Game Recap: LAK 2, CGY 3 (SO), March 24, 2026

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Game Recap

LAK2

Final/SOTue, Mar 24, 2026Every game that night

CGY3

CGY beat LAK 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.46 expected goals to 2.05. Q. Byfield led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Z. Parekh had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. D. Wolf stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
LAK	1	0	1	0	2
CGY	0	1	1	1	3

1st 2:35LAKQ. Byfield0.18 xG
2nd 14:50CGYO. Määttä0.09 xG
3rd 0:17LAKQ. Byfield0.16 xG
3rd 13:02CGYZ. ParekhPP0.14 xG

Team Stats

LAKCGY

25Shots on goal23

2.05Expected goals2.46

54Shot attempts51

195v5 shots on goal15

0/2Power play1/3

22Hits19

14Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways15

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 2.05 xGCGY 2.46 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK24 on goal, 2 scored

CGY23 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	2	0	2	3	1	0	+1	0	19:50	1:39
A. Laferriere	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	20:10	2:21
T. Moore	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	19:33	1:55
J. Armia	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	10:24	0:51
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	22:05	3:06
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:45	1:58
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:46	3:04
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	16:05	0:55
J. Wright	RW	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	12:59	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:59	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	8:15	0:00
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	7:16	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	1	1	3	1	3	+1	0	25:48	1:17
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	+1	0	21:15	0:03
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	20:49	2:44
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	19:28	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	4	17:30	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:08	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	23	21	2	.913	65:00	OT loss
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Coronato	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	19:12	3:35
M. Gridin	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:44	2:58
V. Olofsson	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	16:09	2:01
R. Strome	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	15:18	2:02
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	0	19:54	3:12
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	19:25	2:34
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	19:08	3:31
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	18:59	2:23
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:05	0:00
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:12	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	0	4	2	-1	0	9:03	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	8:26	0:00
O. Määttä	D	1	0	1	1	0	4	-1	0	20:25	0:00
Z. Parekh	D	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	17:43	3:40
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	27:42	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	22:41	0:04
H. Brzustewicz	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	16:50	1:55
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	25	23	2	.920	64:49	Win
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1A. Kopitar15:56A. Panarin16:12A. Kempe14:31

Line 2T. Moore14:06A. Laferriere14:12Q. Byfield14:16

Line 3M. Joseph11:56J. Wright12:56S. Laughton13:05

Line 4J. Armia7:50J. Malott7:16S. Helenius8:15

Pair 1D. Doughty18:36M. Anderson18:33

Pair 2J. Edmundson16:34B. Clarke16:51

Pair 3B. Dumoulin13:38C. Ceci16:27

CGY

Line 1M. Backlund15:12B. Coleman14:28J. Farabee14:07

Line 2M. Coronato14:01M. Gridin13:58M. Frost13:39

Line 3R. Strome13:05V. Olofsson12:41Y. Sharangovich12:42

Line 4M. Pospisil9:12A. Klapka9:03R. Lomberg8:26

Pair 1Z. Whitecloud21:46K. Bahl19:59

Pair 2O. Määttä18:35H. Brzustewicz14:31

Pair 3J. Hanley13:19Z. Parekh12:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.9, CGY 2.8	LAK 2, CGY 3
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	LAK 28.0, CGY 28.8	LAK 25, CGY 23
Win chance	LAK 51%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Panarin	3.1	3	1.21	0	35%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.9	0	0.91	0	34%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.8	1	0.58	1	23%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.5	5	0.59	0	24%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.5	3	0.53	1	22%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.4	0	0.54	1	21%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.4	3	0.54	0	19%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.2	3	0.61	2	21%	2
CGY M. Gridin	2.0	1	0.50	1	16%	0
LAK B. Clarke	2.0	0	0.50	0	9%	0
CGY V. Olofsson	1.9	1	0.47	1	21%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.8	3	0.43	0	21%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.7	1	0.43	0	18%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.7	0	0.48	0	17%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.6	0	0.77	0	23%	0
LAK S. Laughton	1.5	1	0.39	0	16%	0
CGY R. Strome	1.5	0	0.50	1	15%	0
LAK J. Wright	1.4	2	0.20	0	10%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.4	3	0.42	1	10%	0
CGY H. Brzustewicz	1.1	2	0.21	0	6%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.1	0	0.23	0	7%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.1	0	0.28	1	12%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.1	5	0.25	1	6%	1
CGY A. Klapka	1.0	0	0.26	0	11%	0
CGY O. Määttä	1.0	1	0.27	1	4%	1
LAK J. Edmundson	1.0	2	0.19	0	4%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	1.0	0	0.19	0	8%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.0	1	0.22	0	6%	0
LAK M. Joseph	1.0	2	0.28	0	9%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.9	1	0.16	0	6%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.9	0	0.25	0	4%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	3	0.24	0	5%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.8	0	0.19	0	9%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.8	1	0.15	0	3%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.7	0	0.18	0	3%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.