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Game Recap
LAK5
CBJ4
LAK beat CBJ 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.51 expected goals to 2.07. B. Dumoulin led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). K. Marchenko had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. A. Forsberg stopped 28 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| CBJ | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 6:46LAKS. Laughton0.28 xG
- 1st 14:48LAKA. Panarin0.10 xG
- 1st 17:35CBJC. Garland0.10 xG
- 2nd 10:53CBJD. Mateychuk0.02 xG
- 2nd 12:13CBJC. Garland0.10 xG
- 2nd 14:09LAKA. Kempe0.23 xG
- 3rd 10:07LAKB. Dumoulin0.13 xG
- 3rd 18:04CBJK. MarchenkoPP0.10 xG
- OT 2:34LAKA. Kempe0.10 xG
Team Stats
LAKCBJ
31Shots on goal32
3.51Expected goals2.07
65Shot attempts56
235v5 shots on goal20
0/3Power play1/4
25Hits12
13Blocked shots18
8Penalty minutes6
18Giveaways15
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 3.51 xGCBJ 2.07 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 21:19 | 4:43 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:02 | 4:01 |
| S. Laughton | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 15:09 | 1:41 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:48 | 4:04 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:07 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 6:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:32 | 2:47 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 4 | 21:04 | 3:14 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:57 | 1:54 |
| J. Wright | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:00 |
| T. Ward | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 6:06 | 0:51 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:01 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:58 | 1:44 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:21 | 0:25 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:01 | 4:35 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 32 | 28 | 4 | .875 | 62:34 | Win |
| D. Kuemper | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Garland | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 | 2:22 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:51 | 6:01 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 17:21 | 2:49 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:37 | 4:50 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:04 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:04 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 21:44 | 4:37 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:37 | 4:43 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:04 | 2:30 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:31 | 0:04 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 29:04 | 6:04 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 23:07 | 1:17 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 24:08 | 1:20 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:29 | 0:00 |
| E. Gudbranson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 31 | 26 | 5 | .839 | 62:34 | OT loss |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
LAK
Line 1T. Moore15:30A. Laferriere15:52Q. Byfield16:18
Line 2A. Kopitar14:27A. Panarin15:11A. Kempe13:24
Line 3A. Turcotte10:07J. Wright11:08S. Laughton10:56
Line 4S. Helenius6:47T. Ward5:15J. Malott4:55
Pair 1D. Doughty15:13M. Anderson16:14
Pair 2B. Dumoulin16:41C. Ceci15:22
Pair 3B. Clarke15:51J. Edmundson14:04
CBJ
Line 1K. Marchenko14:53A. Fantilli16:05M. Marchment14:54
Line 2M. Olivier11:11C. Sillinger11:33C. Coyle8:31
Line 3S. Monahan11:01K. Johnson10:34C. Garland9:43
Line 4B. Jenner12:06M. Wood9:27I. Lundestrom9:47
Pair 1D. Severson20:39Z. Werenski19:53
Pair 2I. Provorov17:11D. Mateychuk15:55
Pair 3E. Gudbranson5:02D. Fabbro14:50
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 3.0, CBJ 3.2 | LAK 5, CBJ 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 27.5, CBJ 29.5 | LAK 31, CBJ 32 |
| Win chance | CBJ 54% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK A. Panarin | 3.2 | 2 | 1.22 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.2 | 3 | 0.91 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.1 | 5 | 0.96 | 2 | 35% | 2 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.8 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.6 | 6 | 0.79 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.6 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 2.3 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.2 | 4 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.1 | 3 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Marchment | 1.9 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.9 | 0 | 0.69 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 1.8 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Garland | 1.8 | 3 | 0.48 | 2 | 17% | 2 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 1.8 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.7 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.6 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.5 | 4 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.5 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.4 | 3 | 0.77 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| LAK T. Ward | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.3 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK S. Laughton | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| CBJ M. Wood | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.2 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| CBJ E. Gudbranson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.8 | 2 | 0.21 | 3 | 4% | 1 |
| CBJ I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.