Game Recap: LAK 1, CGY 3, November 11, 2024

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Game Recap

LAK1

FinalMon, Nov 11, 2024Every game that night

CGY3

CGY beat LAK 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.97 expected goals to 2.12. M. Backlund led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Zary had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. D. Wolf stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	0	0	1	1
CGY	0	2	1	3

2nd 10:42CGYM. Backlund0.08 xG
2nd 11:18CGYJ. Huberdeau0.20 xG
3rd 17:29LAKT. Moore0.11 xG
3rd 19:40CGYK. RooneyEN0.69 xG

Team Stats

LAKCGY

29Shots on goal28

2.12Expected goals2.97

79Shot attempts59

275v5 shots on goal22

0/1Power play0/2

25Hits23

18Blocked shots36

9Penalty minutes9

18Giveaways15

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 2.12 xGCGY 2.97 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK28 on goal, 1 scored

CGY28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	18:40	2:00
T. Moore	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	17:31	1:31
Q. Byfield	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	2	16:55	2:00
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	20:10	2:00
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	16:27	2:00
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	2	15:37	0:00
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:05	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:26	0:00
T. Lewis	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:42	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:31	0:00
A. Thomas	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	10:58	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	5	10:49	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	4	1	4	-1	0	24:18	2:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	21:11	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	20:53	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	20:18	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	19:29	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	27	25	2	.926	57:59	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Backlund	C	1	1	2	3	1	1	+2	0	18:40	2:24
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	17:58	2:43
J. Huberdeau	LW	1	0	1	2	3	4	+1	0	15:51	1:22
M. Coronato	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	15:17	1:16
K. Rooney	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	11:00	0:20
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	18:58	1:17
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	5	1	1	-1	0	18:46	2:38
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	17:54	1:15
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	14:32	0:00
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	12:30	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:07	0:00
J. Kirkland	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	5	7:40	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	7	+1	0	23:50	2:25
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	+1	0	21:42	1:28
D. Miromanov	D	0	0	0	3	0	6	+1	0	20:44	0:19
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	20:31	0:00
T. Barrie	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	17:30	2:33
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	4	14:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	29	28	1	.966	59:57	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 3.2, CGY 3.0	LAK 1, CGY 3
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	LAK 29.1, CGY 28.8	LAK 29, CGY 28
Win chance	LAK 52%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.1	2	0.83	0	29%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.9	3	0.90	0	33%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.6	3	0.88	0	28%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.4	2	0.58	1	22%	1
CGY M. Backlund	2.3	3	0.53	2	19%	1
LAK W. Foegele	2.2	1	0.50	0	20%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.2	4	0.65	0	28%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.2	1	0.54	0	23%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	1	0.56	0	12%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.0	2	0.51	0	21%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.9	4	0.54	0	8%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	1.9	1	0.60	1	17%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	0	0.58	0	11%	0
CGY M. Coronato	1.8	1	0.39	1	18%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.8	0	0.59	0	20%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.7	5	0.56	0	21%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.7	2	0.73	1	20%	1
CGY A. Kuzmenko	1.6	0	0.68	1	27%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	2	0.84	1	24%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.4	3	0.28	0	7%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.4	1	0.32	0	11%	0
LAK A. Thomas	1.4	2	0.39	0	16%	0
LAK T. Lewis	1.4	3	0.23	0	10%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.3	0	0.33	0	7%	0
CGY T. Barrie	1.2	0	0.38	0	6%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.2	0	0.32	0	4%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.1	3	0.26	0	5%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.0	1	0.23	0	6%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	0	0.25	0	3%	0
LAK A. Lee	0.9	1	0.20	0	8%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.9	1	0.13	0	3%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.7	1	0.12	0	8%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.7	2	0.12	1	7%	1
CGY J. Kirkland	0.6	1	0.29	0	9%	0
LAK A. Englund	0.4	0	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.