Game Recap: FLA 4, STL 5, January 29, 2026

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Game Recap

FLA4

FinalThu, Jan 29, 2026Every game that night

STL5

STL beat FLA 5-4 despite fewer good chances: 2.70 expected goals to 3.80. STL outshot FLA 31 to 20. M. Tkachuk led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Snuggerud had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Hofer stopped 16 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	2	2	0	4
STL	3	1	1	5

1st 3:12FLAA. Greer0.49 xG
1st 4:46STLJ. Neighbours0.10 xG
1st 7:51STLJ. Kyrou0.14 xG
1st 9:22FLAS. ReinhartPP0.55 xG
1st 14:27STLJ. Berggren0.13 xG
2nd 0:41STLO. Sundqvist0.07 xG
2nd 16:52FLAM. Tkachuk0.07 xG
2nd 18:39FLAM. TkachukPP0.14 xG
3rd 19:51STLJ. SnuggerudPP0.18 xG

Team Stats

FLASTL

20Shots on goal31

3.80Expected goals2.70

58Shot attempts48

85v5 shots on goal19

2/8Power play1/5

17Hits26

8Blocked shots17

19Penalty minutes23

11Giveaways10

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.80 xGSTL 2.70 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA20 on goal, 4 scored

STL30 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Tkachuk	LW	2	1	3	5	0	0	0	2	23:41	8:54
S. Reinhart	C	1	1	2	3	4	2	-2	0	22:52	8:13
S. Bennett	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	2	22:09	6:56
E. Luostarinen	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:23	0:53
S. Vilmanis	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	8:32	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	8:21	0:00
A. Greer	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	5	7:27	0:00
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:41	1:53
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	16:42	2:38
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	15:30	1:46
B. Marchand	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	11:19	5:13
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	6:57	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-2	0	26:58	3:31
U. Balinskis	D	0	1	1	3	3	1	-2	0	20:43	5:45
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	2	23:10	1:42
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	18:57	0:02
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	11:41	0:03
T. Bjornfot	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	9:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	31	26	5	.839	59:44	Loss
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Kyrou	RW	1	2	3	3	0	1	+1	0	17:51	4:06
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	21:57	4:11
J. Neighbours	LW	1	0	1	1	2	1	+2	0	17:30	4:07
J. Snuggerud	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	14:11	2:04
O. Sundqvist	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	2	12:55	0:00
J. Berggren	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	11:11	0:13
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	2	16:48	1:31
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	4	13:31	2:16
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:52	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	+1	2	11:33	0:00
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	8:51	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	6	7:39	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	2	2	4	0	2	-1	0	25:11	2:38
P. Broberg	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+3	2	23:52	2:14
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	2	3	3	+1	0	21:41	0:13
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	19:53	1:01
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	5	13:45	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	12:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	20	16	4	.800	60:00	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe11:54E. Rodrigues13:13S. Reinhart9:08

Line 2M. Samoskevich13:44M. Tkachuk12:33S. Bennett11:52

Line 3S. Vilmanis8:32L. Kunin8:21A. Greer7:27

Line 4E. Luostarinen9:54C. Schwindt6:43B. Marchand5:18

Pair 1A. Ekblad15:36G. Forsling15:26

Pair 2N. Mikkola15:51U. Balinskis12:54

Pair 3J. Petry10:08T. Bjornfot9:21

STL

Line 1J. Kyrou11:43J. Neighbours12:34P. Buchnevich9:56

Line 2B. Schenn13:19J. Snuggerud10:49D. Dvorsky11:02

Line 3O. Sundqvist8:07A. Toropchenko7:58N. Walker7:45

Line 4N. Bjugstad6:25R. Fabbri8:13J. Berggren10:01

Pair 1J. Faulk15:57T. Tucker12:43

Pair 2P. Broberg13:48C. Parayko12:40

Pair 3C. Fowler12:56L. Mailloux11:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.1, STL 2.8	FLA 4, STL 5
Total goals	6.0	9
Shots on goal	FLA 27.6, STL 23.7	FLA 20, STL 31
Win chance	FLA 55%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Bennett	3.0	0	0.87	1	33%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	3	0.98	2	39%	1
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.4	5	0.99	3	30%	2
FLA B. Marchand	2.3	2	0.86	0	30%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.2	3	0.67	3	28%	1
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.2	1	0.77	0	28%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.0	5	0.52	1	18%	1
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.0	1	0.48	0	18%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.8	4	0.50	2	10%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.7	2	0.72	2	25%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.6	1	0.45	1	11%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.6	1	0.31	0	12%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.5	3	0.39	1	9%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.5	2	0.58	0	22%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.5	2	0.37	0	9%	0
STL N. Bjugstad	1.4	0	0.30	0	15%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.4	0	0.45	0	8%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.4	2	0.42	1	9%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.4	1	0.38	0	18%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.3	1	0.44	1	14%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.3	1	0.45	1	19%	1
FLA A. Greer	1.2	1	0.29	1	12%	1
STL J. Neighbours	1.2	1	0.50	1	22%	1
STL R. Fabbri	1.2	2	0.36	0	17%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.1	2	0.45	0	6%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	0	0.21	0	5%	0
STL T. Tucker	1.0	1	0.21	0	5%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	0.9	1	0.23	0	10%	0
STL L. Mailloux	0.9	1	0.18	0	5%	0
FLA S. Vilmanis	0.9	0	0.23	1	11%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	1	0.33	1	11%	1
STL N. Walker	0.8	0	0.26	0	12%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.8	0	0.21	0	3%	0
FLA L. Kunin	0.7	1	0.11	1	7%	0
FLA T. Bjornfot	0.6	0	0.09	0	2%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.6	0	0.16	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.