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Game Recap
FLA2
MTL6
MTL beat FLA 6-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.35 expected goals to 3.86. FLA outshot MTL 27 to 19. A. Texier scored three for MTL. A. Texier had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. S. Montembeault stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| MTL | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
- 1st 2:59MTLN. Dobson0.03 xG
- 1st 17:35MTLO. Kapanen0.09 xG
- 2nd 5:33FLAS. Bennett0.01 xG
- 2nd 13:41MTLA. Texier0.09 xG
- 3rd 7:26MTLA. Texier0.32 xG
- 3rd 11:23FLAS. Bennett0.09 xG
- 3rd 17:59MTLJ. SlafkovskýEN0.92 xG
- 3rd 19:10MTLA. Texier0.40 xG
Team Stats
FLAMTL
27Shots on goal19
3.86Expected goals3.35
63Shot attempts44
205v5 shots on goal12
0/3Power play0/4
18Hits18
11Blocked shots20
24Penalty minutes22
18Giveaways9
4Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.86 xGMTL 3.35 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bennett | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:16 | 4:04 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:30 | 3:52 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:16 | 4:07 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 19:55 | 1:54 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:36 | 1:53 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:12 | 4:09 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 2:08 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Studnicka | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 6:30 | 0:00 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 5:53 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:11 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:46 | 1:52 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:32 | 3:37 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 18:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 16:58 | 2:13 |
| D. Sebrango | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 16 | 11:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 19 | 14 | 5 | .737 | 58:49 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Kapanen | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 17:19 | 2:39 |
| A. Texier | LW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:15 | 2:49 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 4 | 18:51 | 5:19 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:51 | 5:12 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:40 | 0:00 |
| S. Blais | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 7:36 | 0:00 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:40 | 0:03 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:27 | 5:01 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:36 | 4:58 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:25 | 2:56 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:28 | 2:16 |
| O. Beck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:50 | 0:33 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:07 | 5:05 |
| N. Dobson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:43 | 3:09 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 21:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 9:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +2 | 12 | 8:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
Line 1S. Reinhart15:28A. Lundell14:44E. Luostarinen14:17
Line 2C. Verhaeghe11:58S. Bennett11:44A. Greer11:19
Line 3J. Boqvist10:08E. Rodrigues9:56M. Samoskevich8:58
Line 4J. Studnicka6:30L. Kunin7:31N. Gregor5:53
Pair 1U. Balinskis17:17N. Mikkola16:28
Pair 2G. Forsling16:17A. Ekblad12:44
Pair 3J. Petry11:45D. Sebrango11:08
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki12:44A. Texier13:17C. Caufield10:57
Line 2J. Slafkovský12:20O. Kapanen10:58I. Demidov10:02
Line 3B. Gallagher11:37P. Danault14:06Z. Bolduc10:12
Pair 1M. Matheson17:40N. Dobson15:53
Pair 2A. Carrier17:11L. Hutson16:37
Pair 3J. Struble9:39A. Xhekaj8:37
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.2, MTL 2.8 | FLA 2, MTL 6 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 27.8, MTL 25.1 | FLA 27, MTL 19 |
| Win chance | FLA 56% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.1 | 4 | 0.89 | 2 | 34% | 2 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.9 | 2 | 1.12 | 0 | 43% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.7 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.4 | 5 | 0.75 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.4 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.3 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.2 | 4 | 0.59 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.0 | 5 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 1 | 0.88 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.9 | 0 | 0.65 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.8 | 1 | 0.48 | 3 | 21% | 1 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.7 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.6 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.6 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.90 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.77 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.4 | 6 | 0.40 | 3 | 16% | 3 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 1.0 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA N. Gregor | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL O. Beck | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.8 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.7 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA J. Studnicka | 0.7 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL S. Blais | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.5 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| FLA D. Sebrango | 0.5 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.