A. Kempe	3.5	+135	-155	3	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	3.5	+130	-145	2	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	2.5	+125	-148	3	Over
LAK A. Panarin	2.5	-110	-105	4	Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	+146	-165	2	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.5	-120	+104	2	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	2.5	+105	-132	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	2.5	+105	-130	1	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	+105	-130	3	Over
FLA A. Lundell	1.5	-115	+100	3	Over
LAK B. Clarke	1.5	+100	-115	0	Under
FLA B. Marchand	1.5	-180	+135	2	Over
LAK J. Armia	1.5	+125	-190	0	Under
LAK M. Zuccarello	1.5	-140	+115	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	1.5	-111	-115	2	Over
LAK T. Moore	1.5	-130	+115	2	Over

3 of 36 overs hit (8%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+180	-225	0	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+300	-390	1	Over
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+450	-600	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	+200	-270	0	Under
LAK A. Turcotte	0.5	+425	-800	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+675	-1600	0	Under
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.5	+1200	-10000	0	Under
FLA B. Imama	0.5	+1400	-3500	0	Under
FLA B. Marchand	0.5	+310	-370	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
LAK C. Ceci	0.5	+2200	-10000	0	Under
LAK C. Perry	0.5	+575	-1000	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+270	-360	0	Under
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+850	-2500	0	Under
FLA D. Kulikov	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
LAK E. Gustafsson	0.5	+1000	-3500	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+950	-2800	0	Under
FLA G. Hathaway	0.5	+1300	-1600	0	Under
LAK J. Armia	0.5	+725	-1000	0	Under
LAK J. Edmundson	0.5	+1650	-2800	0	Under
FLA L. Eller	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
LAK M. Anderson	0.5	+1900	-5000	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+220	-280	1	Over
LAK M. Zuccarello	0.5	+400	-550	0	Under
FLA N. Mikkola	0.5	+2000	-2800	0	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+220	-310	0	Under
FLA R. Gudas	0.5	+2800	-5000	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+240	-285	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+750	-1400	1	Over
LAK S. Laughton	0.5	+600	-900	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+175	-230	0	Under
FLA S. Vilmanis	0.5	+900	-2500	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+380	-550	0	Under
FLA U. Balinskis	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under

2 of 25 overs hit (8%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+158	-180	0	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+250	-300	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+260	-290	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	-115	-115	0	Under
LAK A. Turcotte	0.5	+270	-380	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+170	-225	0	Under
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.5	+370	-550	0	Under
FLA B. Marchand	0.5	+195	-235	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+225	-250	0	Under
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+225	-275	0	Under
FLA D. Kulikov	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+280	-400	1	Over
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+245	-340	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+260	-360	0	Under
LAK J. Armia	0.5	+400	-600	0	Under
LAK J. Edmundson	0.5	+390	-575	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+130	-140	0	Under
LAK M. Zuccarello	0.5	+150	-180	0	Under
FLA N. Mikkola	0.5	+650	-1100	0	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+165	-190	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+175	-225	1	Over
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+145	-180	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+150	-165	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+390	-500	0	Under

5 of 26 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	-145	+130	0	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+120	-145	1	Over
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+135	-160	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	-200	+165	0	Under
LAK A. Turcotte	0.5	+155	-205	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.5	+295	-425	0	Under
FLA B. Marchand	0.5	+105	-125	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	-140	+115	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+110	-120	0	Under
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+170	-200	0	Under
FLA D. Kulikov	0.5	+475	-750	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+170	-240	1	Over
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+150	-200	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+195	-265	0	Under
LAK J. Armia	0.5	+240	-340	0	Under
LAK J. Edmundson	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	-160	+135	1	Over
LAK M. Zuccarello	0.5	-111	-111	0	Under
FLA N. Mikkola	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	-120	+105	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	-110	-105	1	Over
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+110	-132	1	Over
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	-165	+135	0	Under
FLA S. Vilmanis	0.5	+330	–	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+185	-235	0	Under

0 of 18 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+270	-300	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+400	-1100	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	+220	-250	Under
LAK A. Turcotte	0.5	+380	-2500	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+235	-400	Under
FLA B. Marchand	0.5	+340	-500	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+280	-300	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+450	-650	Under
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+210	-250	Under
LAK M. Zuccarello	0.5	+270	-375	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+300	-500	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+340	-375	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+325	-290	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+250	-290	Under
FLA U. Balinskis	0.5	+500	-1600	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
LAK D. Kuemper	24.5	+100	-118	26	Over
FLA J. Markstrom	22.5	-105	-105	19	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 2.9, LAK 3.0	FLA 2, LAK 1
Total goals	5.9	3
Shots on goal	FLA 26.0, LAK 28.0	FLA 28, LAK 20
Win chance	LAK 53%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA B. Tkachuk	3.5	2	0.82	0	29%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.8	1	0.77	1	29%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.7	2	1.09	1	32%	1
LAK A. Kempe	2.6	3	0.94	0	35%	0
LAK A. Panarin	2.6	4	1.16	0	34%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.5	3	0.62	1	22%	1
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	3	0.91	0	36%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	2	0.76	0	28%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.4	0	0.72	0	26%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.3	2	0.58	0	23%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.0	3	0.63	0	20%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.9	0	0.50	0	9%	0
LAK M. Zuccarello	1.9	0	0.85	0	22%	0
FLA B. Marchand	1.9	2	0.65	0	23%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.8	2	0.54	1	12%	1
LAK S. Laughton	1.6	2	0.36	0	16%	0
LAK E. Haula	1.5	3	0.43	1	17%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.4	2	0.34	0	8%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.4	0	0.45	0	10%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.3	2	0.42	0	14%	0
LAK E. Gustafsson	1.2	0	0.38	0	6%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.2	0	0.32	0	14%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	2	0.23	0	4%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.2	1	0.24	0	6%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	1	0.20	0	5%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.1	0	0.30	0	9%	0
FLA S. Vilmanis	1.1	1	0.26	0	12%	0
FLA L. Eller	1.0	0	0.23	1	9%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.0	0	0.33	0	15%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.9	1	0.20	0	5%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	0	0.26	0	5%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.8	0	0.18	0	3%	0
FLA R. Gudas	0.7	1	0.15	0	2%	0
FLA G. Hathaway	0.7	0	0.16	0	8%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.7	1	0.21	0	4%	0
FLA B. Imama	0.5	1	0.09	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.