Game Recap: LAK 4, CAR 2, February 1, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK4

FinalSat, Feb 1, 2025Every game that night

CAR2

LAK beat CAR 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.40 expected goals to 3.29. K. Fiala led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Laferriere had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. D. Kuemper stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	1	2	1	4
CAR	1	0	1	2

1st 15:22CARJ. Kotkaniemi0.09 xG
1st 17:57LAKP. Danault0.05 xG
2nd 1:03LAKT. Moore0.25 xG
2nd 16:58LAKK. Fiala0.08 xG
3rd 5:44CARE. Robinson0.08 xG
3rd 11:40LAKK. Fiala0.08 xG

Team Stats

LAKCAR

26Shots on goal28

2.40Expected goals3.29

53Shot attempts75

235v5 shots on goal20

0/1Power play0/3

22Hits15

16Blocked shots10

11Penalty minutes7

16Giveaways12

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 2.40 xGCAR 3.29 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK26 on goal, 4 scored

CAR27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	0	2	2	0	1	2	+2	0	17:42	0:50
P. Danault	C	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	0	17:20	0:50
K. Fiala	LW	2	0	2	3	1	1	+2	0	15:49	1:10
T. Moore	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:46	0:45
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	4	3	2	0	0	18:42	1:10
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	5	0	1	+2	0	18:25	1:10
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:23	1:10
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	15:28	0:50
T. Lewis	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	11:03	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	9:24	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:13	0:00
A. Thomas	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	5	8:15	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	27:50	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	4	24:16	1:15
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+2	0	25:49	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	17:20	0:50
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	13:35	0:00
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	28	26	2	.929	60:00	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Robinson	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	14:14	0:14
J. Kotkaniemi	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	12:49	1:36
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	23:49	4:23
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	22:31	4:23
M. Rantanen	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	21:04	4:24
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:37	4:22
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	16:47	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:33	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:03	1:38
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:44	1:37
J. Jaaska	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	8:26	0:00
R. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:59	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	0	0	21:49	0:14
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	2	21:42	2:54
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	0	20:09	4:29
S. Walker	D	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	0	19:55	1:46
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	17:49	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-3	0	16:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	26	22	4	.846	56:49	Loss
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSean Walker CAR Faces LAK, his team until Apr 20231 A, 3 SOG
BirthdaySeth Jarvis CAR Turns 23 that day0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.3, CAR 2.9	LAK 4, CAR 2
Total goals	5.2	6
Shots on goal	LAK 23.8, CAR 29.9	LAK 26, CAR 28
Win chance	CAR 60%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Kempe	2.8	4	0.78	0	32%	0
CAR M. Rantanen	2.7	4	1.08	0	36%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.6	2	0.95	0	33%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.5	3	0.69	2	25%	2
CAR S. Jarvis	2.3	0	0.75	0	29%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.2	3	0.46	0	19%	0
CAR B. Burns	2.1	4	0.40	1	9%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.0	2	0.48	1	19%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	1.9	5	0.42	0	18%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	1.8	0	0.53	2	18%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.8	3	0.42	0	20%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.7	0	0.51	0	19%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.6	0	0.43	0	16%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.5	0	0.44	0	17%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.5	1	0.41	1	16%	1
CAR J. Staal	1.5	1	0.42	0	15%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.5	1	0.48	2	17%	1
CAR D. Orlov	1.4	1	0.38	0	7%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.4	2	0.37	1	7%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.4	3	0.19	1	5%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.4	3	0.44	1	9%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.4	3	0.35	1	14%	1
LAK D. Doughty	1.3	2	0.49	1	10%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.3	1	0.69	0	21%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	1	0.24	0	7%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.3	1	0.30	0	4%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.2	0	0.27	1	5%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.1	2	0.32	0	4%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.1	0	0.30	0	11%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.0	0	0.18	0	4%	0
LAK T. Lewis	0.9	0	0.15	0	7%	0
CAR J. Jaaska	0.8	0	0.22	0	7%	0
LAK A. Thomas	0.8	1	0.21	0	10%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	0.8	1	0.19	0	10%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.5	0	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.