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Game Recap
LAK3
BUF1
LAK beat BUF 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.95 expected goals to 4.39. BUF outshot LAK 33 to 23. A. Kopitar scored three for LAK. D. Cozens had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. D. Kuemper stopped 32 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| BUF | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 16:55BUFA. TuchSH0.35 xG
- 3rd 0:13LAKA. Kopitar0.17 xG
- 3rd 18:22LAKA. KopitarPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 19:18LAKA. KopitarEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
LAKBUF
23Shots on goal33
2.95Expected goals4.39
47Shot attempts76
165v5 shots on goal14
1/5Power play0/5
20Hits29
19Blocked shots15
15Penalty minutes35
12Giveaways13
2Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 2.95 xGBUF 4.39 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kopitar | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:00 | 4:48 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:14 | 3:43 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 18:49 | 4:53 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 4:47 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:43 | 4:23 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:21 | 2:56 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:01 | 3:01 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:10 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:00 | 2:59 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:53 | 0:00 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:26 | 0:05 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 21:37 | 4:26 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 20:36 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:57 | 0:13 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:14 | 0:07 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17:23 | 3:34 |
| K. Burroughs | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 33 | 32 | 1 | .970 | 59:36 | Win |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:50 | 4:09 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:09 | 3:59 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:07 | 4:57 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 10 | 16:43 | 4:38 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 3:51 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:01 | 3:58 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 13:19 | 4:47 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7:25 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:58 | 4:47 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:00 | 5:01 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:22 | 3:55 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:42 | 0:08 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 58:17 | Loss |
| D. Levi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 3.0, BUF 3.0 | LAK 3, BUF 1 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 29.2, BUF 29.5 | LAK 23, BUF 33 |
| Win chance | BUF 51% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.4 | 0 | 0.90 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.3 | 5 | 0.84 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 3.0 | 1 | 0.91 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.9 | 4 | 0.90 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.8 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.7 | 6 | 0.66 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.3 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.1 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 2.0 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 2.0 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.9 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 1.9 | 4 | 0.55 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.8 | 4 | 0.80 | 3 | 25% | 3 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 1.7 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 1.5 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK K. Burroughs | 1.1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.