Game Recap: FLA 1, SJS 3, November 8, 2025

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Game Recap

FLA1

FinalSat, Nov 8, 2025Every game that night

SJS3

SJS beat FLA 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.79 expected goals to 3.70. FLA outshot SJS 39 to 23. W. Smith led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). S. Reinhart had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. Y. Askarov stopped 38 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	0	1	0	1
SJS	1	1	1	3

1st 17:25SJSM. Celebrini0.17 xG
2nd 3:06SJSA. Gaudette0.06 xG
2nd 3:34FLAB. Marchand0.15 xG
3rd 19:09SJSA. WennbergEN0.90 xG

Team Stats

FLASJS

39Shots on goal23

3.70Expected goals2.79

77Shot attempts38

305v5 shots on goal17

0/5Power play0/2

23Hits17

11Blocked shots18

4Penalty minutes10

15Giveaways13

7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.70 xGSJS 2.79 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA38 on goal, 1 scored

SJS22 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lundell	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	21:28	6:11
B. Marchand	LW	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0	20:49	6:08
E. Luostarinen	C	0	1	1	3	4	2	0	0	18:52	3:46
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	7	0	1	-1	0	21:07	5:54
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	20:36	5:54
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	0	18:31	3:29
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	2	15:00	3:29
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:41	3:08
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	10:29	0:00
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	9:45	0:11
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	9:31	0:11
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	8:10	0:11
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	26:44	6:20
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	4	1	3	-1	0	19:35	0:37
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	19:29	3:30
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	18:07	0:11
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:53	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	22	20	2	.909	58:08	Loss
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Smith	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	18:37	2:30
C. Graf	RW	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	18:04	0:00
A. Wennberg	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	2	17:49	2:29
M. Celebrini	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	2	16:59	2:28
A. Gaudette	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	9:48	1:31
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	18:09	0:00
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	15:51	2:29
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	13:46	1:30
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	12:47	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	12:02	1:32
E. Cardwell	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:28	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	2	8:17	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	21:47	1:12
V. Desharnais	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	20:31	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	0	0	19:18	1:26
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	+1	0	22:44	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	20:22	2:53
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	39	38	1	.974	60:00	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe12:50E. Rodrigues13:40S. Reinhart12:15

Line 2S. Bennett11:31M. Samoskevich11:33J. Boqvist10:29

Line 3E. Luostarinen11:42A. Lundell11:35B. Marchand11:43

Line 4N. Gregor9:20C. Schwindt8:29A. Greer7:59

Pair 1S. Jones17:29N. Mikkola16:47

Pair 2A. Ekblad13:59G. Forsling16:03

Pair 3J. Petry12:05D. Sebrango12:01

SJS

Line 1W. Smith13:50M. Celebrini12:28T. Toffoli11:50

Line 2A. Wennberg12:51C. Graf11:34P. Kurashev12:16

Line 3T. Dellandrea11:33E. Cardwell10:07J. Skinner10:30

Line 4R. Reaves7:51B. Goodrow9:55A. Gaudette8:17

Pair 1J. Klingberg17:23M. Ferraro15:42

Pair 2D. Orlov15:55T. Liljegren14:49

Pair 3V. Desharnais11:58S. Dickinson12:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.7, SJS 2.4	FLA 1, SJS 3
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	FLA 31.0, SJS 24.1	FLA 39, SJS 23
Win chance	FLA 69%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Reinhart	3.1	7	1.19	0	45%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.8	3	0.84	1	27%	1
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.8	2	0.86	0	32%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.7	3	0.75	0	30%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.7	4	1.02	1	34%	1
FLA A. Lundell	2.4	1	0.86	1	25%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.4	2	0.65	0	28%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.3	0	0.61	0	21%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.2	4	0.60	0	21%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.9	4	0.47	0	13%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.9	1	0.60	0	13%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.9	2	0.70	2	24%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.9	1	0.60	0	14%	0
SJS J. Skinner	1.6	3	0.45	0	21%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.6	0	0.39	1	7%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.6	3	0.56	1	18%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.6	0	0.43	0	8%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.5	0	0.49	0	17%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.2	0	0.26	1	6%	0
FLA N. Gregor	1.2	0	0.19	0	10%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.2	4	0.26	0	6%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.2	1	0.14	0	5%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	2	0.46	1	15%	1
SJS A. Gaudette	1.1	2	0.29	1	15%	1
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	3	0.19	0	4%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.0	2	0.32	0	14%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.0	0	0.26	0	11%	0
SJS E. Cardwell	0.9	0	0.24	0	13%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.9	2	0.21	0	8%	0
SJS C. Graf	0.9	0	0.24	1	11%	0
FLA D. Sebrango	0.9	1	0.14	0	4%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.9	1	0.29	0	5%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.8	1	0.21	0	8%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.7	1	0.15	0	8%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.5	0	0.09	1	1%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.4	2	0.10	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.