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Game Recap
FLA5
FinalTue, Oct 27, 2026Every game that night
WPG1

FLA beat WPG 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.41 expected goals to 2.64. M. Tkachuk led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). A. Schmid stopped 24 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
FLA3115
WPG0101
  1. 1st 7:27FLAC. VerhaeghePP0.28 xG
  2. 1st 8:42FLAN. Mikkola0.02 xG
  3. 1st 10:18FLAC. VerhaeghePP0.10 xG
  4. 2nd 12:27WPGA. LowrySH0.42 xG
  5. 2nd 13:14FLAS. ReinhartPP0.23 xG
  6. 3rd 12:10FLAB. Tkachuk0.10 xG

Team Stats

FLAWPG
24Shots on goal25
3.41Expected goals2.64
48Shot attempts51
145v5 shots on goal20
3/5Power play0/2
28Hits23
10Blocked shots9
6Penalty minutes10
13Giveaways14
3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.41 xGWPG 2.64 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdFLA goal, 7:27FLA goal, 8:42FLA goal, 10:18WPG goal, 12:27FLA goal, 13:14FLA goal, 12:10

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA23 on goal, 5 scored
WPG24 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. TkachukLW044100+1216:455:41
B. TkachukLW123120+1016:175:53
C. VerhaegheC202320-1218:265:34
S. ReinhartC101220-1018:345:51
E. LuostarinenC0001000016:080:58
A. LundellC0004010016:071:04
L. EllerC0000100015:490:49
G. HathawayRW0000620014:150:03
S. BennettC000221+2012:441:23
S. VilmanisLW0002400012:350:03
C. SchwindtRW0001100011:180:03
B. ImamaLW0000310011:110:00
S. JonesD033320+1025:025:30
N. MikkolaD112320+2219:160:03
G. ForslingD0001130019:250:20
A. EkbladD0000020019:201:27
D. KulikovD0000000015:530:00
R. GudasD0000000014:550:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Schmid25241.96060:00Win
C. Black000–0:00

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. LowryC101300+1013:490:23
K. ConnorLW0003000021:342:30
M. ScheifeleC000311-1220:112:30
D. MercerC000100-1016:071:15
C. PerfettiC0003110016:072:24
M. BarronC0001300014:330:00
G. VilardiC000300-1014:132:30
V. BjörckC000010-1012:041:19
I. RosenRW000100-1011:501:17
B. LambertC000000-1011:201:30
C. KoepkeLW0000200211:180:00
A. IafalloLW000040+1210:590:09
M. FerraroD0000350021:300:00
N. PionkD000220-1021:282:23
E. SalomonssonD000210-1020:511:32
D. SambergD000112-1020:350:13
D. DeMeloD000020+1219:220:05
T. BauerD0002200213:100:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Stevenson24195.79260:00Loss
S. Skinner000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1E. Luostarinen12:23A. Lundell12:41L. Eller12:50
Line 2S. Reinhart12:03S. Vilmanis12:32C. Verhaeghe12:07
Line 3G. Hathaway12:32B. Imama11:11C. Schwindt11:15
Line 4M. Tkachuk11:03B. Tkachuk9:53S. Bennett10:50
Pair 1G. Forsling16:06A. Ekblad15:12
Pair 2S. Jones16:47N. Mikkola17:42
Pair 3D. Kulikov14:38R. Gudas14:40

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele16:27K. Connor15:46C. Perfetti13:43
Line 2D. Mercer12:44V. Björck10:44A. Iafallo10:07
Line 3G. Vilardi10:50I. Rosen10:33A. Lowry10:40
Line 4M. Barron10:40C. Koepke9:25B. Lambert9:50
Pair 1D. Samberg15:41N. Pionk15:06
Pair 2D. DeMelo16:31E. Salomonsson16:51
Pair 3M. Ferraro17:57T. Bauer12:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 15 overs hit (47%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
FLA B. Tkachuk3.5+130-1551Under
WPG K. Connor3.5+115-1403Under
WPG C. Perfetti2.5+125-1453Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.5+130-1603Over
FLA M. Tkachuk2.5+100-1101Under
FLA S. Bennett2.5+120-1402Under
FLA S. Reinhart2.5+106-1202Under
FLA A. Ekblad1.5-105-1400Under
FLA A. Lundell1.5-160+1404Over
FLA E. Luostarinen1.5+100-1451Under
FLA G. Forsling1.5+115-1201Under
WPG G. Vilardi1.5-145+1153Over
WPG M. Scheifele1.5-170+1303Over
WPG N. Pionk1.5-130+1102Over
FLA S. Jones1.5-130+1003Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreFLA 2.9, WPG 3.0FLA 5, WPG 1
Total goals5.96
Shots on goalFLA 26.7, WPG 26.0FLA 24, WPG 25
Win chanceWPG 51%FLA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WPG K. Connor3.331.19040%0
FLA B. Tkachuk3.010.71326%1
FLA S. Bennett2.520.69026%0
WPG C. Perfetti2.430.76027%0
FLA S. Reinhart2.420.85133%1
FLA M. Tkachuk2.410.98428%0
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.230.74228%2
WPG N. Pionk2.220.59012%0
WPG M. Scheifele2.131.20036%0
FLA A. Lundell1.940.54019%0
FLA S. Jones1.830.52310%0
WPG G. Vilardi1.730.80029%0
WPG D. Mercer1.510.43019%0
FLA G. Forsling1.510.3409%0
WPG D. Samberg1.410.3005%0
WPG I. Rosen1.410.34016%0
FLA S. Vilmanis1.420.34015%0
FLA A. Ekblad1.400.4209%0
FLA E. Luostarinen1.310.43015%0
FLA L. Eller1.300.35014%0
WPG A. Iafallo1.200.35015%0
WPG M. Barron1.210.31013%0
WPG A. Lowry1.130.42117%1
FLA N. Mikkola1.130.2226%1
WPG C. Koepke1.100.22010%0
WPG E. Salomonsson1.120.1804%0
WPG V. Björck1.100.25013%0
WPG D. DeMelo1.000.2705%0
WPG M. Ferraro0.900.2005%0
FLA C. Schwindt0.810.2008%0
FLA R. Gudas0.800.1603%0
FLA D. Kulikov0.700.1504%0
FLA G. Hathaway0.700.1508%0
WPG B. Lambert0.700.1706%0
FLA B. Imama0.600.0705%0
WPG T. Bauer0.520.0601%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.