Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
FLA2
WPG1
FLA beat WPG 2-1 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.09 expected goals to 2.00. E. Rodrigues had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. D. Tarasov stopped 17 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| WPG | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 18:49FLAS. Bennett0.09 xG
- 3rd 5:24WPGC. Perfetti0.22 xG
Team Stats
FLAWPG
20Shots on goal18
2.09Expected goals2.00
46Shot attempts47
185v5 shots on goal16
0/1Power play0/2
27Hits24
14Blocked shots9
10Penalty minutes8
14Giveaways17
1Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.09 xGWPG 2.00 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:42 | 0:23 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:31 | 0:37 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:19 | 0:38 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:31 | 0:17 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:22 | 0:30 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 17:50 | 0:02 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:03 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| S. Vilmanis | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:49 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:23 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:30 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 27:19 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 26:39 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:03 | 0:32 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:14 | 0:08 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:10 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 18 | 17 | 1 | .944 | 65:00 | Win |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:59 | 1:03 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:05 | 1:15 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:50 | 1:25 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:18 | 1:28 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:14 | 1:51 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:41 | 1:26 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 1:00 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:58 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:45 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 26:12 | 1:18 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:31 | 0:14 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:08 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 18:37 | 1:22 |
| E. Salomonsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 20 | 19 | 1 | .950 | 64:47 | OT loss |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
Line 1C. Verhaeghe16:34S. Bennett16:53M. Tkachuk15:40
Line 2S. Reinhart16:21A. Lundell15:17E. Luostarinen15:36
Line 3M. Samoskevich13:36E. Rodrigues15:10A. Greer12:45
Line 4S. Vilmanis8:36L. Kunin7:10C. Schwindt5:30
Pair 1G. Forsling22:27A. Ekblad21:49
Pair 2U. Balinskis20:02N. Mikkola18:30
Pair 3J. Petry12:52T. Bjornfot10:47
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele18:14K. Connor16:36A. Iafallo16:10
Line 2J. Toews14:20G. Vilardi14:36C. Perfetti13:12
Line 3N. Niederreiter14:08V. Namestnikov13:46A. Lowry12:57
Line 4C. Koepke8:12T. Pearson8:42M. Barron8:16
Pair 1J. Morrissey20:57D. DeMelo21:14
Pair 2D. Samberg20:36E. Salomonsson13:50
Pair 3L. Schenn13:25L. Stanley16:24
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.9, WPG 3.0 | FLA 2, WPG 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 27.1, WPG 25.7 | FLA 20, WPG 18 |
| Win chance | WPG 53% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 2.9 | 1 | 1.11 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.8 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 0 | 0.94 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.5 | 1 | 0.94 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.3 | 0 | 0.77 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.3 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.0 | 2 | 0.86 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 1.9 | 1 | 1.07 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.9 | 5 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.8 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.7 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.5 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.4 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.4 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.1 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG E. Salomonsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG T. Pearson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA S. Vilmanis | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.7 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| FLA C. Schwindt | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.