LAK beat ANA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.92 expected goals to 1.45. LAK outshot ANA 36 to 14. M. Anderson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Clarke had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. D. Rittich stopped 13 of 14.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 3.92 xGANA 1.45 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:42 | 2:15 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:01 | 2:15 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 | 2:05 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:20 | 1:45 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:42 | 2:08 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:39 | 1:52 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:47 | 1:55 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:35 | 1:45 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:00 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:52 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:22 | 0:00 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:13 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:51 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 23:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:23 | 1:50 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16:39 | 2:10 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Rittich | 14 | 13 | 1 | .929 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Copley | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Strome | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:29 | 3:02 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:30 | 3:04 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:57 | 2:58 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:10 | 2:58 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:01 | 2:46 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 2:45 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 2:58 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:16 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 16:59 | 2:39 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:22 | 0:14 |
| B. McGinn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:04 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:07 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:48 | 2:59 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:59 | 0:07 |
| T. Luneau | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:47 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:00 | 2:54 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 | 0:00 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:16 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 3.4, ANA 2.7 | LAK 4, ANA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 32.0, ANA 26.1 | LAK 36, ANA 14 |
| Win chance | LAK 61% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.3 | 1 | 1.01 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.9 | 5 | 0.99 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.8 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.7 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.2 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 2.1 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.1 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.0 | 3 | 0.42 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.0 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 2.0 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 1.8 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.8 | 0 | 0.94 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.7 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.7 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.7 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.6 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.6 | 6 | 0.43 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.3 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA T. Luneau | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA C. Fowler | 1.2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA B. McGinn | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK A. Lee | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 0.9 | 4 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 0.7 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK A. Englund | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.