Game Recap: LAK 2, CAR 3 (OT), February 1, 2026

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Game Recap

LAK2

Final/OTSun, Feb 1, 2026Every game that night

CAR3

CAR beat LAK 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.51 expected goals to 1.59. CAR outshot LAK 34 to 13. S. Gostisbehere led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). S. Aho had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. B. Bussi stopped 11 of 13.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
LAK	0	0	2	0	2
CAR	1	0	1	1	3

1st 6:25CARJ. StaalPP0.08 xG
3rd 12:57CARA. Nikishin0.15 xG
3rd 13:21LAKS. Helenius0.17 xG
3rd 16:49LAKQ. Byfield0.19 xG
OT 1:25CARS. Aho0.11 xG

Team Stats

LAKCAR

13Shots on goal34

1.59Expected goals4.51

37Shot attempts77

125v5 shots on goal22

0/2Power play1/4

25Hits11

25Blocked shots12

14Penalty minutes10

12Giveaways13

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 1.59 xGCAR 4.51 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK13 on goal, 2 scored

CAR34 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	1	0	1	1	2	1	-1	0	20:00	1:15
A. Kempe	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	19:22	2:05
S. Helenius	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	9:05	0:10
J. Malott	LW	0	1	1	1	6	1	+1	0	8:26	0:08
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	18:44	1:11
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	18:14	2:06
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	17:11	1:40
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	6	14:51	2:24
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:35	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:07	0:08
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:05	1:38
T. Ward	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	8:30	0:55
B. Dumoulin	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	22:05	0:11
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+2	0	25:47	1:13
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	2	23:51	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	4	0	6	-2	4	22:35	2:14
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	19:53	0:02
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	34	31	3	.912	61:25	OT loss
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	5	0	1	+1	0	19:12	3:43
S. Jarvis	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	19:04	3:49
J. Staal	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	18:40	1:04
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:30	3:51
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	20:07	3:47
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	15:10	1:36
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:42	1:43
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	14:23	1:17
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	6	14:11	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:03	0:07
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	9:20	0:07
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	7:53	0:07
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	18:41	3:51
A. Nikishin	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	13:31	1:15
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	24:38	0:07
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	20:22	0:24
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	19:56	0:25
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	19:52	0:27

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	13	11	2	.846	61:25	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1K. Fiala14:48A. Kuzmenko12:25Q. Byfield12:32

Line 2C. Perry12:27A. Laferriere12:48A. Kempe13:18

Line 3A. Kopitar14:15J. Armia11:49T. Moore11:22

Line 4J. Malott8:18S. Helenius8:55T. Ward7:35

Pair 1J. Edmundson20:10B. Clarke19:52

Pair 2B. Dumoulin16:04C. Ceci14:44

Pair 3D. Doughty18:08M. Anderson2:50

CAR

Line 1J. Staal14:29J. Martinook13:27N. Ehlers14:26

Line 2L. Stankoven12:25J. Blake12:45T. Hall13:06

Line 3S. Aho11:09S. Jarvis11:11A. Svechnikov10:58

Line 4M. Jankowski8:36J. Kotkaniemi9:13W. Carrier7:46

Pair 1J. Slavin18:29J. Chatfield16:54

Pair 2S. Walker15:35K. Miller16:01

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere13:34A. Nikishin12:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdaySeth Jarvis CAR Turns 24 that day1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.7, CAR 3.3	LAK 2, CAR 3
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	LAK 23.8, CAR 30.4	LAK 13, CAR 34
Win chance	CAR 59%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.8	2	0.80	1	31%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	2	0.79	0	27%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	2	0.75	1	27%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.4	2	0.80	1	31%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.4	0	0.52	0	21%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.3	0	0.71	0	28%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.3	5	0.90	1	31%	1
CAR S. Walker	1.8	0	0.22	0	6%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	1.8	1	0.40	0	16%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	1.8	1	0.56	1	19%	1
LAK T. Moore	1.8	1	0.43	0	18%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	1	0.61	2	10%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.7	1	0.54	0	23%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.7	4	0.44	0	9%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.7	1	0.43	0	19%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.5	3	0.44	0	18%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	2	0.42	1	17%	1
CAR K. Miller	1.4	1	0.37	0	7%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	1	0.26	0	7%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.3	3	0.31	0	6%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	3	0.39	0	15%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.3	1	0.36	0	16%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.3	0	0.52	0	22%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.2	2	0.30	1	6%	1
LAK D. Doughty	1.2	0	0.39	0	9%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.2	3	0.24	0	12%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.1	1	0.28	0	11%	0
LAK T. Ward	1.1	0	0.32	0	13%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.0	0	0.59	0	18%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	1	0.27	0	13%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	0.9	1	0.18	0	3%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.9	1	0.17	1	7%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.7	0	0.16	0	3%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.7	1	0.18	1	9%	1
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.6	0	0.16	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.