Game Recap: FLA 2, NYI 5, March 28, 2026

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Game Recap

FLA2

FinalSat, Mar 28, 2026Every game that night

NYI5

NYI beat FLA 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.18 expected goals to 2.83. NYI outshot FLA 40 to 21. B. Schenn led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). B. Schenn had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. I. Sorokin stopped 19 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	2	0	0	2
NYI	0	5	0	5

1st 8:06FLAM. Tkachuk0.16 xG
1st 14:03FLAM. Tkachuk0.13 xG
2nd 5:28NYIM. Gatcomb0.02 xG
2nd 12:09NYIB. Schenn0.19 xG
2nd 14:52NYIS. HolmstromPP0.05 xG
2nd 17:00NYIE. Heineman0.08 xG
2nd 17:57NYIC. Cizikas0.05 xG

Team Stats

FLANYI

21Shots on goal40

2.83Expected goals4.18

59Shot attempts70

165v5 shots on goal37

0/1Power play1/3

21Hits13

10Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes2

17Giveaways17

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 2.83 xGNYI 4.18 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA20 on goal, 2 scored

NYI38 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Tkachuk	LW	2	0	2	4	1	0	+1	0	23:43	2:00
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	23:06	2:00
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	+1	0	21:11	2:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	16:51	2:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:50	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:47	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	12:49	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:29	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	11:27	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:12	0:00
N. Foote	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	10:56	0:00
J. Studnicka	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:32	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	25:21	2:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	24:07	2:00
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	0	2	21:25	0:00
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	20:18	0:00
M. Benning	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	0	14:30	0:00
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-3	2	14:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	40	35	5	.875	54:45	Loss
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Schenn	C	1	2	3	5	2	3	+1	0	19:22	3:10
M. Gatcomb	C	1	1	2	1	3	0	+2	0	9:44	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0	18:17	2:08
E. Heineman	LW	1	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	17:56	1:46
C. Ritchie	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	17:43	3:04
S. Holmstrom	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	15:33	2:16
C. Cizikas	C	1	0	1	4	2	1	+2	0	10:50	0:01
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	20:18	3:10
M. Barzal	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	17:52	2:56
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	14:25	2:01
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	10:47	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	9:47	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	2	2	5	1	1	+3	0	27:51	4:24
A. Pelech	D	0	1	1	4	1	1	+2	0	22:04	0:06
C. Soucy	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	2	20:15	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	11:54	0:05
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	4	0	4	-1	0	21:15	0:00
A. Boqvist	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:07	0:53

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	21	19	2	.905	60:00	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1M. Tkachuk18:05E. Luostarinen17:59C. Verhaeghe17:20

Line 2J. Boqvist11:58M. Samoskevich13:01N. Gregor11:07

Line 3V. Hinostroza10:46T. Nosek10:53C. Reinhardt11:12

Line 4L. Kunin9:03J. Studnicka7:32N. Foote9:33

Pair 1A. Ekblad16:36G. Forsling18:07

Pair 2D. Kulikov18:22S. Jones19:30

Pair 3M. Benning13:26D. Sebrango13:15

NYI

Line 1E. Heineman14:34A. Lee14:26B. Horvat14:24

Line 2B. Schenn14:52C. Ritchie13:20M. Barzal13:33

Line 3J. Pageau11:12S. Holmstrom11:56O. Palat10:47

Line 4C. Cizikas9:54K. MacLean9:47M. Gatcomb9:44

Pair 1R. Pulock18:25M. Schaefer20:59

Pair 2C. Soucy18:22A. Pelech19:13

Pair 3S. Mayfield11:03A. Boqvist11:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayOndrej Palat NYI Turns 35 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 2.7, NYI 2.9	FLA 2, NYI 5
Total goals	5.6	7
Shots on goal	FLA 26.7, NYI 28.3	FLA 21, NYI 40
Win chance	NYI 54%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.1	4	0.85	0	35%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.9	5	0.84	2	21%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.6	4	0.92	2	29%	2
NYI A. Lee	2.4	2	0.58	1	25%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.3	4	0.66	0	26%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.1	2	0.87	0	22%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.1	3	0.43	1	23%	1
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.0	1	0.36	0	14%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.6	0	0.43	1	9%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.6	4	0.30	1	4%	0
NYI B. Schenn	1.5	5	0.58	3	21%	1
FLA A. Ekblad	1.5	2	0.45	0	9%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.4	3	0.34	0	8%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.4	1	0.40	0	14%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.3	3	0.57	1	22%	1
NYI C. Ritchie	1.3	0	0.47	1	19%	0
FLA V. Hinostroza	1.3	0	0.30	0	12%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	4	0.36	0	6%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	0	0.50	0	17%	0
FLA N. Foote	1.1	2	0.27	0	14%	0
FLA L. Kunin	1.1	0	0.16	0	10%	0
FLA N. Gregor	1.1	2	0.16	0	8%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.0	1	0.28	0	13%	0
FLA C. Reinhardt	1.0	0	0.19	0	10%	0
FLA T. Nosek	1.0	0	0.21	0	6%	0
NYI C. Soucy	1.0	1	0.20	1	6%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	0.9	4	0.24	1	10%	1
NYI O. Palat	0.9	1	0.28	0	12%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.9	1	0.19	0	4%	0
NYI A. Boqvist	0.9	1	0.27	0	6%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.9	0	0.17	1	4%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	0.9	1	0.15	2	10%	1
FLA D. Sebrango	0.8	0	0.13	0	2%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	0	0.16	0	7%	0
FLA J. Studnicka	0.7	0	0.07	0	4%	0
FLA M. Benning	0.7	0	0.27	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.