Game Recap: FLA 8, NSH 3, November 24, 2025

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Game Recap

FLA8

FinalMon, Nov 24, 2025Every game that night

NSH3

FLA beat NSH 8-3, with the chances close: 2.98 expected goals to 2.78. NSH outshot FLA 39 to 26. A. Greer led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). R. Josi had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. D. Tarasov stopped 36 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	4	1	3	8
NSH	2	0	1	3

1st 0:11FLAA. Greer0.06 xG
1st 5:42FLAE. Rodrigues0.19 xG
1st 6:52NSHF. Forsberg0.07 xG
1st 10:32NSHF. Svechkov0.27 xG
1st 11:31FLAJ. Boqvist0.14 xG
1st 15:46FLAS. Bennett0.21 xG
2nd 1:24FLAG. Forsling0.09 xG
3rd 2:11NSHN. BlankenburgPP0.10 xG
3rd 4:52FLAA. Greer0.14 xG
3rd 8:33FLAS. Reinhart0.21 xG
3rd 12:49FLAC. Verhaeghe0.20 xG

Team Stats

FLANSH

26Shots on goal39

2.98Expected goals2.78

40Shot attempts67

215v5 shots on goal31

0/2Power play1/3

19Hits25

14Blocked shots5

8Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways13

10Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 2.98 xGNSH 2.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA25 on goal, 8 scored

NSH39 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	1	2	3	4	0	0	+1	0	17:21	1:57
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	2	3	2	2	0	+4	0	16:08	1:41
A. Greer	LW	2	1	3	3	1	0	+5	2	15:42	0:00
E. Rodrigues	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	18:54	2:03
S. Bennett	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+4	0	16:55	2:03
J. Boqvist	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	16:18	1:51
B. Marchand	LW	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	15:03	1:53
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	14:48	1:13
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	16:08	1:56
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	11:45	0:01
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:41	0:03
J. Devine	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	8:41	0:00
G. Forsling	D	1	1	2	1	0	0	+3	0	19:07	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	2	2	1	3	2	+2	0	16:19	1:05
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	22:28	1:38
A. Ekblad	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	+2	0	21:36	2:20
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+2	2	22:26	0:16
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	+2	4	15:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	39	36	3	.923	59:38	Win
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	2	20:11	2:55
E. Haula	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-3	0	17:46	2:56
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0	16:32	1:05
M. Bunting	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	-3	0	15:48	3:06
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	13:02	0:02
T. Jost	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	12:59	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	12:35	0:04
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:15	0:59
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	0	12:51	1:05
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-3	2	12:50	1:05
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	12:10	2:58
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-3	2	10:30	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	6	1	0	-2	0	23:01	2:10
N. Blankenburg	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	-2	0	19:35	1:55
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	-2	0	21:03	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-4	0	20:51	0:05
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	20:21	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	16	11	5	.688	21:24	Loss
J. Annunen	10	7	3	.700	38:36

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1E. Rodrigues15:13S. Reinhart13:24J. Boqvist13:24

Line 2C. Verhaeghe13:24A. Greer14:31S. Bennett13:49

Line 3B. Marchand12:36M. Samoskevich12:58A. Lundell12:32

Line 4L. Kunin9:52J. Devine8:41N. Gregor7:41

Pair 1S. Jones18:30N. Mikkola20:25

Pair 2A. Ekblad16:12G. Forsling15:57

Pair 3J. Petry14:54U. Balinskis13:42

NSH

Line 1L. Evangelista17:16F. Forsberg14:49R. O'Reilly15:28

Line 2S. Stamkos11:09E. Haula12:20M. Wood9:12

Line 3O. Wiesblatt11:49T. Jost12:34F. Svechkov11:14

Line 4J. Marchessault10:35M. McCarron9:37M. Bunting12:30

Pair 1R. Josi19:23N. Hague18:00

Pair 2B. Skjei17:10N. Perbix17:31

Pair 3N. Blankenburg14:52S. Stastney12:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.0, NSH 2.6	FLA 8, NSH 3
Total goals	5.7	11
Shots on goal	FLA 27.4, NSH 26.9	FLA 26, NSH 39
Win chance	FLA 57%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.0	4	0.85	1	34%	1
FLA S. Reinhart	2.7	4	0.98	3	38%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.6	6	0.74	1	16%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.5	2	0.93	1	31%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.4	2	0.63	1	25%	1
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.4	2	0.76	3	27%	1
FLA A. Lundell	2.3	1	0.81	0	23%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.3	1	0.67	0	29%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.3	4	0.53	1	18%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.1	3	0.54	2	18%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.0	2	0.71	0	31%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.0	3	0.48	1	17%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.8	3	0.43	0	10%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.7	1	0.64	0	24%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.7	1	0.44	0	18%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.7	1	0.52	1	13%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.7	4	0.53	1	21%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.6	0	0.49	1	11%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.6	1	0.40	2	11%	1
NSH E. Haula	1.5	0	0.39	1	17%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.5	3	0.36	1	8%	1
NSH N. Perbix	1.2	0	0.29	0	6%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.2	1	0.20	0	5%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	1	0.24	0	6%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.1	3	0.27	3	11%	2
NSH T. Jost	1.1	2	0.23	1	9%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.1	2	0.22	0	11%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.1	2	0.34	1	14%	1
FLA N. Gregor	1.1	0	0.17	0	8%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	0.9	1	0.21	2	5%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	0.9	1	0.17	1	9%	1
FLA L. Kunin	0.8	0	0.15	0	8%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.8	1	0.21	0	4%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.7	3	0.15	1	7%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.7	0	0.22	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.