Game Recap: FLA 2, VAN 5, March 17, 2026

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Game Recap

FLA2

FinalTue, Mar 17, 2026Every game that night

VAN5

VAN beat FLA 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.77 expected goals to 4.12. M. Rossi led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Foote had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. K. Lankinen stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	1	1	0	2
VAN	3	1	1	5

1st 3:49VANE. PetterssonPP0.10 xG
1st 11:41FLAM. Tkachuk0.16 xG
1st 13:40VANE. PetterssonPP0.09 xG
1st 17:46VANM. Rossi0.23 xG
2nd 11:28FLAS. Bennett0.17 xG
2nd 14:27VANA. Räty0.25 xG
3rd 14:25VAND. O'Connor0.27 xG

Team Stats

FLAVAN

23Shots on goal22

4.12Expected goals2.77

61Shot attempts42

225v5 shots on goal17

0/2Power play2/4

27Hits20

10Blocked shots12

28Penalty minutes24

20Giveaways14

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 4.12 xGVAN 2.77 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA22 on goal, 2 scored

VAN22 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Tkachuk	LW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	2	18:18	3:56
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	2	2	0	3	0	+1	0	14:57	0:12
S. Bennett	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	19:34	4:00
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	21:05	3:48
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	4	4	1	0	2	18:29	3:45
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:19	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:07	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:39	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:16	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	10	10:32	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	12	10:20	0:15
N. Foote	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	-2	0	8:23	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	23:29	3:44
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	22:28	0:04
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	20:16	0:16
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	20:16	0:00
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	14:57	0:00
M. Benning	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	14:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	22	17	5	.773	60:00	Loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Boeser	RW	0	3	3	2	0	0	+1	0	17:33	4:41
M. Rossi	C	1	2	3	2	3	0	+1	0	16:59	4:40
E. Pettersson	C	2	0	2	4	0	0	-1	0	17:39	4:34
L. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	15:35	1:09
D. O'Connor	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	2	14:35	2:11
L. Ohgren	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:14	0:00
E. Kane	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	12	13:04	1:07
A. Räty	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	11:27	0:00
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	18:43	0:09
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:19	3:39
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	14:59	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	10:29	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+1	0	20:07	1:18
E. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	0	3	3	-1	10	18:23	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	23:47	4:18
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	19:54	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	17:12	1:34
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	16:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	23	21	2	.913	60:00	Win
N. Tolopilo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe14:39S. Bennett15:26M. Tkachuk14:22

Line 2A. Lundell15:20M. Samoskevich14:44J. Boqvist13:24

Line 3A. Greer11:16C. Reinhardt12:42T. Nosek10:50

Line 4V. Hinostroza10:05L. Kunin9:11N. Foote8:23

Pair 1A. Ekblad17:08G. Forsling16:55

Pair 2D. Kulikov19:52S. Jones17:46

Pair 3M. Benning14:43D. Sebrango13:54

VAN

Line 1T. Blueger16:27M. Sasson14:42L. Karlsson14:26

Line 2B. Boeser11:37M. Rossi12:19L. Ohgren11:47

Line 3E. Pettersson11:49D. O'Connor12:24J. DeBrusk11:37

Line 4N. Hoglander10:29A. Räty10:52E. Kane11:57

Pair 1M. Pettersson17:11T. Willander17:37

Pair 2F. Hronek16:41E. Pettersson17:06

Pair 3Z. Buium15:38V. Mancini16:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.3, VAN 2.9	FLA 2, VAN 5
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	FLA 28.5, VAN 25.5	FLA 23, VAN 22
Win chance	FLA 56%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Bennett	2.7	4	0.85	1	30%	1
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.6	3	1.11	2	31%	1
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.3	0	0.78	2	27%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.1	2	0.51	1	24%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.1	2	0.72	0	21%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.0	4	0.43	0	15%	0
VAN B. Boeser	1.9	2	0.66	3	28%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	1.9	2	0.50	0	23%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.7	1	0.44	1	19%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.7	1	0.66	0	10%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.6	1	0.34	1	15%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.6	4	0.73	2	25%	2
FLA S. Jones	1.6	1	0.46	0	11%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.5	1	0.57	0	12%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.5	1	0.39	0	10%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.4	1	0.47	1	17%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.4	1	0.36	0	14%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.3	2	0.58	3	21%	1
VAN T. Blueger	1.3	2	0.43	0	13%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.1	1	0.42	1	8%	0
FLA N. Foote	1.1	4	0.32	0	15%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.1	1	0.36	0	4%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.1	1	0.33	0	15%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.0	0	0.29	0	16%	0
VAN Z. Buium	1.0	0	0.35	0	6%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.0	1	0.27	1	12%	1
FLA T. Nosek	1.0	0	0.23	0	6%	0
FLA L. Kunin	0.9	2	0.17	0	9%	0
FLA V. Hinostroza	0.9	0	0.24	0	9%	0
FLA C. Reinhardt	0.9	0	0.20	0	9%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.9	0	0.21	0	5%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.8	0	0.25	0	11%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.8	0	0.17	1	4%	0
FLA D. Sebrango	0.8	0	0.12	0	3%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.6	0	0.16	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 28 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.