CGY beat LAK 2-1, with the chances close: 2.49 expected goals to 2.59. LAK outshot CGY 32 to 18. M. Coronato led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Turcotte had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. D. Wolf stopped 31 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 6:19LAKJ. Moverare0.03 xG
- 2nd 8:58CGYM. Coronato0.10 xG
- 3rd 4:36CGYJ. HuberdeauPP0.19 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 2.59 xGCGY 2.49 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:56 | 3:14 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21:31 | 5:37 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:15 | 3:11 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:26 | 3:11 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:14 | 2:52 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:08 | 2:37 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:10 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 2:13 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:14 | 0:04 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Moverare | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:20 | 0:37 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23:42 | 0:12 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:07 | 2:44 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18:38 | 3:18 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:48 | 0:00 |
| K. Burroughs | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Rittich | 18 | 16 | 2 | .889 | 59:31 | Loss |
| D. Kuemper | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Coronato | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:09 | 4:30 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:25 | 4:53 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 | 4:03 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:19 | 2:15 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:39 | 2:15 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:39 | 3:18 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:20 | 3:46 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 1:34 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:26 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 10 | 7:20 | 0:00 |
| W. Duehr | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 24:06 | 4:50 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21:14 | 3:19 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:05 | 0:47 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:18 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:10 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 2.8, CGY 2.9 | LAK 1, CGY 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 26.6, CGY 28.8 | LAK 32, CGY 18 |
| Win chance | CGY 52% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.2 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.0 | 5 | 0.97 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.7 | 4 | 0.82 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.5 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.3 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.3 | 5 | 0.51 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.2 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.2 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.2 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.0 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.9 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.8 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.7 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.7 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 2 | 0.85 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY J. Pelletier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.2 | 4 | 0.40 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.9 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY W. Duehr | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.7 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 2% | 1 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK A. Englund | 0.3 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| LAK K. Burroughs | 0.2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.