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Game Recap
FLA3
Final/OTThu, Oct 1, 2026Every game that night
SJS4

SJS beat FLA 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 3.32 expected goals to 4.29. W. Smith led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Celebrini had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. Y. Askarov stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
FLA01203
SJS12014
  1. 1st 14:20SJSM. Marchment0.02 xG
  2. 2nd 5:52SJSW. SmithSH0.16 xG
  3. 2nd 10:37SJSW. SmithPP0.65 xG
  4. 2nd 17:10FLAE. LuostarinenPP0.76 xG
  5. 3rd 5:01FLAE. Luostarinen0.05 xG
  6. 3rd 5:18FLAM. Tkachuk0.14 xG
  7. OT 3:14SJSL. Cagnoni0.16 xG

Team Stats

FLASJS
26Shots on goal32
4.29Expected goals3.32
70Shot attempts61
175v5 shots on goal17
1/6Power play1/4
41Hits24
12Blocked shots21
18Penalty minutes22
15Giveaways20
3Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 4.29 xGSJS 3.32 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdOTSJS goal, 14:20SJS goal, 5:52SJS goal, 10:37FLA goal, 17:10FLA goal, 5:01FLA goal, 5:18SJS goal, 3:14

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA26 on goal, 3 scored
SJS32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
E. LuostarinenC2023010016:282:10
M. TkachukLW1012210022:479:10
S. BennettC0111300220:493:39
A. LundellC011330-1020:436:23
L. EllerC0112110014:570:15
S. ReinhartC0002410023:337:07
B. TkachukLW000451-2519:376:34
C. VerhaegheC0000100017:142:52
S. VilmanisLW0002400012:190:06
A. BarkovC000111009:153:03
G. HathawayRW000030006:030:00
B. ImamaLW000050005:160:00
A. EkbladD011000-1021:333:32
D. KulikovD011011+1017:280:03
S. JonesD000201-1227:437:10
N. MikkolaD0002100222:420:11
R. GudasD000143+1013:310:00
U. BalinskisD0001310712:520:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Schmid32284.87563:14OT loss
J. Markstrom000–0:00

SJS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. CelebriniC033701+1022:575:19
W. SmithC213310+2020:095:19
M. MarchmentLW1014300212:440:29
A. WennbergC000311+1021:444:52
C. GrafRW0000110516:480:00
B. GoodrowC0000110014:090:00
K. SherwoodLW0001800414:010:00
I. StenbergLW0000000013:350:29
I. ChernyshovLW000101-1012:133:37
M. MisaC000410-1011:340:56
Z. OstapchukC0000020011:290:00
T. ToffoliC000100-109:240:29
L. CagnoniD112303+1221:175:19
J. TroubaD0002310522:350:00
N. AllanD000121+1020:440:00
M. KesselringD0001010019:460:00
D. OrlovD000113-1017:550:29
D. NurseD0000250417:070:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
Y. Askarov26233.88563:14Win
A. Nedeljkovic000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe13:05S. Bennett15:22M. Tkachuk12:59
Line 2S. Reinhart14:36B. Tkachuk12:36L. Eller12:49
Line 3E. Luostarinen12:24S. Vilmanis12:13A. Lundell11:38
Line 4G. Hathaway4:12B. Imama5:16
Pair 1S. Jones17:42N. Mikkola19:07
Pair 2D. Kulikov13:57A. Ekblad13:19
Pair 3R. Gudas12:01U. Balinskis12:52

SJS

Line 1W. Smith13:02M. Celebrini14:08M. Marchment11:44
Line 2A. Wennberg13:32C. Graf13:37I. Stenberg13:06
Line 3T. Toffoli8:55M. Misa9:53I. Chernyshov8:13
Line 4K. Sherwood10:35Z. Ostapchuk7:54B. Goodrow8:34
Pair 1D. Orlov15:52L. Cagnoni15:29
Pair 2D. Nurse13:31M. Kesselring14:54
Pair 3J. Trouba14:58N. Allan14:23

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 17 overs hit (47%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
FLA B. Tkachuk3.5+120-1524Over
SJS M. Celebrini3.5+110-1257Over
FLA A. Barkov2.5+148-1701Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.5+132-1550Under
FLA M. Tkachuk2.5-125-1042Under
FLA S. Bennett2.5+115-1441Under
FLA S. Reinhart2.5-110-1182Under
SJS W. Smith2.5+125-1503Over
FLA A. Ekblad1.5+115-1450Under
FLA A. Lundell1.5-135+1103Over
SJS D. Nurse1.5-135+1100Under
SJS D. Orlov1.5+125-1601Under
SJS J. Trouba1.5-105-1202Over
SJS L. Cagnoni1.5+110-1303Over
SJS M. Marchment1.5-135+1084Over
FLA S. Jones1.5-120-1022Over
SJS T. Toffoli1.5-135+1121Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreFLA 3.3, SJS 3.0FLA 3, SJS 4
Total goals6.37
Shots on goalFLA 26.9, SJS 26.2FLA 26, SJS 32
Win chanceFLA 53%SJS won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
FLA B. Tkachuk3.740.91033%0
SJS M. Celebrini3.071.08332%0
FLA S. Bennett2.810.78130%0
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.700.83031%0
FLA M. Tkachuk2.721.06132%1
FLA S. Reinhart2.620.96037%0
FLA A. Barkov2.311.08029%0
SJS D. Nurse2.200.3709%0
FLA A. Lundell2.230.68122%0
SJS J. Trouba2.120.3608%0
SJS W. Smith2.030.72323%2
SJS K. Sherwood2.010.49021%0
SJS M. Marchment1.840.66124%1
SJS T. Toffoli1.810.52021%0
FLA S. Jones1.720.62014%0
SJS I. Chernyshov1.610.59020%0
SJS C. Graf1.500.50019%0
FLA E. Luostarinen1.430.44214%2
SJS L. Cagnoni1.330.2524%1
FLA A. Ekblad1.300.46111%0
FLA U. Balinskis1.310.3109%0
SJS M. Misa1.240.44016%0
SJS D. Orlov1.210.4007%0
SJS A. Wennberg1.130.56016%0
SJS M. Kesselring1.110.1704%0
FLA N. Mikkola1.120.2307%0
FLA L. Eller1.020.2219%0
FLA S. Vilmanis0.920.28013%0
FLA G. Hathaway0.900.19010%0
FLA D. Kulikov0.800.1915%0
SJS B. Goodrow0.800.1708%0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk0.800.1207%0
FLA R. Gudas0.710.1503%0
FLA B. Imama0.600.1007%0
SJS N. Allan0.510.1903%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.