Game Recap: LAK 1, CGY 3, April 16, 2026

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Game Recap

LAK1

FinalThu, Apr 16, 2026Every game that night

CGY3

CGY beat LAK 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.46 expected goals to 3.46. Z. Whitecloud led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). T. Moore had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. A. Sergeev stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	0	1	0	1
CGY	0	1	2	3

2nd 5:21CGYM. FrostPP0.11 xG
2nd 6:43LAKQ. Byfield0.23 xG
3rd 6:08CGYZ. Parekh0.03 xG
3rd 19:20CGYJ. FarabeeEN0.41 xG

Team Stats

LAKCGY

28Shots on goal21

3.46Expected goals1.46

69Shot attempts47

265v5 shots on goal14

0/2Power play1/3

12Hits16

17Blocked shots22

8Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways26

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 3.46 xGCGY 1.46 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK27 on goal, 1 scored

CGY19 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	21:51	2:57
A. Laferriere	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	20:02	1:19
T. Moore	LW	0	1	1	7	0	0	+1	0	18:01	1:03
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	20:31	2:59
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	20:26	3:05
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	19:41	2:53
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:05	0:55
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:33	1:03
J. Wright	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:38	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	8:33	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	8:06	0:00
T. Ward	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	6:10	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	21:39	1:26
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	21:33	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	19:34	2:20
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	18:26	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	16:44	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	16:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	20	18	2	.900	58:35	Loss
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Farabee	LW	1	0	1	5	0	1	+1	2	20:40	4:10
M. Coronato	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	19:24	4:08
M. Frost	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:55	3:57
M. Gridin	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	18:34	4:08
R. Strome	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	12:56	1:32
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	16:37	0:00
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:22	0:02
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:13	0:00
R. Kerins	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:26	1:36
A. Suniev	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	11:46	1:47
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:21	1:19
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	9:03	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	2	2	2	3	6	+2	0	20:30	0:00
Z. Parekh	D	1	0	1	2	3	1	+2	0	22:10	3:43
O. Määttä	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	22:12	0:17
H. Brzustewicz	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:53	2:01
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-1	0	16:08	0:00
A. Wiebe	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Sergeev	28	27	1	.964	60:00	Win
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1A. Kopitar15:06A. Kempe15:52A. Panarin15:56

Line 2Q. Byfield15:06A. Laferriere15:10T. Moore14:52

Line 3J. Armia11:37S. Laughton10:42J. Wright10:12

Line 4M. Joseph8:00S. Helenius8:06T. Ward6:10

Pair 1D. Doughty18:33M. Anderson19:02

Pair 2B. Dumoulin15:14C. Ceci15:12

Pair 3B. Clarke15:49J. Edmundson13:36

CGY

Line 1M. Frost14:11M. Coronato14:21M. Gridin13:37

Line 2M. Backlund14:01J. Farabee15:04B. Coleman14:22

Line 3R. Kerins10:50A. Klapka10:02Y. Sharangovich10:54

Line 4R. Strome10:01A. Suniev9:59V. Olofsson9:03

Pair 1Z. Whitecloud16:27Z. Parekh17:51

Pair 2O. Määttä18:07H. Brzustewicz16:54

Pair 3B. Pachal14:41A. Wiebe13:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayDustin Wolf CGY Turns 25 that day0 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 3.1, CGY 2.8	LAK 1, CGY 3
Total goals	5.9	4
Shots on goal	LAK 29.6, CGY 27.5	LAK 28, CGY 21
Win chance	LAK 55%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Laferriere	2.9	2	0.65	1	24%	0
LAK A. Panarin	2.8	2	1.11	0	33%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.8	2	0.91	0	34%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.7	0	0.61	0	25%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.5	7	0.56	1	22%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.3	2	0.56	1	20%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.3	2	0.62	1	23%	1
CGY M. Backlund	2.1	0	0.48	0	17%	0
CGY M. Gridin	2.1	0	0.57	1	17%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.9	0	0.48	0	8%	0
CGY V. Olofsson	1.8	1	0.47	0	20%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.7	2	0.51	1	18%	1
CGY J. Farabee	1.7	5	0.44	1	19%	1
LAK A. Kopitar	1.6	3	0.75	0	23%	0
LAK S. Laughton	1.6	2	0.36	0	15%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.6	1	0.40	0	19%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.5	2	0.31	1	9%	1
LAK J. Wright	1.4	0	0.20	0	8%	0
CGY A. Suniev	1.4	1	0.32	0	12%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.4	1	0.43	0	9%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.3	1	0.31	0	14%	0
CGY R. Strome	1.2	0	0.43	1	13%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	3	0.22	0	3%	0
CGY H. Brzustewicz	1.1	1	0.27	0	7%	0
CGY O. Määttä	1.1	2	0.35	0	5%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.0	1	0.25	0	10%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.0	2	0.24	2	6%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	1	0.26	0	5%	0
CGY R. Kerins	0.9	0	0.43	0	12%	0
LAK T. Ward	0.9	1	0.17	0	8%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.8	1	0.18	0	4%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.8	0	0.16	0	3%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.7	0	0.19	0	3%	0
LAK M. Joseph	0.6	1	0.19	0	6%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.6	0	0.14	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.