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Game Recap
FLA2
SEA6
SEA beat FLA 6-2, with the chances close: 3.10 expected goals to 2.97. K. Kakko led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). K. Kakko had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Daccord stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| SEA | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 5:28SEAB. Meyers0.09 xG
- 1st 11:52SEAB. Catton0.34 xG
- 1st 12:07FLAV. Hinostroza0.12 xG
- 1st 18:24SEAR. Winterton0.15 xG
- 2nd 3:20SEAK. Kakko0.17 xG
- 3rd 10:07SEAB. McMannPP0.15 xG
- 3rd 14:37SEAJ. Oleksiak0.20 xG
- 3rd 19:58FLAE. Luostarinen0.03 xG
Team Stats
FLASEA
25Shots on goal25
2.97Expected goals3.10
67Shot attempts43
185v5 shots on goal18
0/4Power play1/4
26Hits17
9Blocked shots14
8Penalty minutes8
11Giveaways11
1Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.97 xGSEA 3.10 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:21 | 4:23 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 1:42 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:41 | 1:42 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:35 | 0:00 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:04 | 4:28 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:07 | 4:28 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:29 | 4:28 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:08 | 1:42 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:00 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:11 | 1:47 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:46 | 4:01 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:54 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Benning | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:24 | 1:50 |
| D. Sebrango | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:32 | 0:19 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 25 | 19 | 6 | .760 | 59:54 | Loss |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kakko | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:47 | 2:54 |
| B. McMann | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:36 | 2:58 |
| B. Meyers | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:00 |
| R. Winterton | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| B. Catton | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:51 | 0:00 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:47 | 3:04 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:20 | 3:08 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:37 | 3:08 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:13 | 3:08 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 3:08 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 3:04 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 23:00 | 3:11 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:32 | 3:11 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:03 | 0:00 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:17 | 0:06 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
Line 1C. Verhaeghe13:11E. Rodrigues14:25M. Samoskevich13:52
Line 2E. Luostarinen13:07A. Lundell13:11M. Tkachuk12:43
Line 3T. Nosek10:06A. Greer11:23C. Reinhardt11:14
Line 4V. Hinostroza8:53L. Kunin9:29J. Boqvist8:29
Pair 1A. Ekblad15:54G. Forsling16:03
Pair 2N. Mikkola15:13M. Benning15:34
Pair 3D. Kulikov15:39D. Sebrango14:44
SEA
Line 1F. Gaudreau13:40R. Winterton13:18B. Meyers12:36
Line 2B. McMann15:50M. Beniers12:36J. Eberle11:03
Line 3C. Stephenson10:43J. McCann9:56E. Tolvanen12:43
Pair 1B. Montour18:56R. Lindgren15:30
Pair 2J. Oleksiak14:05R. Evans15:19
Pair 3A. Larsson15:42V. Dunn14:39
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.3, SEA 2.8 | FLA 2, SEA 6 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 29.3, SEA 25.2 | FLA 25, SEA 25 |
| Win chance | FLA 57% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.7 | 3 | 1.04 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.6 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.3 | 4 | 0.69 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.2 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.2 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.1 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA B. McMann | 2.1 | 4 | 0.53 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.9 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.8 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.8 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.7 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.6 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.6 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.4 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.3 | 4 | 0.39 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 2 | 7% | 1 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.2 | 4 | 0.41 | 3 | 15% | 1 |
| SEA B. Meyers | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| SEA B. Catton | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA F. Gaudreau | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 2 | 5% | 1 |
| FLA C. Reinhardt | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA V. Hinostroza | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA D. Sebrango | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.7 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.