Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
FLA1
NYR3
NYR beat FLA 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.45 expected goals to 3.06. A. Fox led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Laba had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. I. Shesterkin stopped 26 of 27.
Team Stats
FLANYR
27Shots on goal22
3.06Expected goals2.45
70Shot attempts45
215v5 shots on goal19
0/3Power play0/1
15Hits24
10Blocked shots21
7Penalty minutes11
9Giveaways15
4Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.06 xGNYR 2.45 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 3:17 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:51 | 1:34 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:52 | 4:14 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:03 | 4:17 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:23 | 3:20 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:00 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:10 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:50 | 2:39 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:29 | 2:34 |
| N. Foote | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:07 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9:41 | 0:00 |
| M. Benning | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:41 | 2:45 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:00 | 3:15 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:14 | 1:40 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:26 | 0:03 |
| D. Sebrango | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:42 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:59 | 0:05 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 58:34 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 | 1:46 |
| N. Laba | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| C. Sheary | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| A. Sykora | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 2:00 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:22 | 1:46 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:17 | 2:00 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:00 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| G. Perreault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:14 |
| J. Chmelar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:21 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 23:52 | 2:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:41 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 24:54 | 0:14 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18:49 | 0:00 |
| D. Fortescue | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 16:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Robertson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Garand | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
Line 1C. Verhaeghe14:12M. Tkachuk13:06E. Luostarinen12:23
Line 2A. Greer15:28M. Samoskevich13:00J. Boqvist14:05
Line 3V. Hinostroza12:11C. Reinhardt11:27L. Kunin9:41
Pair 1G. Forsling19:21A. Ekblad17:41
Pair 2S. Jones18:19D. Sebrango16:28
Pair 3D. Kulikov15:54M. Benning13:39
NYR
Line 1M. Zibanejad14:50G. Perreault13:21A. Lafrenière14:44
Line 2V. Trocheck13:51W. Cuylle12:54A. Sykora9:33
Line 4J. Brodzinski11:21N. Laba12:11J. Chmelar12:17
Pair 1V. Gavrikov20:02A. Fox20:41
Pair 2D. Fortescue16:50B. Schneider15:32
Pair 3W. Borgen14:22M. Robertson14:01
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.8, NYR 3.1 | FLA 1, NYR 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 27.6, NYR 26.2 | FLA 27, NYR 22 |
| Win chance | NYR 56% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.8 | 3 | 1.03 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.5 | 3 | 0.95 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.4 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.1 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.1 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.0 | 0 | 1.00 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 1.9 | 0 | 0.85 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.8 | 3 | 0.94 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.8 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.7 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.5 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.5 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR G. Perreault | 1.4 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.4 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR M. Robertson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA V. Hinostroza | 1.3 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR C. Sheary | 1.2 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NYR T. Kartye | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA N. Foote | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA N. Gregor | 1.2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA C. Reinhardt | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR N. Laba | 0.9 | 4 | 0.31 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA D. Sebrango | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYR J. Chmelar | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA M. Benning | 0.6 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.