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Game Recap
FLA4
MIN3
FLA beat MIN 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.60 expected goals to 2.74. FLA outshot MIN 34 to 21. B. Marchand led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). K. Kaprizov had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. S. Bobrovsky stopped 18 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 6:44FLAS. Reinhart0.36 xG
- 1st 9:17MINK. KaprizovPP0.11 xG
- 1st 18:20FLAB. MarchandPP0.07 xG
- 2nd 4:33MINJ. Eriksson EkPP0.23 xG
- 3rd 12:09MINM. BoldySH0.24 xG
- 3rd 13:11FLAS. BennettPP0.21 xG
- OT 3:00FLAB. Marchand0.21 xG
Team Stats
FLAMIN
34Shots on goal21
3.60Expected goals2.74
57Shot attempts48
195v5 shots on goal12
2/6Power play2/6
17Hits17
15Blocked shots10
17Penalty minutes17
13Giveaways19
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.60 xGMIN 2.74 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Marchand | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:12 | 8:16 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:22 | 9:14 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:06 | 9:24 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:46 | 2:09 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:11 | 8:57 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:35 | 1:17 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:35 | 1:52 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:36 | 1:20 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9:03 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:02 | 0:00 |
| S. Vilmanis | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:57 | 0:02 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 27:16 | 1:58 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:07 | 8:41 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 63:00 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 25:32 | 8:52 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:55 | 9:13 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:46 | 8:53 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:14 | 6:40 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:50 | 1:09 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:51 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 3:27 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:45 | 0:00 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:51 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:18 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 31:16 | 9:19 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27:44 | 0:43 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:47 | 1:10 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 7 | 17:35 | 0:03 |
| D. Hunt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:00 |
| D.Jiricek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 34 | 30 | 4 | .882 | 62:22 | OT loss |
| J. Wallstedt | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
Line 1C. Verhaeghe13:03S. Reinhart10:59E. Rodrigues10:23
Line 2S. Bennett11:00M. Tkachuk9:50A. Greer9:03
Line 3E. Luostarinen10:55A. Lundell12:12B. Marchand9:16
Line 4L. Kunin6:01S. Vilmanis4:46M. Samoskevich8:38
Pair 1N. Mikkola17:17U. Balinskis14:20
Pair 2G. Forsling15:39A. Ekblad13:11
Pair 3J. Petry10:07T. Bjornfot6:40
MIN
Line 1R. Hartman16:03K. Kaprizov14:03M. Zuccarello13:15
Line 2D. Yurov11:09M. Foligno10:04V. Tarasenko10:43
Line 3M. Johansson12:07M. Boldy7:56J. Ek7:31
Line 4N. Sturm4:48V. Hinostroza4:18Y. Trenin4:42
Pair 2J. Spurgeon13:11J. Middleton11:31
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.1, MIN 3.2 | FLA 4, MIN 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 29.2, MIN 28.0 | FLA 34, MIN 21 |
| Win chance | MIN 52% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.4 | 7 | 1.32 | 2 | 45% | 1 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.0 | 4 | 0.81 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| MIN Q. Hughes | 2.8 | 1 | 1.18 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.8 | 3 | 0.96 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.7 | 3 | 0.94 | 2 | 37% | 1 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.6 | 4 | 0.96 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.5 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.5 | 6 | 0.81 | 3 | 29% | 2 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.4 | 2 | 0.78 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.4 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.4 | 5 | 0.69 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.1 | 1 | 0.94 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.1 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 2.0 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.9 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.8 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.8 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.5 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.5 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA S. Vilmanis | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN N. Sturm | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.7 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| MIN D.Jiricek | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MIN D. Hunt | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.