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Game Recap
LAK1
BOS2
BOS beat LAK 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.99 expected goals to 2.04. J. Swayman stopped 15 of 16.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 3rd 8:22BOSM. Lohrei0.09 xG
- 3rd 14:00LAKD. Doughty0.01 xG
- OT 0:39BOSC. McAvoy0.26 xG
Team Stats
LAKBOS
16Shots on goal23
2.04Expected goals3.99
62Shot attempts60
145v5 shots on goal19
0/2Power play0/4
22Hits21
17Blocked shots13
13Penalty minutes9
12Giveaways16
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 2.04 xGBOS 3.99 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:50 | 0:15 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:04 | 2:02 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:39 | 0:18 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:24 | 1:52 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 | 1:53 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 2:02 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:14 |
| J. Wright | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:13 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:02 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Ward | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:39 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:44 | 0:43 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:46 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:48 | 0:13 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 17:25 | 1:25 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:36 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 60:18 | OT loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:03 | 5:35 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:20 | 1:08 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:29 | 3:48 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:20 | 4:02 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 4:03 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:28 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 2:16 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:06 | 2:03 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:26 | 2:15 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:49 | 3:35 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:44 | 2:22 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 16 | 15 | 1 | .938 | 60:19 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
LAK
Line 1A. Laferriere15:40T. Moore15:38Q. Byfield15:49
Line 2A. Kopitar14:48A. Kempe14:35A. Panarin14:30
Line 3S. Laughton12:12J. Wright10:13A. Turcotte9:15
Line 4S. Helenius8:26T. Ward8:05J. Malott7:39
Pair 1D. Doughty19:13M. Anderson20:54
Pair 2J. Edmundson15:10B. Clarke14:21
Pair 3B. Dumoulin13:29C. Ceci15:03
BOS
Line 1E. Lindholm14:45D. Pastrnak15:50M. Khusnutdinov12:29
Line 2P. Zacha12:28C. Mittelstadt12:03V. Arvidsson11:35
Line 3S. Kuraly11:06M. Kastelic11:27T. Jeannot11:23
Line 4M. Geekie12:12F. Minten11:16M. Eyssimont9:43
Pair 1C. McAvoy17:54J. Aspirot16:33
Pair 2A. Peeke17:30N. Zadorov14:45
Pair 3H. Lindholm16:24M. Lohrei15:37
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 2.8, BOS 3.3 | LAK 1, BOS 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 27.8, BOS 28.0 | LAK 16, BOS 23 |
| Win chance | BOS 58% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.7 | 2 | 1.34 | 1 | 41% | 0 |
| LAK A. Panarin | 3.2 | 2 | 1.15 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.1 | 2 | 0.91 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.9 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.6 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.3 | 4 | 0.49 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.3 | 4 | 0.83 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.2 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 2.1 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.9 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BOS M. Eyssimont | 1.7 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.7 | 3 | 0.66 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.6 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.5 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| LAK S. Laughton | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| LAK T. Ward | 1.3 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.2 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 1.0 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.6 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.