Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
FLA4
NYI5
NYI beat FLA 5-4 despite fewer good chances: 2.00 expected goals to 4.09. M. Schaefer led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Mayfield had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. D. Rittich stopped 29 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| NYI | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 3:44FLAS. Vilmanis0.06 xG
- 1st 14:54FLAS. BennettPP0.09 xG
- 1st 18:01NYIM. Schaefer0.03 xG
- 2nd 7:28NYIC. Soucy0.17 xG
- 2nd 12:04FLAS. Bennett0.04 xG
- 2nd 17:14NYIB. Horvat0.03 xG
- 3rd 10:29NYIM. Schaefer0.10 xG
- 3rd 18:02FLAS. Reinhart0.04 xG
- 3rd 19:28NYIA. Lee0.16 xG
Team Stats
FLANYI
33Shots on goal26
4.09Expected goals2.00
78Shot attempts53
285v5 shots on goal25
1/3Power play0/1
23Hits25
13Blocked shots17
2Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways13
5Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 4.09 xGNYI 2.00 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:16 | 2:19 |
| S. Bennett | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:58 | 2:23 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:34 | 2:19 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:57 | 0:01 |
| S. Vilmanis | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 7:45 | 0:01 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:47 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:14 | 0:07 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:11 | 0:10 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:14 | 1:19 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:06 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 7:44 | 0:01 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:24 | 2:20 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 26:11 | 0:34 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:03 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:27 | 0:00 |
| D. Sebrango | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:29 | 0:03 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 26 | 21 | 5 | .808 | 59:06 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Horvat | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:24 | 0:24 |
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:45 | 0:24 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:24 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| A. Lee | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:00 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
| C. Ritchie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:20 | 0:24 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Schaefer | D | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 4 | +4 | 2 | 23:17 | 0:24 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:34 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 22:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Rittich | 33 | 29 | 4 | .879 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Sorokin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
Line 1C. Verhaeghe17:07E. Rodrigues17:01S. Reinhart17:02
Line 2S. Bennett15:45M. Tkachuk15:26M. Samoskevich15:37
Line 3E. Luostarinen14:56A. Lundell14:49B. Marchand13:25
Line 4J. Boqvist7:43S. Vilmanis7:44A. Greer7:56
Pair 1A. Ekblad22:13G. Forsling24:13
Pair 2D. Kulikov19:24N. Mikkola22:23
Pair 3J. Petry9:50D. Sebrango10:26
NYI
Line 2A. Lee14:31J. Pageau14:27S. Holmstrom13:24
Line 3E. Heineman14:24C. Ritchie12:52A. Duclair13:18
Line 4C. Cizikas10:52M. Gatcomb10:45K. MacLean10:47
Pair 1M. Schaefer22:53R. Pulock19:14
Pair 2A. Pelech18:05T. DeAngelo20:06
Pair 3S. Mayfield16:04C. Soucy13:21
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.1, NYI 2.7 | FLA 4, NYI 5 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 28.4, NYI 25.5 | FLA 33, NYI 26 |
| Win chance | FLA 55% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.9 | 3 | 0.80 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.8 | 3 | 0.97 | 3 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.8 | 4 | 0.74 | 2 | 30% | 2 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 4 | 0.93 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.4 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.3 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.2 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.2 | 5 | 0.67 | 3 | 18% | 2 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.2 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.1 | 1 | 0.52 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.1 | 5 | 0.86 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.0 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| NYI E. Heineman | 1.8 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.8 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.6 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.5 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.4 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 1.4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI O. Palat | 1.3 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.2 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.1 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI C. Soucy | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.8 | 4 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA S. Vilmanis | 0.8 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA D. Sebrango | 0.6 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.