Game Recap: FLA 3, MTL 4 (SO), April 7, 2026

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Game Recap

FLA3

Final/SOTue, Apr 7, 2026Every game that night

MTL4

MTL beat FLA 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.96 expected goals to 3.80. J. Slafkovský led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). M. Samoskevich had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Dobes stopped 30 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
FLA	1	1	1	0	3
MTL	0	1	2	1	4

1st 9:23FLAC. Verhaeghe0.05 xG
2nd 0:54MTLI. DemidovPP0.05 xG
2nd 13:43FLAC. Reinhardt0.08 xG
3rd 6:22MTLP. Danault0.05 xG
3rd 7:49FLAE. Luostarinen0.08 xG
3rd 19:39MTLN. Suzuki0.24 xG

Team Stats

FLAMTL

33Shots on goal32

3.80Expected goals3.96

56Shot attempts68

205v5 shots on goal18

0/2Power play1/4

29Hits26

18Blocked shots11

8Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways13

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.80 xGMTL 3.96 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA33 on goal, 3 scored

MTL32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	21:54	3:45
E. Luostarinen	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	0	20:23	2:42
J. Boqvist	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:29	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	11:00	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	9:59	0:00
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	20:48	3:45
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	20:04	3:45
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	5	4	0	+1	0	15:42	1:03
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	2	14:44	0:15
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	13:58	0:15
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:29	0:15
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:40	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	1	1	5	0	0	29:27	2:49
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	26:24	0:15
D. Sebrango	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	2	19:24	0:00
T. Bjornfot	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	2	16:44	0:00
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	15:53	0:15
M. Benning	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	15:29	0:56

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	32	29	3	.906	65:00	OT loss
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	2	2	5	2	0	0	0	19:36	5:00
I. Demidov	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	2	20:19	4:54
N. Suzuki	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	19:27	4:55
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	19:09	5:40
P. Danault	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	14:10	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	17:15	0:00
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	16:18	1:29
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:37	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	15:06	1:23
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	13:51	0:41
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	13:19	0:00
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	11:26	1:18
N. Dobson	D	0	1	1	3	5	2	+1	0	25:52	0:53
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	25:44	3:43
A. Engstrom	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	15:50	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	0	0	22:49	0:11
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	17:02	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	11:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	33	30	3	.909	63:28	Win
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe15:33S. Bennett14:25M. Samoskevich14:42

Line 2E. Luostarinen13:14J. Boqvist13:03A. Greer12:53

Line 3T. Nosek11:55N. Gregor11:14C. Schwindt11:20

Line 4V. Hinostroza10:31L. Kunin10:51C. Reinhardt9:50

Pair 1D. Kulikov14:41G. Forsling18:30

Pair 2D. Sebrango18:29S. Jones20:11

Pair 3T. Bjornfot14:27M. Benning13:36

MTL

Line 1A. Texier13:56A. Newhook12:59I. Demidov13:30

Line 2Z. Bolduc13:33J. Evans12:48K. Dach12:57

Line 3P. Danault12:25J. Anderson12:05O. Kapanen9:59

Line 4N. Suzuki11:34J. Slafkovský12:24C. Caufield11:19

Pair 1M. Matheson19:54N. Dobson19:39

Pair 2J. Struble16:35L. Hutson17:42

Pair 3A. Engstrom15:34A. Xhekaj10:32

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.1, MTL 3.5	FLA 3, MTL 4
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	FLA 27.1, MTL 27.1	FLA 33, MTL 32
Win chance	MTL 57%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	2	0.99	1	37%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.7	4	0.81	0	31%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.6	3	0.83	1	31%	1
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.2	6	0.49	0	19%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.1	3	0.64	1	12%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.1	5	0.86	2	27%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	3	1.09	1	28%	1
FLA S. Jones	1.7	1	0.49	1	11%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.6	2	1.03	1	12%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.6	5	0.41	0	18%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.6	1	0.34	1	9%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.5	4	0.82	1	20%	1
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	4	0.47	0	9%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.4	2	0.43	1	15%	1
MTL O. Kapanen	1.4	1	0.46	0	20%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.4	1	0.42	0	16%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	0	0.45	0	18%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.3	0	0.43	0	18%	0
FLA N. Gregor	1.2	1	0.20	0	10%	0
FLA V. Hinostroza	1.2	0	0.29	0	12%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.2	1	0.31	0	16%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.0	2	0.28	1	13%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.0	0	0.34	0	13%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	0	0.41	0	14%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.0	3	0.37	1	13%	1
FLA L. Kunin	1.0	0	0.16	1	10%	0
FLA C. Reinhardt	0.9	2	0.20	1	10%	1
FLA D. Kulikov	0.9	1	0.17	0	4%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.9	0	0.22	0	6%	0
FLA D. Sebrango	0.8	1	0.14	1	3%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.8	2	0.22	0	9%	0
FLA M. Benning	0.7	2	0.23	0	3%	0
MTL A. Engstrom	0.7	1	0.09	1	3%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.6	1	0.09	0	3%	0
FLA T. Bjornfot	0.6	0	0.09	0	2%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.6	1	0.23	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.